Thursday, September 09, 2021

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:    
Wall Street Journal:  
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Reuters:
Nature: 
  • Why US coronavirus tracking can’t keep up with concerning variants. (April 7) Laboratories supported by the US government have doubled the rate at which they are sequencing SARS-CoV-2 genomes over the past two months. Still, the number of genomes that the country shared in the online genome repository GISAID in March represented only 1.6% of its positive COVID-19 cases that month.
Newsweek:
Newsmax: 
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.0 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 33.5 +.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.19 +.22%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,846.0 -225.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.12 +.9%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.11%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.06%
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (KR)/.64
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • PPI Final Demand MoM for August is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.0% gain in July.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for August is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.0% gain in July.
10:00 am EST
  • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for July.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The UK Trade Data report, Bloomberg US Economic Survey for Sept., Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference and the (ALB) investor day  could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Labor/Product Shortage Concerns, Mandate/Lockdown Fears, Oil Decline, Road & Rail/Pharma Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.8 +4.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,926.0 -46.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.0 -.39%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -.35%.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 53.1 -2.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 106.0  -1.0 point
  • Total Put/Call .79 -9.2%
  • NYSE Arms 1.06 -19.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.71 -.18%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 399.50 +1.1%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.38 -.99%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 -5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.03 +1.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 153.65 +.16%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.30 -.19%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.5 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 8.0 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.5 +1.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.08 +.03%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.
  • Yield Curve 112.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 131.30 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -60.5 +1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.8 -7.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.1 -.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 unch.
  • 98.3% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 98.3% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 327 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -7/100K people
  • 61% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -58 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -48 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -49 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Road & Rail -2.0% 2) REITs -1.3% 3) Video Gaming -1.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • S, DLR, SAM, PATH, BIGC, AGL, VICI, BIIB, SKIN, OCDX, CDMO and BASE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IGT 2) ALB 3) PII 4) EEM 5) BBIG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) HGEN 2) AVAV 3) CVGW 4) RSKD 5) BIIB
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +2.9% 2) Computer Hardware +1.0% 3) Retail +1.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RKLB, CURV, HYZN, IMPL, LOVE, BLDE, MTTR, REKR, SFTW, ATER, BBIG, MGNX, RH, PTON, REAL, SRZN, OSCR, AMBA, SLQT, AAL, SANA, HQY, TRHC, JBLU, FLYW, OCUL, ALEC, LCID, SMAR, UAA, BGFV, DKS, OPAD, KFY, KRON, ASO and KFY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) HIG 2) GEVO 3) REI 4) OPK 5) RH
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LULU 2) ASO 3) LOVE 4) TOPS 5) RH

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -14.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
  • 56.5% of Issues Advancing, 38.8% Declining
  • 70 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
  • 65.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 46.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,000.0 -71.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,020 +.11%
  • Vix 18.2 +1.6%
  • Total Put/Call .76 -12.6%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.09 -16.8%

Wednesday, September 08, 2021

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Tax Hike Worries, US Dollar Strength, Commodity/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.4 +1.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,077.0 -16.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.57 -.19%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.61 +.58%.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.0 +.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 101.0  -9.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .86 +3.6%
  • NYSE Arms 1.31 +79.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.84 -.87%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 396.07 +.42%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.90 -.11%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 108.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.16 +1.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 153.41 +.63%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 38.41 +.21%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 7.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.0 +.5 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.08 -.52%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 114.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 130.70 USD/Metric Tonne -2.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -61.6 -2.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.9 +6.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.9 -3.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +2.0 basis points
  • 98.3% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 98.3% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 289 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +42/100K people
  • 62% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +8.0 percentage points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -290 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -60 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long