Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -3.4% 2) Alt Energy -2.8% 3) Energy -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PRIM, STEP, PAYA, DG, MAXR, ARRY, AFIB, RIDE, DLTH, FPI and TBIO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DG 2) HOG 3) EXPE 4) UAA 5) MDB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RIDE 2) TBIO 3) NKLA 4) ADNT 5) CLX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Banks +3.2% 2) Steel +2.1% 3) Road & Rail +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• UPST, WSM, VCEL, VUZI, HIG, CXP, VSTO, LNC, PPL, RH, CFG, OLN, OTRK, CARR, STL, BAC, APPH, KEY, PFSI, VLY, FITB, WFC, SCHN, REKR, WFC, HA, AMP, MLHR, NWSA, ESRT and LC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SINO 2) HIG 3) REKR 4) INFN 5) FIVE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WSM 2) UPST 3) SIG 4) CSIQ 5) LYFT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -10.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 40.6% of Issues Advancing, 56.4% Declining
• 269 New 52-Week Highs, 13 New Lows
• 89.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,125.0 +116.0 points
• Vix 19.9 +3.6%
• Total Put/Call .58 -20.6%
• TRIN/Arms .65 +22.6%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.5 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 30.25 -1.0 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.59 +.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,034.0 +25.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.9 -.66%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.55%.

• S&P 500 futures +.33%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.50%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ACN)/1.90
• (CSIQ)/-.58
• (CMC)/.61
• (DG)/2.72
• (GIII)/.22
• (SIG)/3.54
• (TITN)/.13
• (WB)/.70
  

After the Close:

• (FDX)/3.25
• (NKE)/.75
• (OLLI)/.85
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 700K versus 712K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4034K versus 4144K prior.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for March is estimated to rise to 23.3 versus 23.1 in Feb.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, BoE rate decision, Langer Weekly Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, JPMorgan Auto Conference, (WDC) investor event, (NLS) investor day and the (VOD) investor breifing could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on More Dovish FOMC Commentary, Stable Long-Term Rates, Less Emerging Markets/US High Yld Debt Angst, Transport/Homebuiding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.3 -2.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,964.0 -7.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.88 +.51%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 +.9%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.9 -4.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 +1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .76 -14.6%

• NYSE Arms .43 -74.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.01 -1.77%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 480.33 +1.11%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.23 +1.48%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 98.0 +1.75 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 59.97 -.33%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 183.35 -2.9%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 187.05 -.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.25 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 16.75 -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  77.5 +1.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 74.75 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.53 +.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 147.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 158.80 USD/Metric Tonne -.71%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.3 -16.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 90.60 -1.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.8 -2.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -29 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +28 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +73 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical/biotech/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• U.S. Cautions Meeting With China Unlikely to Yield Breakthrough.
• Australia Small Business Failures Expected to Rise.  
• Investors Pile Pressure on Yield Curve Pioneers Japan, Australia.
• Asian Stocks Dip, Yields Edge Higher Awaiting Fed: Markets Wrap.  
• No Sweat Fed, Yellen Also Unfazed, Next Move for YCCers: Eco Day.
• Biden Wants Corporate Tax Hike, Help for Families Making $110K, Aide Says.  
• Fed’s Dot Plot May Back Up Powell’s Patience: Decision-Day Guide.

Wall Street Journal:

• Uber to Reclassify U.K. Drivers in Win for Labor Activists.
• Gyms Are Reopening, but Everything’s Different.
• College Admission Season Is Crazier Than Ever. That Could Change Who Gets In.
• FTC Prepares to Take Tougher Stance on Pharmaceutical Mergers.
• Illegal Border Crossings Near Two-Decade High, Mayorkas Says.

Fox News:   

• EXCLUSIVE: Trump fumes about Biden's border crisis, reveals why he believes it will get much worse.
  

CNBC.com:

• Stocks making the biggest moves after the bell: CrowdStrike, Kodak, Coupa Software & more.
• The Fed must walk a fine line Wednesday as financial markets hang in the balance.
• Palantir CEO rips Wall Street as having a ‘destructive’ and ‘corrosive’ short-term focus.
• High-end retail stocks are showing signs of more upside, Jim Cramer says.

MarketWatch.com: 

• Plug Power to restate financial statements, stock plunges.  
• Robinhood back in Capitol Hill spotlight amid surge in GameStop shares.

Zero Hedge:

• "All Hell Could Break Loose": The Fate Of The Market Is In The Median 2023 Dot.
• McConnell Flips Out Over Filibuster, Threatens 'Scorched Earth Senate' If Dems Pursue Power Grab.
• Chinese Tech Giants Build Tools To Bypass Apple's New Privacy Controls.
• Alaska Republican Party Censures Sen. Lisa Murkowski, Vows To Primary Her.
• US Intelligence "On Alert" As North Korea Poised For First Weapons Test Of Biden Era.
• Inflation-Cagematch: Guggenheim Battles Bridgewater Over Bond Moves From Here.
• The Sources Who Lie And The Reporters Who Protect Them.
• Former State Dept Lead Investigator Says COVID-19 Escaped From Wuhan Lab, May Have Been Bioweapons Accident.
• Furious China Moves To Counter "Turmoil In Financial Markets" Caused By "Massive" Biden Stimulus.
• Bill Gross Pressing GameStop Short After Making $10 Million, Says He Expects 3-4% Inflation.
• California Teachers' Unions Discuss Using COVID-Relief Cash For Bonuses, Trips To Hawaii.
• WTI Jumps Back Above $65 After Crude Stocks Unexpectedly Dropped.
• Stimulus Addiction Disorder: The Debt-Disposable Earnings Pyramid.
• Big-Tech Trumps Small Caps As Inflation Outlook Hits 13-Year High.

Newsmax:    

• Russia, Iran Targeted the 2020 Election: Agencies.
• Manchin First Top Democrat to Call Border Situation a ‘Crisis’.  
• Kat Cammack to Newsmax TV: Biden ‘Doing Everything’ to Circumvent Congress.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• WATCH: Dem Senator Caught on Hot Mic Admitting Democrats Will Ram Through Trillions in New Spending without GOP Support.
• Never Forget: Liz Cheney Lashed Out at President Trump Over Georgia Call That We Now Know Was a Complete Fraud Perpetrated by a Never-Trumper.
• EXCLUSIVE: NYC Judge Removes 6-Year-Old From Mother Because She Didn’t Wear a Mask While Dropping Her Off at School.
• Family Kicked Off Flight Because Four-Year-Old Autistic Son Wouldn’t Wear Mask, Despite Note From Doctor.
• China’s Massive Infiltration of U.S. Virus Research Laboratories.
• Biden’s DHS Chief Announces He is Opening New Doors For Migrants, Expanding Central American Minors Program as Border Crisis Worsens.

The Epoch Times:

• ‘Disinformation’: US Rejects Chinese State-Run Media Reports About American Diplomats in Hong Kong
• China’s Useful Elitists: Westerners Exploited for Beijing’s Domestic Image.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.25 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 31.25 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.42 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,991.0 +19.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.1 +.01%.
• FTSE 100 futures unch.

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CTAS)/2.23
• (SINA)/.86
  

After the Close:

• (FIVE)/2.11
• (MLHR)/.58
• (JEF)/.91
• (SMTC)/.48
• (WSM)/3.27
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Feb. is estimated to fall to 1562K versus 1580K in Jan.
• Building Permits for Feb. is estimated to fall to 1750K versus 1881K in Jan.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +2,076,910 barrels versus a +13,798,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,312,090 barrels versus a -11,869,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,477,090 barrels versus a -5,504,000 barrel decline the prior week.Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +5.26% versus a +13.0% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate at 0.00-.25%.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC press release, Eurozone Core Inflation report, Australia unemployment report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the Maxim Emerging Growth Conference could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.