Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Banks +1.3% 2) Insurance +.9% 3) Steel +.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TMX, NEOG, BYND, AMC, CNC and GME
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SEAC 2) PRPL 3) EWY 4) UUP 5) CVNA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MIND 2) ZDGE 3) SIG 4) WGO 5) LH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 35.4% of Issues Advancing, 58.8% Declining
• 17 New 52-Week Highs, 116 New Lows
• 49.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,398.0 -152.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,126 -1.74%
  
• Vix 22.5 +10.5%
• Total Put/Call .94 -3.1%
• TRIN/Arms .60 -54.9%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.5 -.25 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 44.0 +.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.42 -.05%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,568.0 +22.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.0 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.25%.

• S&P 500 futures +.2%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases 

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Nov. is estimated to rise to 98.4 versus 98.2 in Oct.
  

8:30 am EST

• The PPI Final Demand MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in Oct.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Housing Index, Eurozone Industrial Production report, US weekly retail sales reports, (FAST) investor day and the (CPB) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 1:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by energy and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Global Virus Lockdown/Mandate Worries, Meme Stock/Crypto Bubbles Bursting, Energy/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.3 +8.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,573.0 -170.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.0 -.19%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.8 +.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 30.9 +7.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0  -8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .93 -13.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.40 +82.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.44 -.31%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 414.23 +.21%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.97 -.69%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 129.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 83.45 -1.37%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 191.89 +.29%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.20 -.34%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 -1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 15.0 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.75 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.75 +.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.43 -.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 82.25 +2.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.7 USD/Metric Tonne +2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 32.5 -2.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.6 +1.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.4 +2.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -4.0 basis points
• 89.8%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of no change at Jan. 26th meeting, 65.4%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 258 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +7/100K people
• 49% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +2.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -60 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -52 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 27.3% of Issues Advancing, 68.4% Declining
• 52 New 52-Week Highs, 103 New Lows
• 49.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,523.0 -220.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,505 -.18%
  
• Vix 20.7 +10.5%
• Total Put/Call .91 -15.7%
• TRIN/Arms 1.43 +88.2%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                 

• G-7 Warns Russia of ‘Massive Consequences’ Over Ukraine. 
• China Seen Adding Fiscal Stimulus Soon After Setting Priorities.  
• Housing Presales Under Threat; Hui Cuts Stake: Evergrande Update.  
• Private Equity Firms Plan Cuts in China to Escape Property Woes.  
• Slip in Japan Manufacturing Outlook Underplays Omicron Concern.  
• Boris Johnson Faces Battles on All Fronts as Controversies Mount.
  
• U.K. Housing Loses Momentum With Second Drop in Asking Prices.
• Blinken Says Russia-Germany Pipeline Offers Leverage Over Putin.  
• Iran Bases Next Year’s Budget on $60-a-Barrel Oil, Fars Says.    
• Asian Stocks, U.S. Equity Futures Rise; Pound Dips: Markets Wrap.
• Saudi Stocks Eke Out Small Gain After STC Pares Loss: Inside EM.   
• China Growth, Diverging Central Banks, Inflation Fears: Eco Day.
• Southwest Airlines Skeptics Are ‘Missing the Point,’ CEO Says.
  
• SEC Probes One Thousand & One Voices Over Spending, WSJ Says.
  
• Apple Set to Release Nudity Detection in Texting, But Other Features Remain on Hold.  
• El-Erian Says Transitory Inflation Call Likely Fed’s Worst Ever.
• Dip Buyers Scoring Historic Win in Stocks That Defy Bond Warning.   
• Ackman Says SALT Tax Deduction Increase ‘Makes No Sense’.

Wall Street Journal:

• Buybacks Hit Record After 2020 Pullback.
• ETF Inflows Top $1 Trillion for First Time.
• SEC Investigates Private-Equity Firm Backed by Wealthy Families.
• Rescuers Sift Through Rubble for Tornado Survivors in Kentucky, Illinois.
• No Rules for Progressive Radicals. Biden appointees try to stage a coup against the director of the FDIC on bank mergers.
• Inflation Surge Pushes U.S. Real Interest Rates Deeper Into Negative Territory.
• Sirius Hires Top Builder of Disney+ Streaming Service.
• Yellen Walks Tightrope to Deliver on Biden’s Climate Promises.
• Unpaid Bills Pile Up for Former Hedge-Fund Star.
• The Real Cost of Biden’s Spending Plan. CBO comes clean on the price tag if the programs are made permanent.
• Trucker Central Freight Lines to Close After Years of Losses.

Fox News:    

• Biden's approval rating plummets on handling of crime surge, inflation.
• New poll reveals what a potential Trump-Biden 2024 showdown might look like.

CNBC:

• G-7 warns Russia of ‘massive consequences’ if it attacks Ukraine.
• Amazon’s outage and HashiCorp’s IPO point to a future with multiple clouds.
• What Apple, Google smartwatches are beginning to display about our health.

Zero Hedge:

• "This Is The Single Biggest Thing You Need To Have On Your Rader" - Why Goldman Goes All-In On A Face-Ripping Santa Rally.
• Panic? US Mega-Corporations Rush To Abandon Vax Mandate.
• Hospitalizations, Mortality Cut In Half After Brazilian City Offered Ivermectin To Everyone Pre-Vaccine.
• Titleist Bans "Let's Go Brandon" Personalization Of Its Golf Balls.
• China Creates "Humanized Pigs" To Be Used In COVID Research. 
• Morgan Stanley: As Uncomfortable As It Can Be To Admit Defeat, Here We Are.
• DHL Is Keeping Pace With The Holiday Rush By Adding 1,500 New Robots.
• "We Expect A Sea Change": Morgan Stanley Admits It Was Wrong, Now Sees Liftoff In 2022 As Goldman Goes All-In With 7 Rate Hikes.
• Dems Panic Over 'Build Back Better' Impasse As Child Tax Credit Set To Expire.
• Quake Swarms In Japan Raise Fears "The Next Big One Will Happen This Month".
• On Inflation: Friday's 7% Increase In Consumer Prices Is 11% When House Prices Are Added.
• Biden's New "Regressive" Methane Tax Will Raise Average American's Gas Bill By 17%: Op-Ed.
• From Panic-Selling To Panic-Buying In One Week.
• Four States Calling In National Guard To Alleviate Healthcare Staffing Crisis.
• World Leaders Have To Face The Truth About Oil Demand.
• German Schoolchildren Subjected To 'Ritual Humiliation' Over Their Vaccine Status.
• Hackers Blamed For Cream Cheese Shortage Currently Afflicting The US.
• EA Games Tells Kyle Rittenhouse His Name Could "Harm" Other Gamers.
• "When Science Mixes With Politics, All We Get Is Politics...".
• Top Japan Officials To Join US Boycott Of Beijing Olympics As List Grows.

NewsMax:

• 'Good Riddance' Trends on Twitter Chris Wallace Leaves Fox News for CNN.
• CNN Staffer Tied to Chris Cuomo Indicted for Grooming Minors for Sex.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: Never-Trumper Chris Wallace Announces He Is Leaving FOX News.
• THEY’RE SCARED: Fulton County Commissioner Robb Pitts Tells Auditors: ‘Stay the Hell Out of Fulton County”. 
• German Police Enforce Covid Social Distancing Measures with Rulers (VIDEO).
• EVIL: SNL ‘Jokes’ About Gang F***ing Roger Stone’s 75-Year-Old Wife Who Has Cancer (VIDEO). 
• THE BIG LIE: The ‘Powers That Be’ Overcount COVID Deaths and Undercount Vaccine Deaths – All for Money and Power.
• SNL “Hip-Hop Nativity” Skit Shows “Baby Jesus” Twerking – Mary as a Stripper and “Baby Daddy” Joseph with a “Pimp Walk” (VIDEO).
• Female Penn Swimmers Step Forward, Describe Teammates in Tears Over Transgender Lia Thomas as UPenn Admin Advises Swimmers to Shut Up and Avoid Talking to Media.
• With 1.7 Million Illegal Border Crossings This Past Fiscal Year – Where Did These People Go and Who Paid For It?
• HUGE: Pennsylvania Democrats Scared of Ongoing 2020 Election Audit in State – Crooked AG Is Freaking Out.
• Jen Psaki and Biden Admin Defend Forcing Kindergarteners to Sit Outside in 40 Degree Weather Alone on Buckets to Eat Lunch.
• Tucker Carlson Explains Why Inflation Is Even Worse Than You Think (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• American Jailed for 3 Years in China for Buying Toy Guns Online.

Daily Mail:

• South Africa's Omicron outbreak slows as expert says population's T-cell immunity against Covid has kept hospitalisations low and praises government for not locking down.

Twitter:

• What’s amazing about Australia is that despite ~90% of everyone over 16 being vaccinated, mask mandates, vaccine passports and forced quarantines, cases are actually rising again. (graph)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 681,961 (US) Reports Through December 3, 2021.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.75 -2.75 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.5 -2.0 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.53 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,830.0 +87.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.0 -1.4%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.56%.
• S&P 500 futures +.40%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.39%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• (PLUS) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Industrial Production report, (MTW) analyst meeting and the (REGN) investor event could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.