Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -8.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 58.7% of Issues Advancing, 37.9% Declining
• 71 New 52-Week Highs, 127 New Lows
• 40.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,468.0 +80.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,240 -1.05%
  
• Vix 20.9 -2.9%
• Total Put/Call .91 +1.1%
• TRIN/Arms .57 -52.5%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• Putin Army Regroups for Ukraine Showdown After Invasion Setback.
• Ukraine Update: EU Bans Russian Coal Imports in First Energy Hit.
• Peru Lifts Key Rate to 13-Year High After Inflation Riots.
  
• Stocks Set for Steady Open; Treasury Curve Steeper: Markets Wrap.  
• Commodities Boom Sends Aussie, Stocks Correlation to Decade-High.
• Oil Heads for Second Weekly Loss on SPR Sales, Virus and Fed.  
• ‘Time Correction’ Will Maximize Stock Anguish, Top Manager Says.  
• Three-Quarters of Americans Say the Economy Is on the ‘Wrong Track’.
• By One Measure, Rates May Still Need to Rise 300 Basis Points, Fed’s Bullard Says.

Wall Street Journal:

• Rising Mortgage Rates Boost Home Sellers’ Anxiety.
• Horrors of Ukraine’s Bucha Laid Bare on Yablunska Street.
• Latest Updates: Blinken Says U.S. Would Help Europe Move Away From Russian Fuel.
• Manufacturers Grind to a Halt in China as Lockdowns Expand.
• Why Russia Doesn’t Want to Default—Even in a Time of War.
• How Ukraine Used a Ragtag Arsenal to Thwart Air Attacks.
• Pfizer to Buy ReViral for Up to $525 Million.

Fox News:  

• White House reacts to Republican governor's plan to bus illegal immigrants to Biden's doorstep.
• Democrat-run state's lesson plans for 2nd graders have parents concerned.

CNBC.com:

• ‘Carnage is epic’ in bonds due to Fed’s inflation error, market researcher Jim Bianco says.
• Fed’s Bullard says interest rate policy is ‘behind the curve,’ but it’s making progress.
• Rising mortgage rates are causing more home sellers to lower their asking prices.

MarketWatch:      

• Oil-price spikes on this scale have ‘always preceded recession’: Jeremy Grantham.  
• Walmart raises pay for truck drivers to as much as $110,000 in the first year.  
• Yellen warns crypto invites risks that could ‘disrupt the financial system and our economy’ in first major speech on digital assets.

Zero Hedge:

• "Parents Are Not Going To Put Up With This Nonsense," Moms For Liberty Vows To Boycott Disney.
• Shocking Consumer Credit Numbers: Credit Card Debt Soars With Savings Long Gone.
• Large Israeli Study Finds That Protection Against COVID From 4th Shot Drops Quickly.
• Four Secret Service Agents Tied To Phony Cop Scandal Suspended.
• Coal Miners Surge After Europe Backs Russian Coal Embargo, Assuring Much Higher Coal Prices.
• Kremlin Spox Admits "Huge Tragedy" Of "Significant" Troop Losses In Live Interview.
• Texas Governor Directs State To Bus Or Fly Illegal Immigrants To DC As Title 42 Ends.
• China Sides With Russia During Key Vote At UN Human Rights Panel.
• Over 150 Suspicious Hunter Or James Biden Financial Transactions Flagged By Banks.
• Trucking Industry Will Be In Dire Straits If Demand Drops To Pre-COVID Levels.
• Pelosi Had Close Contact With Biden & Obama Just Prior To COVID Diagnosis, White House Shrugs.
• DHS Giving Cell Phones To Illegal Border-Crossers: White House.
• Hunter's Laptop Is "Totally Irrelevant" Now That It's Been Validated: Atlantic Journo.
• Perception Vs. Reality.
• Terror Attack On Busy Tel Aviv Bar District Leaves 2 Dead, 8 Wounded - Large Manhunt Underway.
• Stocks & Oil Dump-n-Pump As Yield Curve Un-Inverts.

Newsmax:  

• Zelenskyy: Scene in 2nd Ukraine Town Is 'More Dreadful' Than Bucha's Horrors.
• UN Aid Chief: 'I'm Not Optimistic' About Ukraine Ceasefire.
• EU Has Spent $24 Billion on Russian Gas Since War Began.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• BREAKING REPORT… Naomi Wolf on War Room – FDA Failed to Mention Heart Damage to Teens When Approving Pfizer Vaccine (VIDEO).
• BEAUTIFUL! Student Confronts Fake News Purveyor Brian Stelter from CNN at Disinfo Conference AND IT’S GLORIOUS! (VIDEO).
• NYC Mayor Eric Adams GETS CURSED OUT BY FURIOUS Fed Up New Yorkers! Caution- EXPLICIT VIDEO!
• Three US Intel Officials Tell NBC News That the “Intelligence” Biden Released on Russia/Ukraine Was Made Up (VIDEO).
• Tucker: “Food Shortages – Not In Sudan – In Cincinnati, Reno, Spokane and Norfolk…It’s Scary” — Time To Stockpile Food?
• JUST IN: Senate Votes 53-47 to Confirm Radical Marxist Ketanji Brown Jackson to Supreme Court.
• More Than 150 Financial Transactions Involving Hunter and James Biden were Flagged as Concerning by US Banks – Including Large Wire Transfers.
• Georgia’s Corrupt Governor Kemp and Lt. Gov. Duncan Block Election Integrity Bill.
• How Convenient: 20% of Drop Box Ballot Reports in Arizona Were Missing Critical Information Like How Many Ballots Were Picked Up from Each Box!
• “Boycott Disney!” – Protesters Gather in Front of Disney HQ in Burbank, California (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• ‘This Is a Committed Enemy’: Rep. Green Seeks to Block Exports of Critical Technology to China.
• US Would Sanction China If It Invades Taiwan: Yellen.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 799,731 Reports(+3,949 from prior week) Through March 25th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.5 -1.0 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 62.75 -1.0 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.41 unch. 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,325.0 -63.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.9 +.80%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.94%.

• S&P 500 futures -.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• Bloomberg April US Economic Survey.
  

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +4.0% gain in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Consumer Confidence report and the AACR annual meeting could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Diminished Russia Sovereign Default Fears, Technical Buying, Healthcare/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.7 +2.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,312.0 -58.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.82 unch.

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.1 -.54%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 37.3 -.35% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 +1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .92 -1.08%

• NYSE Arms 1.37 +79.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.91 +.86%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 351.70 +1.14%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.34 +.97%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.39 +.63%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 236.54 +1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.7 -.15%
• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,643.2 -10.3%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.0 +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 31.75 +2.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.25 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  111.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 49.27 -.10%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.39 +.06%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .67% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 19.75 +9.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 158.30 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.9 +6.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.5 -1.0 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.0 -4.5 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.85 +2.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 64 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +1/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -93.2%(+.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +227 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -58 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +112 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my commodity/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -3.7% 2) Alt Energy -3.1% 3) Social Media -2.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• H, GXO, LEG, KRTX, GPMT, LEVI, JBLU, COOP, RRR, DISCA, SAIA, RH, EXPI, TWTR, SAH, FOUR, HASI, COWN, SAVA, BTAI and GOGO
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SENS 2) RAD 3) COOP 4) GLW 5) ATUS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HYZN 2) CELH 3) AFRM 4) CANO 5) SHYF
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Pharma +1.8% 2) Medical Equipment +1.3% 3) Gold & Silver +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SST, CXM, HPQ, CDK, BBAI, NEO, IPI, ANGO, LXU, ZETA, LW, VIVO, CYXT, XPOF, STZ, BOX, COST, TMCI, ERII and BRY
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HPQ 2) CAH 3) NCR 4) RAD 5) CDK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HPQ 2) CXM 3) EPAZ 4) SBFM 5) MNTS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 31.7% of Issues Advancing, 65.1% Declining
• 49 New 52-Week Highs, 198 New Lows
• 41.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,250.0 -119.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,405 -.13%
  
• Vix 23.3 +5.4%
• Total Put/Call 94.0 +1.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.46 +102.7%