Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.6% 2) Internet -1.2% 3) Software -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• NKE, MTSI, LEAP, KYMR, QS, MAX, SKLZ, FMTX, FATE, ALEC, RAD and EOLS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KWEB 2) NKE 3) RAD 4) RH 5) IIVI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RAD 2) VIAC 3) VLDR 4) XL 5) LH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +2.9% 2) Homebuilding +2.9% 3) Airlines +2.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OI, UPST, VUZI, NBIX, CERT, KBR, MP, LITE, CAL, SUMO, TRIP, BALY, CNXC, MAXR, ACCD, VERX, DRI, GDRX, RH, CLDT, CROX, FNKO, CLI, NUE, WSM, UAL, GPS and CUK
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PUMP 2) LIVX 3) NCR 4) RH 5) HOG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HWCC 2) KBR 3) DRI 4) RH 5) MAXR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sector Declining
• 22.3% of Issues Advancing, 75.2% Declining
• 18 New 52-Week Highs, 179 New Lows
• 85.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,287.0 -215.0 points
• Vix 23.5 +10.9%
• Total Put/Call .84 -2.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.29 -9.8%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                    

• North Korea May Have Fired Ballistic Missile, Japan Coast Guard Says.  
• Chinese Stocks’ 15% Plunge Shows What Happens When Stimulus Ends.
  
• A $60 Billion U.S. Stimulus Windfall Is Heading China’s Way.
• Massive Ship Blocking Suez Canal Paralyzes Trade for Second Day.  
• Best Shot at Unblocking Suez Canal May Not Come Until Monday.
  
• Asia Stocks Edge Up With U.S. Futures; Oil Wavers: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Pulls Back After Surge With Ship Still Blocking Suez Canal.  
• Blocked Canal, China’s U.S. Windfall, Turkey’s Governor: Eco Day.
• Migrant Children Will Be Housed at Two U.S. Military Bases.  
• N.Y. Pot Legalization Gets Fast Track on Cuomo-Lawmaker Deal.
• U.S. Cases Top 30 Million; U.K. Border Warning: Virus Update.
  
• Toilet Paper Is Next Likely Victim of World’s Container Crisis.

Wall Street Journal:

• Democrats Weigh Corporate, Personal Income Tax Increases.
• Herd Immunity Is Near, Despite Fauci’s Denial.
• Hot U.S. Economy, Supply Disruptions Pressure Factories.
• Gas Prices Climb Toward $3 a Gallon.
• Special Dollars for Dictators.
  

CNBC.com:

• Tech and GameStop losses have traders wondering if retail investors are losing interest in market.
• RH shares jump after furniture retailer reports earnings, sales beat.
• Cramer says GameStop remains overvalued, despite promising Q4 report.
• It’s time to boost exposure to consumer stocks amid a powerful economic recovery, Wells Fargo says.

Zero Hedge:

• Warren, Yellen Clash Over Whether BlackRock Deserves "Systemically Important" Label.
• JPMorgan Clients Are Worried That Ramp Capital Is Dead.
• The ESG Tide Is Turning: ValueAct's Ubben Calls BlackRock ESG Products "Misguided".
• North Korea Fires Two Ballistic Missiles.
• Why Is Biden Creating His Own Crises?
• Chinese Ridesharing Giant Didi Considers $100 Billion U.S. Listing.
• US Intelligence Community Increasingly Involving Itself In Domestic Politics: Greenwald.
• Here's How DC Statehood Could Backfire On Democrats. 
• Not The Onion: Bill Clinton To Host Chat With Kamala Harris On "Empowering Women".
• 42 Million People From Latin America Want To Migrate To USA.
• Tech Wrecks As Bitcoin, Black Gold, & The Buck Burst Higher.

Newsmax:

• Mexican President Says Biden to Blame for Border Crisis.
• Lindsey Graham Threatens to Shut Down Senate if Denied Access at Border.
• Politico Poll: 'Declining Support' for Giving Illegals Citizenship.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Green Bay Officials Turn Down Request to Testify on March 31 After they Gave Dem Operatives Access to Voting Room and Internet Network During Election — They Say They’re Busy.
• “Ron, Who Am I Turning This Over To?” – Joe Biden Gets Confused Again – Chief of Staff Asks Press to Leave the Room (VIDEO).
• WOW: Rep. Matt Gaetz Obliterates Fellow Congressmen For Using SPLC and ‘Cancel Culture’ to Attack Members of Our Military (MUST WATCH VIDEO).
• Who’s Really Running the Country? Joe Biden Puts Kamala Harris in Charge of Handling Border Crisis.
• You Just Can’t Make This Up: Democrats Argue Removing Dead People from Voter Rolls Is “Voter Suppression” (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times: 

• US Senators Push Solar Lobby to Detail Firms’ Links to Forced Labor in China.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.5 -.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 34.0 +.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.46 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,554.0 +50.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.8 -.86%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.28%.

• S&P 500 futures +.19%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CCL)/-1.63
• (DRI)/.69
  

After the Close:

• (OXM)/.21
• (PRGS)/.75
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 730K versus 770K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 4000K versus 4124K prior.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for March is estimated to rise to 26 versus 24 in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan CPI report, $62B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Truist Utilities/Midstream/Alt Energy Summit, (CE) investor day and the (ALKS) investor day could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Dovish Fed Commentary, Stable Long-Term Rates, Oil Gain, Commodity/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.0 -1.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,612.0 -33.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.02 unch.

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.4 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.0 +6.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 -5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .81 -1.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.26 -20.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.13 +.15%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 495.32 -.79%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.87 -2.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 95.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.5 -.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 176.31 -1.5%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 188.62 +.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 17.75 -1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  76.5 -.5 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.56 -.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 145.0 -7.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 155.80 USD/Metric Tonne +.03%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 22.10 -8.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 150.20 +61.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.80 -.4 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 unch.
• 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +85 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +51 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -4 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/energy/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None of note
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Social Media -3.1% 2) Alt Energy -2.9% 3) Video Gaming -2.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ATEC, PLAN, VITL, WGO, LITE, NLS, AVIR, CALX, GDRX, AI, GIS, BHVN, PRLD, CERT, SUMO, DIOD, MP, VSTO, WSM, MAX, SIBN, CHPT, MTN, ACCD,  DRIO, ITOS, SKLZ, AKRO, CURI, DISCA, GNOG, HOME, DBI, CERE and VIAC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KWEB 2) EWW 3) HIG 4) TAP 5) IGV
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RLX 2) RIDE 3) VLDR 4) AXL 5) UAVS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume