Stocks Slightly Lower into Close on US Economic Data, Oil Decline, Inflation Jitters, Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.9 -.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,960.0 +11.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.21 -.33%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 -.09%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 52.1 +6.6%

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 -16.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .88 +17.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.59 +52.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.72 -.05%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 475.29 +.90%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.41 -1.19%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 96.25 +3.5 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.18 -.72%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 188.76 -.28%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 187.07 +.12%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.75 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 17.5 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  76.5 +1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.75 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.45 +.05%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 144.0 -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 159.45 USD/Metric Tonne -.18%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.5 -37.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 92.3 -.1 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.1 -9.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +3.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -166 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +24 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.75 +1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 31.0 -.75 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.42 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,949.0 +1.0 point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.2 +.93%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.20%.

• S&P 500 futures -.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (JBL)/.82

After the Close:

• (COUP)/-.11
• (CRWD)/.08
• (LEN)/1.74
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.4% gain in Jan.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +2.5% gain in Jan.
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Feb. is estimated to fall -.5% versus a +5.3% gain in Jan.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +5.9% gain in Jan.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Feb. is estimated to fall -.5% versus a +6.1% gain in Jan.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.9% gain in Jan.
• Capacity Utilization for Feb. is estimated to fall to 75.5% versus 75.6% in Jan.
• Manufacturing Production for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.0% gain in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in Dec.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for March is estimated at 84 versus 84 in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German ZEW Index, $24B 20Y Treasury auction, weekly US retail sales reports, BofA Industrials Conference, UBS Energy Conference, Oppenheimer Healthcare Conference,  could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on Stable Long-Term Rates, Economic Optimism, Short-Covering, Airline/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.2 -2.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,933.0 -33.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.65 -.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 +.19%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.40 +1.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 +10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .70 -4.11%

• NYSE Arms .94 +62.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.26 -.86%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 470.26 +.71%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.10 +.15%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 92.75 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.64 -1.64%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 190.38 +.56%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 186.84 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.25 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 17.0 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 75.0 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.40 -.02%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 148.0 +8.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 159.95 USD/Metric Tonne +1.18%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 79.0 +1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 92.4 -22.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.1 -9.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -136 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +73 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/industrial/tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• Rate-Hike Bets Offer Cushion After Emerging-Market Currency Rout.
• Global Baby Drought of Covid-19 Crisis Risks Population Crunch.  
• Merkel’s Party Heads for State Defeats and It Could Get Worse.  
• AstraZeneca’s Vaccine Disaster Deepens on Clots, Nationalism.    
• Asia Stocks Set for Steady Start, Yields in Focus: Markets Wrap.
• Gulf Equity Markets Rise, Shrugging Off Lower Crude: Inside EM.
• Global Central Banks Confront Enthusiasm of Investors: Eco Week.  
• U.S. Deaths Fall; Fauci Warns on Vaccine Hesitancy: Virus Update.  
• Yellen Says U.S. Inflation Risk Remains Small, ‘Manageable’.  
• Crypto’s Next Big Thing Raises Questions While the Price Surges.  
• 2,000 Flights Canceled in Denver as Heavy Snowstorm Arrives.  
• Fed to Hike Rates in 2023 But Dots Won’t Show It, Economists Say.
• Wells Fargo, JPMorgan See Ire Over Timing of Stimulus Checks.  
• A By-the-Mile Tax on Driving Gains Steam as a Way to Fund U.S. Roads.
• Stripe Valued at $95 Billion in Latest Funding Round.

Wall Street Journal:

• Short Sellers Boost Bets Against SPACs.
• The Month Coronavirus Unraveled American Business.
• White House Weighs How to Pay for Long-Term Economic Program.
• My Fellow Democrats, Let Earmarks Stay in the Dustbin of History.
• The Next Big-Tech Fights Are in State Capitals.
• How One School District Bridged the Divide and Reopened Classrooms.
  

Fox News:

• Riots, arrests in LA, Seattle, Portland mark Breonna Taylor raid anniversary.
• What FEMA response to border crisis reveals about White House expectation for immigration: senator. 
• Pelosi takes aim at former president for Biden's border surge, but stats don't back Nancy's claim.

CNBC:  

•  Canoo’s new electric pickup truck converts to a camper — take a look.
•  Wall Street’s top analysts see these stocks as compelling plays. 

Zero Hedge: 

• Biden Urges 'Police Reform' As Breonna Taylor Protests Turn Violent Across The Nation
• Fifty Basis Points To Disaster.
• We're In A Bubble That's Too Big To Fail.
• Bulls "Rush In" With More Stimulus On The Way.
• "Virtually Every Indicator" Shows Pandemic Sets Back Childhood Development: UNICEF.
• Europe Stays In Lockdown Mode.
• China's Arctic Ambitions Pose Growing Threat To Canadian Interests, Top Defence Official Warns.
• Explained: The 3 Major COVID-19 Variants.
• Free Speech: And... It's Gone.
• Tesla Killer? Spy Photos Of First Ford F-150 All-Electric Pickup Emerge.
• Newt Gingrich Locked Out Of Twitter For Criticizing Biden's Immigration Policy.
• Air Travel Hits Highest Level In A Year Amid Eased Restrictions, TSA Says.
• Goldman's Clients Are Asking If There Are Any Cheap Stocks Left.
• Border Crisis Explodes: Texas Child Migrant Facility At 700% Capacity As ICE Begs For Volunteers; White House Denies Lawyers Access.
• Fact vs. Fiction: Understatement Of Housing Inflation Exceeds "Bubble" Levels.
• China Splurges On Iranian Oil Despite US Sanctions. 
• Fentanyl Flowing Into United States At Record Volume.
• The Bubble Of Everything: How A Debt-Driven Economy Creates More Frequent Crises.
• Cash-Out Home Refinancings Hit Highest Level Since Global Financial Crisis.

MarketWatch.com:  

• Stripe’s valuation soars to $95 billion after $600 million funding round..
  

NewsMax:  

• Biden Deploys FEMA as Migrant Children Wave Surges.
• Sen. Blackburn to Newsmax TV: COVID Package a Blue State 'Slush Fund'.
• Schumer, Teachers Union Chief Got Billions for Private Schools.
• Economist Stephen Moore Slams Biden for Slow Pace of Reopening Economy.
• Cornyn: Criminal Cartels From Around World Expediting Immigration Surge.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Governor Abbott: Biden Admin Will Not Tell Texas Officials How Many Illegals Entering State Have Coronavirus (Video).
  
• “[China’s] Xi Jinping Now Knows He Can Spread Disease Virtually Without Cost” – Gordan Chang on China’s Actions with the Coronavirus.
• For Two Years UK Testing New Surveillance Technology that Tracks and Stores Web Browsing for Every British Citizen.
• Portland Police Kettle Large Crowd of Antifa Terrorists After Another Night of Rioting – Antifa Stunned, “We Are Boxed In” (VIDEO).
• JUST IN: DHS Chief Orders FEMA to Address Border Crisis Created by Joe Biden’s Disastrous Policies.
• HORROR: Father Faces Arrest and Jail Time For Trying To Stop Doctors From Transitioning His Middle School Daughter To A Boy [VIDEO].

The Epoch Times:

• IOC Accepts CCP’s Offer of China-Made Vaccines, Team Japan Won’t Take Them.
• China Moves to Ban After-School Programs in Effort to Monopolize Communist Brainwashing: Expert. 
• Court Ruling Suspends US Ban on Investment in Xiaomi.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.5 +1.0 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 32.5 +.75 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.39 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,023.0 -6.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.45 +.15%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.42%.
• S&P 500 futures +.27%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (HQY)/.40

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for March is estimated to rise to 14.5 versus 12.1 in Feb. 

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The JPMorgan Industrials Conference, India Trade Balance report, (LLY) business update and the Roth Capital Growth Stock Conference could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• U.K. Says China Not Complying With Hong Kong Handover Treaty.
• ‘Stimmy’ Is Setting Stage for Next Wave of Retail Stock Frenzy.
• Tapping Day-Trader Cash, ETF Launches Go From Risky to Roaring.  
• Movie Theaters Set to Rebound in 2021, But Only to 1980s Levels.  
• U.S. Outbreak Eases Further; Norway Reports Clots: Virus Update.  
• Market Manipulation Chatter Rises as Digital Art Scene Explodes.
• Flutter Considering Spinoff and IPO of U.S. Betting Unit FanDuel.
• Lilly Presents Trial Data on Alzheimer Drug Showing Promise.
  

