Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +4.6% 2) Gambling +4.3% 3) Shipping +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AVIR, METC, SBTX, SPWR, MRK, CDXS, CF, LAUR, LYV, ULCC, IFF, NEO, GOGO, HLT, RNG, FUN, HWM, AMTX and FIVN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HLT 2) MAT 3) XME 4) INOV 5) MRK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AVIR 2) BTBT 3) NAT 4) CDXS 5) PROG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 48.7% of Issues Advancing, 47.4% Declining
• 40 New 52-Week Highs, 64 New Lows
• 54.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,782.0 -62.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,455 -.31%
  
• Vix 23.2 +.13%
• Total Put/Call .99 -5.7%
• TRIN/Arms .96 -38.5%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.5 -2.0 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 46.5 unch.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.68 unch. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,699.0 -145.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.3 -1.6%.
• FTSE 100 futures -.34%.

• S&P 500 futures +.24%

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.28%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for Aug. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.1% gain in July.
• Personal Spending for Aug. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.3% gain in July. 
• The PCE Core MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in July.
  

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in July.
• ISM Manufacturing for Sept. is estimated to fall to 59.5 versus 59.9 in Aug.
• ISM Prices Paid for Sept. is estimated to fall to 78.5 versus 79.4 in Aug.
  

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Sept. is estimated to fall to 13.0M versus 13.06M in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Manufacturing PMI report and the Eurozone PMI report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Policy-Induced Labor/Supply Shortages, Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Dollar Strength, Retail/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.2 +3.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,869.0 -28.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.03 -.74%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 -.45%.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.6 -.05%

• ISE Sentiment Index 65.0  -37.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.05 +12.9%

• NYSE Arms .92 -14.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.62 +.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 377.84 +.48%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.47 +.36%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 106.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.0 -1.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 181.52 +.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 36.84 +.14%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 +1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 10.25 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.25 +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.75 -1.5 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.63 +.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 122.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.85 USD/Metric Tonne -3.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -33.2 +1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -58.6 +.2 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.7 +3.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 unch.
• 99.5% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting, 97.1% chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 242 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) -4/100K people
• 45% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) -1.0 percentage point
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +28 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -4 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -1.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Retail -4.2% 2) Homebuilding -2.3% 3) Airlines -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TROW, SUM, UNFI, UAA, EDIT, CHPT, PRPL, LCID, THO, RH, RL, MLHR, MAT, WW, ATKR, LPI, TPR, DKS, DMYI, DLTR, W, OSTK, LAD, SAH, BOOT, TGNA, NWL, MO, HBI, DBI, WSM, GPS, ALHC, BIG, GTHX, ALT, M, JWN, TIL, CRCT, DDS, KMX, CCXI, AGFY, BGFV, KSS, IRNT and BBBY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DLTR 2) BBBY 3) KSS 4) XHB 5) KMX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) KSS 2) PETZ 3) KMX 4) LNDC 5) VLTA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.0% 2) Video Gaming +1.3% 3) Social Media +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AVIR, INDI, ANGO, SPCE, AMTX, GOGO, EVH, ATUS, ARCB, PAYX, APR, ARLP, MBI and NAVI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SKX 2) NXTD 3) XLRN 4) BBBY 5) KMX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SPCE 2) PRGO 3) BWEN 4) PAYX 5) ARCB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume