Monday, June 13, 2022

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:       
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch:                      
Zero Hedge
Newsmax:  
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
 The Epoch Times:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -3.0% to -2.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.0 +16.75 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 86.75 +10.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.61 -.04%.  
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,610.0 +27.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 32.7 -.74%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.39%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.56%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
6:00 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May is estimated to fall to 93.0 versus 93.2 in April.
8:30 am EST
  • PPI Final Demand MoM for May is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.5% gain in April.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for May is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in April. 
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Japan Industrial Production report, German ZEW Index, weekly US retail sales reports, Deutsche Bank Auto Industry Conference, CSFB Communications Conference, Oppenheimer Consumer Growth/E-Commerce Conference, Deutsche Bank Consumer Conference, (ANF) investor day, (SNOW) investor day and the RBC Fin Tech Conference could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Sharply into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Airline/Gambling Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance:  Every Sector Declining
  • Volume:  Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 32.8 +18.1%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.08% +8.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,721.0 -185.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.11 -1.0%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 13.2 +4.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 50.6 +5.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 +26.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.29 -.77%
  • NYSE Arms 1.61 +17.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 97.04 +6.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 378.29 +.8%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 323.0 +30.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 118.49 +8.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 240.0 basis points +23.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.0 +15.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 326.02 +5.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.3 -1.21%
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 5,934.75 +16.2%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 39.0 basis points +3.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 44.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 basis points -6.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  136.0 +16.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 47.30 -1.3%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.70 -.76%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.25% +22.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 8.5 basis points (2s/10s) -13.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 134.4 USD/Metric Tonne -4.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -45.0 +1.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 35.3 +7.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.1 +9.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.76 -1.0 basis point
  • 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at July 27th FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st meeting
US Covid-19:
  • 228 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 13.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak -6/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -82.0%(-.8 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -512 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -180 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +58 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -4.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gambling -9.5% 2) Airlines -7.7% 3) Oil Service -6.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • NZE, RA, RPRX, FA, PFLT, TCPC, CTT, CGBD, STEP, PTY, KRP, MAIN, SLRC, STWD, BBN, FROG, PDI, ABR, NFJ, WMS, AINV, KREF, GMS, UDMY, AGNC, ARIS, SNDX, SIL, BPMC, RC, EFC, EBIX, BPT, WYNN, CUBI, ACRE, RCL, HHC, ESTE, CCL, GSHD, PLD, TRIP, PYCR, BZH, ARI, SJT, COIN, NCLH, ZI, DOCU, SD, CRGY, CMP, SBNY, NYT, IVR, SI, LVLU and MSTR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CIM 2) STWD 3) LQD 4) ORCL 5) EMB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ELMS 2) REV 3) PETZ 4) ASTR 5) AUPH
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -2.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Insurance -1.1% 2) Foods -1.2% 3) Restaurants -1.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DAWN and RDBX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CIM 2) STWD 3) AGNC 4) VRAY 5) NRZ
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) RDBX 2) BLUE 3) HILS 4) AERC 5) EKSO

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +22.1% Above 100-Day Average 
  • 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
  • 4.5% of Issues Advancing, 93.2% Declining
  • 0 New 52-Week Highs, 624 New Lows
  • 25.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 39.9% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,517.0 -376.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,690.0 -.65%
  • Vix 34.5 +24.1%
  • Total Put/Call 1.19 -8.5%
  • TRIN/Arms 2.26 +65.7%

Sunday, June 12, 2022

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:           
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News: 
CNBC:
Zero Hedge
NewsMax:     
TheGatewayPundit.com:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -2.75.% to -1.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.75 +12.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 80.75 +4.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.96 -.25%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,817.0 -92.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.3 +4.2%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.67%.
  • S&P 500 futures -1.44%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -2.0%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • (ORCL)/1.38
Economic Releases
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The UK GDP report, Wells Fargo Streaming/Connectivity Conference, Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference and the BIO International Convention could also impact trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open sharply lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.