Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:            

• EU Can Cut Russian Energy Dependence Sooner Than Thought: Draghi.
• Ukraine Update: Mariupol ‘Basically Encircled’ Yet Hasn’t Fallen.
  
• Abramovich Visits Kyiv, Seeks to Revive Ukraine-Russia Talks. 
• Global Investors Flee China Fearing That Risks Eclipse Rewards.  
• Beijing Crackdown Derails Alibaba’s Bid for Amazon-Size Profit.  
• Recession Risks Duel Resilience Hopes in Global Economy Outlook.
• Treasuries’ Biggest Foreign Buyers to Return on Weakening Yen.
• Bearish Yen Bets Mount as Currency Slumps for 12th Straight Day.
• U.S. Futures Dip as Oil, Gas Rise; China Data Loom: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Jumps as Week Opens on Libyan Disruption, Russian Warning.
  
• Ukraine Resistance Stalls Putin’s Victory Drive: Weekend Reads.
• Goldman Sachs Sees U.S. Recession Odds at 35% in Next Two Years.  
• Powell May Be About to Seal Deal on a Half-Point Hike: Eco Week.
  
• Elon Musk’s Cryptic Tweet Channeling Elvis Baffles Investors.

Wall Street Journal:

• Latest Updates From the War.
• Officials in U.S. Adopt New Message on Covid-19 Behaviors: It’s Your Call.
• The Coming Green-Energy Inflation. Demand for metals and other commodities will keep skyrocketing unless mandates are reversed.
• Biden’s Immigration Damage. By rescinding Title 42 without a substitute, he’s doing more to help restrictionists than Donald Trump did. 
• Inside a Shanghai Mass Quarantine Center.
• Russia and Ukraine Build Forces for Looming Battles in East.
• Bond Rout Threatens More Pain for Investors.
• War Deepens Debt Woes Across Developing World.
• Utilities Plan Electric Grid Upgrades, Adding to Power Bills.
• Car Prices Expected to Remain Elevated in 2022.
• Decade-High Mortgage Rates Pose Threat to Spring Housing Market.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (COST), (FDX), (PGNY) and (D).

Fox News:   

• McCarthy: How Biden could have 'saved thousands of lives' in Ukraine.
• Suspect in mall shooting that left 14 people injured could soon return to work under bond conditions.
• Sunshine State rejects record number of math textbooks over 'prohibited topics'.
• Russian energy giant supplying gas to Europe — through enemy territory.

CNBC:

• Mariupol hasn’t surrendered to Russia, PM says; at least 5 dead, 20 injured in Kharkiv attack.
• China’s Covid policy forces a city three times the size of New York to lock down.

Zero Hedge:

• CIA Bombshell: The Sussman Data Was "User Created".
• Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open - Easter weekend news round up.
• "Every Fed Hiking Cycle Ends With Default And Bankruptcy Of Governments, Banks And Investors".
• The Bond Market Is Calling For A Recession In Mid-2023... But That Has Not Eased Inflation Expectations.
• Bird Flu Outbreak "Above And Beyond Rate Of Spread" Observed In 2015, Warns Industry Expert 
• China's Digital Yuan, Biggest Threat To The West, Is Overshadowed By Russian War, Kyle Bass Warns.
• "The Light Is Killing Me" - Ukrainian Woman Describes Brutal Conditions Inside Shanghai Quarantine Center.
• 'Inflationary Psychology' Has Set In - Dislodging It Won't Be Easy.
• Drug And Alcohol Abuse Slowing Labor Force Participation Rate, Fed Study Finds.
• The Greatest Danger To The Political-Corporate-Media Triumvirate Is That Musk Is Right.
• Fourth Bus Of Illegal Migrants From Texas Border Arrives In Washington DC.
• Something Is Rotten In The State Of Shanghai's Latest COVID Lockdowns.
• "I Think It's Gone Too Far" - Pioneering Trans Psychologist Says Too Many Teens Are Taking Hormones "Because It's Trendy".
• We Still Haven't Reached The Inflation Finale.
• Truck Drivers Are Facing Another Bloodbath.
• Zelensky Says Ukraine Won't Give Up Territory In Donbas, Claims Putin Could Use Tactical Nukes.
• How Much Radiation Is Emitted By Popular Smartphones?
• MSNBC Blast From The Past: It's Our Job To Control How People Think... Not Elon Musk's.
• China Threat Grows As Beijing's 'Tech-Based' Plans Dominate Washington's 'Finances-First' Approach.

