Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +2.0% 2) Gaming +1.8% 3) Alt Energy +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AGFY, NRXP, VIR, LOW, UPST, X, PLTR, GRPN, REAL, AFIB, VIAC, MUDS, SOFI, CANO, TJX, KDNY, TASK, SGFY, GAN, PINC, DOCN, DNMR, TVTX and SKLX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) JNPR 2) LOW 3) XLV 4) TGT 5) ATNF

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LOW 2) TJX 3) MNDY 4) VRPX 5) PMCB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 45.0% of Issues Advancing, 50.4% Declining
• 54 New 52-Week Highs, 55 New Lows
• 69.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,661.0 +59.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,364 +.13%
  
• Vix 17.9 +.1%
• Total Put/Call .90 -2.2%
• TRIN/Arms .70 -31.4%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.0 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.5 +.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.56 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,603.0 +1.0 point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.34 +.84%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.01%.

• S&P 500 futures -.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.23%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ADI)/1.62
• (EAT)/1.72
• (LOW)/4.01
• (LITE)/1.05
• (TGT)/3.53
• (PLCE)/.41
• (TJX)/.57
• (VIPS)/2.36
• (WB)/.63
  

After the Close:

• (CSCO)/.83
• (NVDA)/1.02
• (RRGB)/.00
• (HOOD)/-.26
• (SNPS)/1.78
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for July is estimated to fall to 1600K versus 1643K in June.
• Building Permits for July is estimated to rise to 1610K versus 1598K in June.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,626,880 barrels versus a -448,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,298,890 barrels versus a -1,401,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +161,250 barrels versus a +1,767,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.23% versus a +.5% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

• The July 28 FOMC minutes release.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK Inflation data report, 2Q Mortgage Delinquencies, 2Q MBA Mortgage Foreclosures report, 20Y T-Bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (TWLO) fireside chat could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Afghanistan Pullout Debacle, Rising China/Taiwan Tensions, Virus Mandate/Lockdown Worries, Commodity/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.9 +17.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,530.0 -283.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.52 -.25%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.72 +.35%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.6 +3.5%

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0  -16.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .84 +8.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.08 -23.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.9 +2.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 451.27 +.83%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.58 +.67%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 104.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.53 +.22%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 162.93 +1.95%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.41 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 7.5 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  77.5 +1.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.5 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.57 -.27%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 104.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 157.20 USD/Metric Tonne -2.53%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.8 +.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.2 -1.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.2 +.1 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -2.0 basis points
• 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 287 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +8/100K people
• 54% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +2.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -59 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -101 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -45 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -2.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -4.3% 2) Homebuilding -4.1% 3) Steel -4.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SOFI, MAPS, KTB, DOCS, GRWG, HD, EVER, ENVX, LOW, HQY, LMND, DENN, ALB, AN, GRPN, OTRK, MGNI, PRCH, RVP, IDT, GAN, CLSK and FUV
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TPR 2) TJX 3) XRT 4) EWT 5) XLP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TME 2) RMO 3) GAN 4) AUVI 5) SMFR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +.8% 2) Medical Equipment +.4% 3) Pharma +.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• EDR, FBRX, APP, MRVI, DNMR, TVTX, MRNA, KR, OSCR, FFIE and KTOS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CREE 2) GT 3) SESN 4) CLMT 5) PARR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MNDY 2) GLBE 3) RERE 4) OSAT 5) FN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume