Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -15.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 57.1% of Issues Advancing, 38.8% Declining
• 206 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 89.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,138.0 +64.0 points
• Vix 17.2 -1.9%
• Total Put/Call .57 -18.6%
• TRIN/Arms .85 +57.4%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.5 -4.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.5 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.87 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,117.0 +43.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.15 +.77%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.27%.

• S&P 500 futures -.23%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.25%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ALK)/-3.75
• (AAL)/-3.91
• (AEP)/1.19
• (T)/.79
• (BIIB)/5.02
• (BX)/.72
• (CLF)/.34
• (DHI)/2.18
• (DHR)/1.69
• (DOW)/1.06
• (FCX)/.51
• (GPC)/1.14
• (HCA)/3.29
• (NUE)/3.08
• (ODFL)/1.59
• (DGX)/3.75
• (RS)/3.63
• (SAP)/.86
• (SNA)/3.07
• (LUV)/1.87
• (TSCO)/.96
• (UNP)/2.14
• (VLO)/-.77

After the Close:

• (OZK)/.86
• (INTC)/1.14 
• (STX)/1.31
• (SNAP)/-.05

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March is estimated to rise to 1.25 versus -1.09 in Feb.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 610K versus 576K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3640K versus 3731K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for March is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
• Existing Home Sales for March is estimated to fall to 6.14M versus 6.22M in Feb.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for April is estimated to rise to 28 versus 26 in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB Meeting, EU Services PMI report, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (GSX) investor day and the (SCHW) spring business update could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to strengthen into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Medical/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.7 -5.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,057.0 -4.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.4 -.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.9 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.6 -4.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 150.0 +62.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .70 -12.5%

• NYSE Arms .62 -46.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.68 -.23%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 456.20 -.06%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.43 -.27%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 102.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.19 -2.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.0 -1.63%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.10 -.08%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 17.25 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  64.5 -2.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.5 -.75 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.86 -.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 142.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 180.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.90 -2.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 131.6 -2.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.5 +.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +2.0 basis points
• 88.4% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 88.4% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +352 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +51 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/energy/industrial/biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -22.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sector Declining
• 70.8% of Issues Advancing, 26.1% Declining
• 156 New 52-Week Highs, 30 New Lows
• 88.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,050.0 -10.0 points
• Vix 17.9 -4.3%
• Total Put/Call .73 -8.8%
• TRIN/Arms .69 -40.5%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.0 +6.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 38.0 +1.75 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.97 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,064.0 +3.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.20 +.7%.
• FTSE 100 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.38%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ANTM)/6.44
• (ASML)/2.59
• (HAL)/.17
• (KNX)/.72
• (NVR)/65.83
• (VZ)/1.28
  

After the Close:

• (BXS)/.63
• (CP)/4.48
• (CMG)/4.79
• (CCI)/1.47
• (DFS)/2.60
• (KMI)/.24
• (LRCX)/6.59
• (LSTR)/1.63
• (LVS)/-.22
• (RHI)/.78
• (SLG)/1.59
• (SAVE)/-2.56 
• (VMI)/2.12
• (WHR)/5.04
  

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -3,265,5000 barrels versus a -5,890,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +947,000 barrels versus a +309,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,278,000 barrels versus a -2,083,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.59% versus a +1.0% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK inflation data, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, $24B 20Y T-Bond auction and the (AAPL)/(GOOG) testimony to Senate on App Store could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Virus Variant Worries, Earnings Jitters, Oil Decline, Energy/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.9 +9.3%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,061.0 -210.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.4 -.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.9 -.2%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.5 +5.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 +7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .81 -10.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.17 +54.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.64 +1.84%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 455.77 +1.56%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.59 +2.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 104.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.40 +6.49%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.75 +2.94%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF 39.08 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 16.75 -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  66.5 +.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.97 -.15%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 145.0 +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 181.0 USD/Metric Tonne +2.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.60 -3.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 134.0 -2.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.9 -1.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -4.0 basis points
• 90.1% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 90.1% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -490 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -202 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +51 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/energy sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long