MarketWatch.com:           

• A retired nurse lost $43,000 to bitcoin — watch out for red flags online.
  
• Mortgage rates soar to highest level in over a decade — even wealthy home buyers are feeling the pain.
  
• Inflation is raging, but these 16 companies have pricing power.

NewsMax:  

• Ukrainians Defy Deadline to Surrender in Mariupol or Die.
  
• Gordon Chang: COVID Policies 'Critical Threat' to China's Rule.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• 26-Year-Old Former Razorback Lineman Dies from Heart Attack.
• Democrat NYC Mayor Admits Progressive Politics Play a Role in Increased Crime (VIDEO).
• Austin Texas To Implement Pilot Of Radical Socialist ‘Guaranteed Income’ Program.
• Zelenskyy Calls for Biden to Visit Ukraine: ‘He Should Come Here’ (VIDEO).
• Stacey Abrams Increased Her Net Worth 3,000% in Less than 4 Years – What Is the Real Source of Her Income?
• Private Group Sues Philidelphia Mayor, Health Commissioner and Others for Reinstituting Insane COVID Mandates.
• This Is How They Steal: Remote Scanners Track Orange County Ballots at Drop Boxes. Why Not Just Collect Daily?
• Georgia’s Governor Kemp, Who Certified the Corrupted 2020 Election, Now Tries to Distance Himself from the Election.
• Zelenskyy Says the World Should ‘Be Ready’ For Nuclear War With Russia (VIDEO).
• Florida Department of Education Rejects 54 Math Textbooks for ‘Attempting to Indoctrinate Students’ With Critical Race Theory, Common Core.

The Epoch Times:

• Experts Warn of China’s Near-Monopoly on Freight Container Production, Threatening Global Supply Chain.
• ‘More People Will Be Killed by Lockdown Than by COVID-19’: Shanghai’s Top Pandemic Expert.

Twitter:

• @JackPosobiec - WEF’s Yuval Noah Harari: “Free will is over”. (video) This is the future Klaus Schwab wants. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 803,168 Reports(+3,437 from prior week) Through April 1st, 2021.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.25 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 67.25 +.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.30 +.12%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,614.0 +11.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.5 +1.8%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures -.63%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.1%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (BAC)/.74
• (BK)/.86
• (SCHW)/.84

After the Close:

• (JBHT)/1.94
• (PNFP)/1.58
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for April is estimated to fall to 77.0 versus 79.0 in March.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China GDP report could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,392.59 -2.4%

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 34,451.23 -.38%

• NASDAQ 13,351.08 -3.9%

• Russell 2000 2,004.98 -.24%

• S&P 500 High Beta 71.5 -2.6%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 242.03 -1.0%

• Wilshire 5000 44,429.29 -2.1%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,635.08 -3.9%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,627.87 -.51%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 824.51 +.55%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,180.06 -.78%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,341.65 -4.8%

• Transports 14,844.14 +1.64%

• Utilities 1,061.63 -.6%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 73.51 +2.4%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 45.0 -1.7%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,482.32 -.57%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 923.87 +.15%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 463,952 -.69%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 520 -549
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -35.5 unch.

