Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Less Hawkish Fed Commentary, Short-Covering, Commodity/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.2 -3.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,317.0 +181.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 136.56 +.54%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 -1.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.2 -.41%

• ISE Sentiment Index 95.0  -15.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .78 -4.9%

• NYSE Arms .94 +129.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.17 -.95%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 393.32 +.16%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.4 -2.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 106.0 +1.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.09 -.14%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 157.10 -.25%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.07 -.43%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 7.0 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 10.0 -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.25 -1.0 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.62 +.30%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 124.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 202.75 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.2 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 89.10 -2.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 76.5 +.2 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 +4.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -64 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -66 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my commodity/industrial/tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -1.2% 2) Disk Drives -.8% 3) Oil Service -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AVXL, MSTR, ITOS, ASAN, FOCS, CORT and SAVA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TRCH 2) DDD 3) DRI 4) BG 5) KWEB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TRCH 2) MVIS 3) EBON 4) MSTR 5) BLCT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Shipping +1.3% 2) Retail +1.2% 3) Agriculture +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DDD, SSYS, FIGS, SBH, DOCN, TUP, NVRO, SPLK, PLUG, UPWK, SPCE, CRWD, CLOV, CVNA, XONE, NTNX, EVRI, BIG, MGNX, ROKU, PTRA, AEO, EMKR, KFY, TDC, HUN and DM
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FIS 2) HUN 3) TRCH 4) WWR 5) SSYS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SBH 2) TUP 3) SAFM 4) SSYS 5) GSAT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -24.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 43.4% of Issues Advancing, 52.9% Declining
• 79 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 85.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,321.0 +185.0 points
• Vix 16.89 -5.6%
• Total Put/Call .72 -6.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.16 +182.90%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.5 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 36.5 -.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.40 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,217.0 +82.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 +.42%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.22%.

• S&P 500 futures +.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CGNT)/.15
• (KFY)/.98
• (PLUG)/-.09
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 pm EST

• Existing Home Sales for May is estimated to fall to 5.72M versus 5.85M in April.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for June is estimated at 18.0 versus 18.0 in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell testifying to House, Fed's Daly speaking, German IFO Business Climate Index, weekly US retail sales reports, Jefferies Consumer Conference and the Goldman Leisure/Transport Conference could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminished Fed Rate-Hike Worries, Dollar Weakness, Oil Gain, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Ever Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.2 -12.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,110.0 +115.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.70 +.43%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 +1.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.3 -4.4%

• ISE Sentiment Index 110.0  -2.7 points
  

• Total Put/Call .79 -14.1%

• NYSE Arms .60 -68.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.71 -1.99%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 394.0 -1.2%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.67 -.98%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.25 +1.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 157.49 -1.02%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.28 +.31%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 6.75 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 10.75 +1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.25 +1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.44 +.21%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 130.0 -7.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 198.0 USD/Metric Tonne -6.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.5 +1.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 91.50 -24.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 76.3 -2.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 +2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +655 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +26 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my commodity/industrial/biotech/tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long