Wall Street Journal:

• Dr. Seuss, Meet the Sanitized Sleuths Known as the Hardy Boys.
• Cuomo and the Covid Death Count.
• Xiaomi Wins Court Ruling Halting U.S. Investment Ban.
• China’s Youthful, Debt-Fueled Spending Spree Sparks Reckoning.
• Covid-19 Has Opened Doors for Some Entrepreneurs.

CNBC:

• Crude to $100: Trader makes the case for a spike in oil prices.
• IRS started processing stimulus checks Friday, money begins arriving in accounts.
• Federal agency warns that Tesla tests unfinished driverless tech on its users.
• Here are all the states that will vote whether to legalize sports betting this year.
• How a stay-at-home year accelerated three trends in the advertising industry.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (PFE), (JNJ), (WD), (LLY), (HGV), (VAC), (TNL), (BMY), (SBUX), (MCD), (YUM), (ABBV), .
• Had bearish commentary on (TSLA), (CPNG) and (ZM).

Fox News:

• Exclusive pics show migrants at TX processing site, as Biden dodges reality of situation.

Newsmax:   

• Children Packed Into Border Patrol Tent for Days on End. 
• US to Respond to SolarWinds Hackers in Weeks: Senior Official.
  

Zero Hedge:

• The Founders Warned Us About Abuses Like H.R. 1.
• There Is A Huge Quant Rebalance Next Friday: Here's Who Wins And Who Loses.
• Being A Passive Investor Has Never Been So Risky.
• Portland Police Surround 100 Rioters After Group Smashes Windows Downtown.
• 65-Year Old Texas Woman Tackled, Arrested For Refusing To Mask A Day After Abbott Lifted Mandate.
• The Cannibalization Is Complete: Only Inedible Zombies Remain.
• Rigged To Fail: From Lies To Populism, From Musk To Powell.
• Bitcoin Hits $60,000 For The First Time Ever, Crushing $250MM Worth Of Shorts.
• Schumer, Gillibrand Demand Cuomo Resign As 7th Accuser Comes Forward.
• Ban On 205 Different ‘Assault Weapons’ Introduced By Sen. Feinstein.
• How California Is Embracing Mandatory Racial-Injustice Study For All Of Its 1.7 Million High Schoolers.
• New York Colleges Under Fire After Targeting Conservative Students And Groups.
• Building A New Home? Soaring Lumber Prices Adds $24,000 To New Construction Build.
• Why A Green New Deal Is More Expensive Than Joe Biden Realizes.
• Manhattan Leases Surge On Record Concessions And Plunging Rents.
• Taibbi: The Sovietization Of The American Press.
• What's Next: Here Comes Biden's $2 Trillion Infrastructure Package.
• LA Teachers Union That Says "Unsafe" To Return To School, Urges Members To Hide Vacation Plans.
• Bitcoin, Banks, & Small Caps Surge On Stimmies; Bonds & The Buck Battered.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Poll: Trump-Backed Herschel Walker Leads Warnock In 2022 Georgia Senate Race.
• Stacey Abrams Pressures Businesses To Back Her Anti-Voter Integrity Efforts In Georgia.
• Minneapolis Reaches $27 Million Settlement with George Floyd’s Family.
• Joe Biden’s Groping, Fondling and Sniffing of Children and Women CAUGHT ON VIDEO Makes Andrew Cuomo Look Like a Novice.
• EXCLUSIVE: Accurate List of 2020 Election Fraud Cases Shows 83 Cases Total, 18 Still Active – President Trump/GOP Prevailed in 14 Out of 21 Cases Decided on Merits.
• Marjorie Taylor Greene Stands Up To Biden – Introduces “Protect America First Act” To End Biden’s Border Crisis.
• Dr. Deborah Birx Is Set to Make Big Dollars in Her Latest Move: Will Join the G. W. Bush Institute and the Private Sector – Pushing COVID-Cleaning Air Purifiers.
• Breaking: Green Bay Protesters Demand Investigation After News Breaks that Democrat Operative Was Given Keys to Ballot Counting Room.
• EXCLUSIVE: New Report on 2020 Election Shows Nearly Impossible “Statistical Contrasts” that “Merit Closer Investigation”.

The Epoch Times:

• West Must Stop Ceding Strategic Initiative to China, Russia: UK Commander.
• Hollywood Executive: From ‘Feeding the Dragon’ to Waking People Up.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).