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 308,594 -3.2%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,823,366 +1.5%

• Total Put/Call .95 -11.0%

• OEX Put/Call 1.65 -14.5%

• ISE Sentiment 99.0 -22.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .97 +70.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,622.0 +111.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 3.60 +4.8%
  

• Volatility(VIX) 22.2 +1.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.3 +8.9%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.23 +.48%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.9 -1.8%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,605.60 +1.2%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.560 Trillion n/a

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +n/a Million

• AAII % Bulls 15.8 -36.0%

• AAII % Bears 48.4 +16.9%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 311.92 +4.6%

• Crude Oil 106.02 +7.2%

• Reformulated Gasoline 336.53 +7.7%

• Natural Gas 7.31 +11.6%

• Heating Oil 386.66 +15.7% 
• Newcastle Coal 322.4 (1,000/metric ton) +7.6%
  

• Gold 1,972.54 +1.9%
• Silver 25.6 +3.4%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 573.74 -1.1%

• Copper 471.55 -.05%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 636.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%

• China Iron Ore Spot 156.65 USD/Metric Tonne +3.4%

• Lumber 895.0 -.86%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,658.77 +3.2%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 830.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.1% unch.
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +4.3% +.9 percentage points
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 25.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 4.4 -6.4%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 96.06 -25.9%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.35 +.13%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 55.6 -1.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.7 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.8 +4.2 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 9.0%(-10.0 percentage points) chance of +0.0-25.0 basis point hike, 91.0%(+10.0 percentage points) chance of +25.0-50.0 basis point rate hike on 5/4

• US Dollar Index 100.32 +.74%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,736.54 -.05%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 39,785 -5.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.60 +1.1%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 37.0 +16.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.83% +12.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.901 Trillion n/a

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.25 -5.4%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 138.41 +4.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 164.0 -5.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 66.80 +6.0%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 218.48 +3.1%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.59 +2.8%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 31.92 +7.0%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10,755.51 -7.6%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.5 -.74%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.91% +3.0 basis points

• TED Spread 28.5 -3.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.25 +.75 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 72.62 +6.4%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 332.0 +1.85%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 88.13 +.96%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 257.82 +9.0%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 116.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 75.8 -.2%

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 11.0 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,066.8 n/a

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 172,250 +1.2%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 43.1 +2.7% 

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 5.06% +2.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 393,500 -1.3%

• Weekly Retail Sales +13.4% +.3 percentage point
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -4.7% -.7 percentage point
• Box Office Weekly Gross $96.6M -7.7%
  

• Nationwide Gas $4.07/gallon -.07/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,068 +.34%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,117.7 -2.7%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.5 +30.0%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 104.40 -19.1%

• Rail Freight Carloads 271,884 +.61%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,040,285 -12.0%
• US Covid-19:  74 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of peak on 1/14/22  +10/100K people from prior week
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -93.2%(+.3 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

•  Small-Cap Value +1.0%

Worst Performing Style

•  Large-Cap Growth -3.1%
  

Leading Sectors

• Oil Service +6.4%

• Airlines +5.4%
  

• Shipping +4.5%

• Agriculture +4.2%

• Gold & Silver +4.1%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Video Gaming -3.9%
  

• Robotics -3.9%

• Semis -4.1%

• Software -4.7%
  

• Alt Energy -5.4%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (6)

• CXW, GNK, ROCC, ARIS, TPTX and RPRX
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (18)

• BAC, SNPS, IIVI, BBBY, DUOL, SAIA, MAX, XPO, FAST, LASR, VITL, IIPR, STT, GXO, BCRX, CLM, CSTL and CRF
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Earnings Jitters, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.5 -1.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,682.0 +170.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.50 -.33%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.9 -.27%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 39.6 +1.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 -16.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -5.6%

• NYSE Arms .96 +68.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.57 +1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 358.81 -2.5%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.82 -.75%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 164.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.87 -1.75%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 258.99 +3.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.46 +.1%
• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10,755.51 +.98%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 28.5 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.25 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  117.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.99 -.69%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.39 -.22%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .75% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 37.0 +3.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 156.7 USD/Metric Tonne +2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 55.60 +5.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.7 -1.0 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.8 -1.4 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.91 +8.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 74 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +2/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -93.3%(-.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -122 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -47 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my commodity/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long