Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• Stalled Elsewhere, Russia Focuses on Mariupol in Plan B.
• Ukraine Update: Biden Says Hypersonic Missile Shows Desperation.
• S&P to Pull Credit Ratings for All Russian Firms After EU Ban.
• Russia's Long-Term Oil Growth at Risk From Service Firms’ Pullback.
  
• Australia Consumer Confidence Plunges as Price Expectations Jump.  
• China Stockpiles Record Cash In a Sign of Slow Fiscal Stimulus.
• Stock Climb Weathers Bond Tumble, Rally in Crude: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Surges On Growing Supply Fears as EU Considers Russian Ban.
• Powell Is Ready to Back Half-Point Hike in May If It’s Necessary.
• Powell Says Look at Short-Term Treasury Yield Curve for Recession Risk.  
• Oil Thirst Is Forcing Biden to Pivot U.S. Back to Saudi Arabia.
• ‘Waking Everyone Up’: Wall Street Reacts to Powell’s Hawkishness.  
• How Surging Oil Prices Will Affect You Beyond the Gas Pump.  
• Bonds Suffer One of Worst Days in a Decade as Fed Spurs Rethink.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russia Intensifies Pressure Campaign on Ukraine.
• War Complicates Biden Administration’s Military Strategy on China and Russia.
• EU Support Grows for Russia Oil Ban.
• Latest Updates | War Disrupts International Space Projects.
• Fed Will Consider More-Aggressive Rate Increases.
• The Price of a Lunch Salad Went Berserk While You Were Working From Home.
• Gary Gensler Stages a Climate Coup. The SEC Chairman does the bidding of BlackRock and the left.
• Shale Companies Drilling More, but Oil Output Growing Little.

Fox News:  

• LIVE UPDATES: Putin puts Russian spies on notice, running out of patience over stalled invasion.
• Think your grocery bill is high now? Experts warn just wait.
• 'STAGFLATION': Why economists are worrying about a 1970s-style catastrophe.

CNBC.com:

• Powell says the Fed will take ‘necessary steps’ to address high inflation.
• SEC proposes broad climate rules as Chair Gensler says risk disclosure will help investors.

MarketWatch:

• The best-performing sector of the S&P 500 is still the cheapest, while technology stocks look overvalued.
  
• ‘The housing market is in the early stages of a substantial downshift’: Home sales may drop 25% by the end of summer, analyst warns.
  
• Nike stock rises 5% after earnings and sales beat but China slump continues

Zero Hedge:

• US Unexpectedly Sanctions China Officials Hours After Demanding Beijing Condemn Russia.
• US Sending Soviet Anti-Air Defense Systems To Ukraine That Were "Secretly Acquired".
• Shanghai Reports Record Surge In COVID Cases.
• Aviation Experts Baffled By Crash Of China Eastern Airlines Flight MU5735.
• April 2020 But In Reverse: One Bank Warns We Are About To Witness A Historic Short Squeeze Eruption In Oil.
• "Some F*ckery Is Afoot" - Rogan Slams "Outright Crazy" Media Coverage Of Hunter Biden Laptop Story.
• How Much Waste Is In The $1.5 Trillion Spending Bill.
• Manhattan's Third-Largest Hotel To Sell At Staggering Loss.
• 3,000 Canadian Pacific Rail Workers Strike As Fertilizer Shipments Grind To Halt.
• Severe Drought & "Dust Bowl Conditions" Threaten Disastrous Winter Wheat Harvest In The US.
• Hedge Funds Sell Record 1 Billion Barrels In Oil Futures Just As Prices Explode Higher.
• Unchanged...
• Bonds Battered, Stocks Slide As Powell Channels Volcker; Crude Surges.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Grassley: White House Covering Up 48,000 Documents on SCOTUS Nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson (VIDEO).
• Judge Halts DC Law Allowing Minors to Get Vaccinated Without Parental Consent.
• “It’s Coming” – Joe Biden Casually Says Russia is Planning a Cyberattack Against the United States (VIDEO).
• Democrat Boston Mayor Says She’s Used to Dealing with Problems That Are “Expensive, Disruptive and White” (VIDEO).
• MUST WATCH: Hawley Outlines Seven Cases Where Ketanji Brown Jackson Was Lenient on Pedophiles.
• Russia Is Systematically Destroying NATO Training Sites IN UKRAINE.
• WAYNE ROOT: Has One Rigged Election Destroyed America Forever? The Odds Are Against Us.
• Update: Rafael Nadal After Complaining of Breathing Problems Following Tennis Match – “It Feels like Needles – When I Try to Breathe It’s Painful” (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• America’s Security Requires Ending Reliance on China Supply Chains: Rep. Harshbarger.

GETTR:

• @DiscloseTV - NOW - Biden: Times have shifted, "New World Order" coming. (video)
  
• @VigilantFox -  Dr. McCullough Closes the Case on Mass Formation —There Is Too Much Evidence -People driving alone in cars with masks on. 22% of the Participants in the Pfizer Trials Had an 'Unknown' Outcome - Dr. Jessica Rose "If a pharmaceutical company that's basically in charge of the entire human population right now, and that's true, is asking not to reveal its safety data for 75 years, you should get concerned because the only reason anyone would ask not to reveal safety data is if they're afraid of what people are going to think about the safety data." (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 788,623 Reports(+5,342 from prior week) Through March 11th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.0 -2.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 60.25 +5.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.85 -.12%. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,743.0 +16.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.8 +1.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.66%.

• S&P 500 futures -.26%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.29%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CCL)/-1.21
• (INFO)/.83
  

After the Close:

• (AIR)/.58
• (ADBE)/3.34
• (POSH)/-.18
• (WOR)/1.37
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for March is estimated to rise to 2.0 versus 1.0 in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (WRB) 3-for-2
• (ACMR) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Currency Account report, weekly US retail sales reports, DA Davidson EV Conference, KeyBanc Life Sciences/MedTech Investor Forum, (NTAP) investor day, (REAL) investor day and the (NVDA) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Fed "Behind the Curve" Fears, Diminishing Russia/Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.6 +3.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,652.0 +123.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.02 -.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.5 +.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.6 +3.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 456.0 +346.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .83 +6.4%

• NYSE Arms .99 -22.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.06 +12.0% (March contract roll)
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 375.5  -3.9%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.21 +10.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.60 +5.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 233.92 -16.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.83 +.86% 
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 4,051.60 +1.8%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 26.25 +1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 56.5 +4.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  111.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 49.91 -.91%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.89 -.10%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .46% +7.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 25.25 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 149.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 46.2 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 39.2 -1.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 46.3 -2.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.94 +4.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 72 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -90.2%(-1.2 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +288 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my commodity/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -2.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -4.1% 2) Social Media -3.4% 3) Airlines -3.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MDB, CTAS, PRCT, TLS, WHR, CALM, DDS, ETW, VRT, MU, TSP, ACLS, WEBR, SPR, AMLX, CCCS, BURL, AMTX, BJ, DAL, YOU, BA, AAL, SQ, MQ, CTKB, CRWD, GFS, EPAM, UBER, GTLB, IEA, HLI, PLCE, RDFN, PACB, ZI, NLSN, SYNA, SG, SNOW, DFH, LOB and SST
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NLSN 2) REI 3) HPQ 4) ALK 5) BA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ALNA 2) IMGN 3) MRNS 4) BILI 5) BLND
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +3.3% 2) Steel +2.9% 3) Agriculture +2.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PLAN, IPI, RVNC, COUP, OXY, INSW, SD, LXU and UUUU
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NILE 2) SEAC 3) WY 4) REI 5) DD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NRSN 2) AA 3) OXY 4) UFCS 5) IAS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +10.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 49.5% of Issues Advancing, 47.3% Declining
• 103 New 52-Week Highs, 32 New Lows
• 44.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,676.0 +154.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,279 -.84%
  
• Vix 24.1 +1.1%
• Total Put/Call .78 unch.
• TRIN/Arms 1.14 -10.9%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• War Complicates Russia’s Role in Supplying Commodities to China.  
• EU May Refrain From Stepping Into Energy Market as Nations Split.
• Russia Uses Hypersonic Weapons as War Enters Bloodier Phase. 
• Ukraine Update: Kyiv Rejects Russian Demand to Give Up Mariupol.
• Shanghai’s New Covid Cases Hit Record on Mass Mandated Tests.
  
• Food Security Panics Governments as Ukraine War Blocks Supplies.  
• World’s Top Alumina Supplier Australia Bans Exports to Russia.
• U.S. Equity Futures Steady as Crude Pushes Higher: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Climbs as Traders Gauge War in Ukraine, Middle East Tensions.
• After Oil’s Surge, Saudi Aramco Hikes Spending to Boost Output.  
• Houthis Target Aramco Sites in Saudi Arabia Using Drones.
• Market Gyrations Ease With Traders Recalibrating Russia Risk.
• Unlike Trump, Biden Has Stock Market Far Down His Priority List.
• Soaring Prices for Everything Used to Make Food Brings More Inflation.  
• ESG Pioneer Expects Shakeout for Funds Hyped by ‘Fairy Dust’.   
• Treasuries Stumble Near 2% at Short End Even With a Hawkish Fed.  
• U.K. Cost-of-Living Crisis Forces Tough Task on Sunak: Eco Week. 
• Supreme Court Justice Thomas Is Hospitalized With Infection.
• Usurping Dollar’s Dominance an Impossible Task, Fund Giants Say.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russia Focuses on Resupply Efforts Amid Halting Progress.
• Russia’s Push for Self-Sufficient Economy Fails Before Western Sanctions.
• Latest Updates | Mariupol’s City Council Says Residents Are Being Forcibly Evacuated to Russia.
• Pentagon’s Work With Ukraine’s Biological Facilities Becomes Flashpoint in Russia’s Information War.
• Canadian Pacific Railway Work Stoppage Threatens New Supply-Chain Snarl. 
• China Says Housing Prices Are Stable, but Developers See Significant Falls.
• Gas Prices Upend Small Business.
• Hunter Biden’s Laptop Is Finally News Fit to Print. The press that ignored the story in 2020 admits that it’s real.
• Biden Is in Climate Denial. Even the European left understands what the Ukraine invasion means for fossil fuels. 
• Russia’s Assault on Ukraine Uproots 10 Million People.
• Conflict Is Already Taking Its Toll on Global Food Supplies.
• Petty Thieves Plague San Francisco. ‘These Last Two Years Have Been Insane.’.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (WEN), (PANW), (TWTR) and (MMM).

Fox News:   

• LIVE UPDATES: Putin faces 'grim' future, domestic opposition as Russia becomes pariah state.
• Ukraine sees signs another neighbor planning 'direct invasion'.
• Ukraine says Putin 'personally' ordered assassination of Zelenskyy.
• Ukrainian police officer delivers blunt message to Biden after city is destroyed. 
• Chernobyl staff held hostage by Russian troops since site seized get relief but new worry in focus.

CNBC:

• Bob Chapek and Bob Iger had a falling out and rarely talk — the rift looms over Disney’s future.
• Zelenskyy warns of ‘third world war’ if talks fail; No plans for Biden to visit Ukraine.
• Investors come off a strong week looking for more gains now that they have some clarity from the Fed.
• Saudi Aramco’s full-year profit more than doubles on soaring oil prices.
• California slashes supplies to water agencies amid record drought.

Zero Hedge:

• Zelensky Says WWIII Assured If Negotiations With Russia Break Down.
• Turkey Says Ukraine, Russia "Close To An Agreement" As Moscow Delivers Ultimatum To Surrender Mariupol.
• Shenzhen Scrambles To Ease Lockdown As Port Congestion Persists.
• Wall Street's 'King Of Block Trades' Targeted In DoJ Investigation.
• Morgan Stanley: We Could Be In A Downturn 5-10 Months From Now.
• Will The New York Times Apologize To Sen. Cotton?
• Elon Musk Defends Russell Brand, Says Groupthink Among Major Media Is "More Troubling".
• Banks Are Restocking Gold At Fastest Pace In Years.
• How Healthcare Became Sickcare.
• GOP Launches Voter Mobilization Effort At Gas Stations As 'Pump Pains' Leave Hole In Americans' Wallets.
• While You Weren't Paying Attention, The Hunter Biden Laptop Story Turned Out To Be True & No One Has Been Held Accountable.
• Elites Suggest Price Controls, Dystopian Travel Restrictions To 'Manage' Soaring Energy Costs. 
• 2020 Election Nullification, Audit Bills Dead Or Dying In State Legislatures.
• China Warns West's "Outrageous" Sanctions Are Forcing Nuclear-Armed Russia "Into A Corner".
• Elites Suggest Price Controls, Dystopian Travel Restrictions To 'Manage' Soaring Energy Costs.
• Five Critical Factors Why Prices Will Stay High For Years.
• Snowden Discusses Bitcoin's Lack Of Privacy.
• Interest In NFTs Has Plummeted.
• Can we squeeze much higher...?
• Teachers' Union Teams Up With Steven Brill's NewsGuard To Flag "Misinformation" For Children.
• CDC Removes 24 Percent Of Child COVID-19 Deaths, Blames Coding Error.
• Bill Gross Warns Fed Rate Hikes Will "Crack" US Economy And Housing Market.
• Soaring LNG Demand Creates Traffic Jam At Gulf Of Mexico Ports.
• Putin: Destined To Hang Or Drown?
• Clip Of Biden Boasting He Proposed NATO's 78-Day Airstrikes On Belgrade Goes Viral In China.
• With Nickel Trading Broken, Goldman Quietly Makes A Market $25K by $37K As LME's Chief Throws Banks Under The Bus.
• Four US Marines Dead After V-22 Osprey Crashed During NATO Drill.
• The Contest Against Inflation Is Being Lost Despite Rate-Hikes.
• Mariupol About To Fall As Fighting Enters City Streets.
• Fauci Says He's Considering Stepping Down.
• Austria To Reintroduce COVID Mask Rules Just Two Weeks After They Were Abolished.
• These Charts Show Russia's Invasion Choking World Of Natural Resources.
• Parts Of Spanish Economy Grind To A Halt After Five-Day Nationwide Truckers' Strike.

MarketWatch.com:         

• 17 oil stocks, including Warren Buffett favorite Occidental Petroleum, that are expected to book the highest free cash flow. 
  
• War in Ukraine: Russians push deeper into Mariupol as locals plead for help.
  
• Weekend reads: There’s a recession warning as the Federal Reserve fights inflation.   
• Here are the U.S. top 10 imports from Russia as tariffs are set to rise.   
• The nickel market tumult: What investors need to know.

NewsMax:

• Russia Says It Used Hypersonic Missile in Ukraine for First Time.
• Ukraine: More US Javelins, Stingers Within Days.  
• Reports: Thousands of Captured Ukrainian Civilians Being Shipped to Camps in Russia.
• Russia Bombs Art School in Mariupol Housing 400 Refugees.   
• Russia Demands Mariupol Surrender by 5 a.m. Monday.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Peace in the Middle East Started “When the Gulf Countries Saw that Somebody [Trump] Was Willing to Stand Up to Iran” – Former Israeli President Netanyahu Warns Against Biden’s Iran Deal.
• Beginning of a Revolt? Virginia Tech Swimmer Says Her Finals Spot was Stolen From her by Transgender Competitor William “Lia” Thomas.
• VAX PURGE CONTINUES: US Army Officially Begins Dishonorably Discharging Soldiers Who Haven’t Taken The Experimental Vaccine.
• Pennsylvania Video Shows Ballot Trafficker Dumping Handfuls of Ballots into Ballot Drop Box in Montgomery County – Video Shows More than 100 People Dropping More than 1 Ballot into Drop Box in Just a Few Hours (VIDEO). 
• Democrats and Dominion Now Trying to Stop 2020 Election Audit in New Mexico – US House Oversight Committee Getting Involved.
• OUTRAGE: To Date Not One Single Independent, Objective and Complete Audit of Dominion Voting Machines Used in the 2020 Election Has Taken Place.
• Mitch McConnell Is Trying to Push Biden’s Pick for Supreme Court Justice Through the Senate Despite Her Horrible Leniency with Pedophiles – Terry Schilling on the War Room (VIDEO).
• Germany, France, Italy and Other EU Nations Recently Sold Arms to Russia Despite Sanctions.
• Globalist Agency Calls for Energy Lockdowns including Banning Cars on Sundays to Achieve Climate Goals.
• Lara Logan Sheds Light on Ukraine and Its History with Globalists (VIDEO).
• Don’t Expect Twitter to Provide Restitution for Censoring and Kicking Americans Off the Platform for Sharing Totally Legit Hunter Biden Laptop Stories.
• ‘Eat Lentils Instead of Meat’ – Bloomberg News Tells Peasants Earning ‘Less Than $300K’ How to Deal with Inflation.
• The $1.5 Trillion 2,500 Pages in the Spending Bill Are Full of Pork and Waste (VIDEO).
• Psaki Spars with New York Post Reporter Asking About Hunter’s Laptop From Hell and Biden Crime Family’s Deals with Russian Oligarchs (VIDEO).
• Canadian Energy Official Says What All of America is Thinking.
• 45,500 Rapid COVID Tests Recalled – “High Number Of False Positive Reports”.
• SHOCKING: Millennials Experienced the “Worst-Ever Excess Mortality in History” – An 84% Increase In Deaths From All Causes After Vaccine Mandates Introduced (VIDEO).
• Instead of Saving Animals, PETA Takes Aim at NFL — Asks Them to Change the Name of ‘Horse Collar Tackle’.
• Another Food Price Increase Expected: This Time It’s Eggs.
• “I Have No Problem Being the Bad Guy” – Far-Left Politico Praises Georgia Governor Kemp for Certifying the 2020 Election Results in Georgia.
• Starbucks to Phase Out Iconic Disposable Cup, Will Install Washing Stations For Reusable Mugs to Help with Its Long-Term Climate Goals.
• GOP-Led States Take Action Against High Gas Prices, Dem States Dither.
• UPenn Cuts Off Comments on Lia Thomas’s Championship Post – 2nd Place Finisher Flooded with Congratulations “To the Real Winner” Comments.
• Ghoulish: NYC Health Commissioner Wants Masks For Kids Under 5 Indefinitely.

The Epoch Times:

• US and Chinese Fighter Jets Had Close Encounter Over East China Sea: US General.
• China’s ‘Zero-COVID’ Threatens Manufacturers and Global Supply.

GETTR: 

• @VigilantFox - The President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele: "Something so big and powerful (the USA) can't be destroyed so quickly, unless the enemy comes from within." Tens of Thousands of Albanians Protest Against Soaring Fuel and Food Prices as the Cost of Living Skyrockets. (video) Edward Dowd Breaks Down the CDC Data and Explains Why He Thinks There Will Be Consequences. "The rate of change [in all-cause mortality] is the smoking gun. The rate of change and the acceleration into mandates and boosters. Basically, in my mind, it's case closed."

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 783,281 Reports(+8,909 from prior week) Through March 4th, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.75 +7.75 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 54.5 +2.5 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 51.83 -.22%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,536.0 +14.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.0 +1.4%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.11%.
• S&P 500 futures -.15%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.25%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (NKE)/.72
• (TME)/.51
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Feb.

Upcoming Splits

• (WRB) 3-for-2
• (ACMR) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Eurozone PPI report, Wolfe Research Software Conference and the BofA Electronic Payments Symposium could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.