Sunday, April 24, 2022

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                
Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (C), (HPQ), (NVDA), (AAPL), (MSFT), (RTX), (TMUS), (TSM), (ON), (AVGO), (OUT) and (XOM).
Fox News:  
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
MarketWatch.com:           
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.0 +2.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 73.75 +1.25 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.92 -.13%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,310.0 -304 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.30 +1.12%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.06%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.49%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.54%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (ATVI)/.70
  • (KO)/.58
  • (OTIS)/.74
  • (PHG)/.15
  • (LII)/2.08
After the Close:
  • (BRO)/.75
  • (CALX)/.20
  • (CR)/1.68
  • (CCK)/1.82
  • (PKG)/2.52
  • (PEP)/1.23
  • (SBAC)/2.49
  • (UHS)/2.47
  • (WHR)/4.79
  • (ZION)/1.14
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March.
10:30 am EST
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for April is estimated to fall to 4.5 versus 8.7 in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German IFO Guidance and the (HPE) fireside chat with Stifel could also impact trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Friday, April 22, 2022

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,276.90 -2.3%























 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 33,811.40 -1.9%
  • NASDAQ 12,839.39 -3.8%
  • Russell 2000 1,041.37 -3.0%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 68.91 -3.5%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 219.05 -9.5%
  • Wilshire 5000 43,119 -3.0%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,541.11 -3.4%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,598.50 -1.6%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 827.69 +.39%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,173.80 -.35%
  • NYSE Technology 3,196.72 -4.3%
  • Transports 15,067.0 +1.5%
  • Utilities 1,043.0 -1.7%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.2 +.9%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 42.48 -4.0%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,488.52 -.09%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 928.9 +.19%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 459,680 -.55%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -620 -1,140
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -34.3 +3.4%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 304,778 -1.2%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,783,725 -2.2%
  • Total Put/Call 1.28 +39.1%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.58 +19.2%
  • ISE Sentiment 70.0 -29.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.06 +7.6
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,452.0 -170.0 points
  • Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 3.24 -6.5%
  • Volatility(VIX) 27.7 +14.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.1 +4.2%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.84 +7.0%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.9 -1.8%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 13,738.77 -4.2%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.468 Trillion -1.4%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -15.861 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 18.9 +19.6%
  • AAII % Bears 43.9 -9.3%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 309.21 -.87%
  • Crude Oil 101.8 -4.3%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 329.56 -2.5%
  • Natural Gas 6.52 -8.6%
  • Heating Oil 393.62 +3.2% 
  • Newcastle Coal 322.4 (1,000/metric ton) +6.1%
  • Gold 1,933.68 -2.2%
  • Silver 24.25 -5.2%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 578.65 +.3%
  • Copper 458.10 -3.0%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 629.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 145.40 USD/Metric Tonne -5.9%
  • Lumber 1,010.50 +15.9%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,641.45 -1.1%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 820.0 USD/Short Ton -1.2%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.3% +.2 percentage point
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +4.6% +.3 percentage points
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 25.0% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 4.5 +1.8%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 69.7 -15.7%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 235.89 +.66%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 67.1 +11.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.7 +20.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.8 +12.0 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-9.0 percentage points) chance of +0.0-25.0 basis point hike, 97.9%(+6.9 percentage points) chance of +25.0-50.0 basis point rate hike on 5/4
  • US Dollar Index 101.23 +.90%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,723.47 -.71%
  • Bitcoin/USD 39,450 -1.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.80 +1.6%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 19.0 -18.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.90% +7.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.919 Trillion -.11%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.4 +4.4%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 138.36 -.03%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 170.0 +6.0 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 72.1 +14.6%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 221.70 +.9%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.56 -.01%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.7 +8.7%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,936.25 +12.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.5 +.01%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 3.01% +10.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 35.75 +7.25 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 30.0 +4.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.5 -1.75 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 79.17 +8.1%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 330.0 -.31%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 90.44 +2.6%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 269.44 +4.4%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 124.0 +8.0 basis points
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 76.4 +.7%
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 11.0 unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,086.7 +1.5%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 177,250 +2.6%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.0% -.1 percentage point
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 42.8 -.7% 
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 5.29% +23.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 374,000 -5.0%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +14.3% +.9 percentage point
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -4.8% -.1 percentage point
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $154.1M +53.0%
  • Nationwide Gas $4.12/gallon +.05/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,068 +.34%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 3,117.7 n/a
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 -7.7%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 102.17 -2.1%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 268,573 -1.2%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,279,905 +20.4%
  • US Covid-19:  92 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.0%(+1.0 percentage point) of peak on 1/14/22  +18/100K people from prior week
  • US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -92.6%(+.6 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
Best Performing Style
  •  Mid-Cap Value -.8%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Mid-Cap Growth -4.0%
Leading Sectors
  • Computer Services +2.8%
  • Airlines +2.2%
  • REITs +2.1%
  • Disk Drives +2.0%
  • Foods +1.2%
Lagging Sectors
  • Video Gaming -7.0%
  • Steel -7.3%
  • Internet -8.3%
  • Gold & Silver -9.9%
  • Alt Energy -10.1%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (3)
  • KMB, AN and GNTX
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (51)
  • SIL, SNBR, PINS, BCX, CSTL, RGEN, SCCO, EDR, CWEN, MORF, GOOG, ITCI, COIN, PLUG, IPI, QTRX, AVAV, NEM, SHLS, NVAX, COUR, BAX, RUN, CDXS, ALGN, RDFN, RUN, AMR, CENX, EXPI, URBN, RIOT, W, RIGS, AA, CPE, ACHC, FCX, TBK, CDLX, XM, PRCT, AEO, METC, SILK, ARCH, CRSR and GPS
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Healthcare/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance:  Every Sector Declining
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.5 +16.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,450.0 -246.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.64 -.29%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.2 +2.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.1 +10.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 80.0 -6.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.23 +12.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.25 -1.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.28 +5.1%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 354.16 +1.4%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.78 +2.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 170.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.97 +2.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 272.05 +4.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 29.49 +.17%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 12,011.3 +6.0%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 30.0 +1.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 36.0 +8.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.5 -1.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  123.0 +5.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 48.66 -.05%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 52.94 -.45%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .80% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 18.75 -3.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 143.10 USD/Metric Tonne -5.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 67.10 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 51.6 +19.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.8 +.7 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 3.0 -3.0 basis points
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at June 15th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 92 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.0%(unch.) of 1/14 peak +4/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -92.5%(+.3 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -230 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -119 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -22 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral