Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:             

• Biden’s Woes at Home Loom Over Mideast Trip That’s All About Oil.
• IMF Cuts Month-Old Forecast for US GDP, Citing Inflation Risks.  
• China’s Plunging Markets Flash Fresh Warning Signs on Economy.  
• WeChat Is China’s Most Beloved (and Feared) Surveillance Tool.  
• Sri Lanka President Rajapaksa Flees to Maldives, BBC Reports.   
• Recession Angst Looks Set to Subdue Asian Bourses: Markets Wrap.
• Twitter Hits Back at Musk, Suing to Force $44 Billion Buyout.  
• Elon Musk’s Twitter Fight Points to M&A Experts’ Big Fear: Collapsing Deals.  
• Google to Slow Hiring for Rest of Year, Alphabet CEO Says.  
• ‘Recession Man’: Burry’s Tweets Resonate With Traders Worried About a Downturn.  
• Millions of Americans Regret the Great Resignation.  
• N.J. Debt Totals More Than $248 Billion, Led by Benefits Burden. 
• Fed’s Barkin Is Open to Raising Rates by 50 or 75 Basis Points in July.  
• ‘God Bless America ETF’ May Be Coming Soon With the Ticker YALL.

Wall Street Journal:     

• Housing Could Provide More Fuel for Inflation.
• The Incredible Falling Euro Nears Dollar Parity. Sharp movements in exchange rates create uncertainty and can lead to economic and financial instability.
• Heathrow Limits Passengers Amid Staff Shortages. 
• The Never-Ending Covid Emergency Another extension forces states to pad their Medicaid rolls.
• Wokeness Is Putin’s Weapon. Russia and China capitalize on the West’s moral and political confusion.

Fox News:

• Chilling surveillance video shows police response as Uvalde gunman killed 19 kids, 2 adults.
• Uvalde, Texas, mayor alleges shooting investigation 'cover-up'.
• GOP senator, law professor spar over who can get pregnant.
• BofA analysts warn avenue to stop rampant inflation bad news for America.

CNBC.com:

• Delivery startup Gopuff cuts 10% of its global workforce and closes 76 U.S. warehouses.
• Founders of bankrupt crypto hedge fund 3AC go missing, as investors try to recoup assets.
• Facebook cuts hundreds of custodial jobs after ending contract with facility management vendor.
• Microsoft cuts small percentage of employees as new fiscal year begins.
• Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa flees the country.
• Euro reaches parity against dollar, hits lowest level since 2002.
• These 10 U.S. real estate markets are cooling the fastest: What to know as a prospective buyer. 
  

MarketWatch:            

• Rivian CEO letter: EV maker ‘not immune’ to economic slowdown, considers workforce reduction. 
• U.S. yield curve inverts by most in more than 15 years ahead of Wednesday’s CPI data  
• U.S. inflation is still rising. Can it reach 9%?  
• ‘Scary times’: Builders are slashing home prices and slowing construction as buyers pull back, survey shows.

Zero Hedge:

• The World Braces For Europe's July 22 "Doomsday".
• Starbucks Closing 16 Stores In Major Cities Due To 'Increasing Threats' From Bathroom Drug Dens. 
• Victor Davis Hanson: Left-Wing Elites Are Our New Antoinettes.
• "Whereabouts Unknown": 3 Arrows Capital Founders Go MIA Amidst Crypto Firm's Bankruptcy.
• 'The Most Important Chart In Macro': Cyclical Components Of GDP.
• Video Hidden By US Navy For 6 Months Shows 34 Hours Of Spewing Jet Fuel In Hawaii.
• PC Demand Suffers 'Steepest Decline In Years' As Chip Shortage Turns To Glut.
• Best part of summer is over...
• GOP Newcomer Mayra Flores Hits Back Against Liberal Media Smears.
• IMF Slashes US GDP Outlook, Hikes Unemployment Forecast, Sees Miracle In Inflation.
• US stocks declined and oil slumped on growth woes, while EUR fended off parity - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• 62,000 Unvaxx'd Guards, Reserve Soldiers Facing Loss Of Pay As Army Prepares To Enforce Vaccine Mandate.
• Bill Gross Blasts "Ignorant" Fed For Enabling "Global Supernova", Says Hike Rates ASAP, But...
• Twitter Officially Sues Musk To Force Deal Completion.
• Is Deese Nuts? White House Says "No Recession", Preemptively Blames Scorching CPI On "Stale" Gas Data.
• WTI Holds Big Losses After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Builds.
• EUR/USD tests parity as cyclical assets tumble further ahead of CPI - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.'
• Trains Could Literally Stop Running In The US One Week From Now.
• Long Beach Container Backlog Crosses Red Line As Delays Mount.
• 'Fake CPI' Report Spooks Stocks; Yield Curve Inverts, Crude Crashes On Stagflation Scares.

Newsmax:

• Peter Navarro: January 6 Committee 'Trying to Build a Hoax'.
• Bannon Prods Jan. 6 Panel to Let Him Testify Publicly, Vowing to Go 'Medieval'.
• Sen. Ernst: Fauci, NIH End 'Heinous' Dog Experiments.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Accidental Heatstroke Blamed For Former Dallas Cowboys Running Back Marion Barber’s Death.
• Orwellian: New Emails Confirm CDC Officials Scrambled to Change “Problematic” Definition of ‘Vaccine, Vaccinated’ Because Experimental mRNA Jab Did Not Qualify Under Old Definition.
• Los Angeles Schools To Offer Transgender Lesson Plans And Resources For Elementary Children.
• It Begins: New Zealand Doctors Send Letter Asking Police to Investigate Deaths Following COVID Vaccinations.
• Jill Biden’s Office Apologizes For First Lady Comparing Hispanics to Breakfast Tacos After Major Backlash.
• Just in Time For the Midterms: Dr. Fauci: We Can’t Just “Put This Pandemic Behind Us” (VIDEO).
• Netflix Star Busisiwe ‘Busi’ Lurayi Dies ‘Suddenly’ at Age 36.
• World Health Organization Issues New Gender Guidance: ‘Sex Is Not Limited To Male Or Female’.
• Poll: A Majority of Democrats Have an Unfavorable View of the Supreme Court and Want It Abolished.
• In Biden’s Economy – Americans are Resorting To Microloans to Buy Gas and Groceries.

 The Epoch Times:

• Blinken Vows US Will Defend Ally Philippines From China’s ‘Intimidation’.
• China’s COVID Lockdowns Inflict ‘Psychological Scars’ and ‘Endless Humiliation’: Shanghai Resident.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 837,191 Reports(+2,129 from prior week) Through June 24th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 150.5 +1.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 82.5 +.5 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.49 +.03%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,024.0 +27.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.1 -.16%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (DAL)/1.65
• (FAST)/.49
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• The CPI MoM for June is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.0% gain in May.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for June is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in May.
• The CPI YoY for June is estimated to rise +8.8% versus a +8.6% gain in May.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for June.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -468,710 barrels versus a +8,234,00 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,007,570 barrels versus a -2,496,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to rise by +792,290 barrels versus a -1,266,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.31% versus a -.5% prior.

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for June is estimated at -$75.0B versus -$174.2B in May.
• US Fed Beige Book release.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (GOOG) 20-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Trade Data report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the 30Y T-Bond auction could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, China Virus Lockdown/Bubble Bursting Worries, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Commodity/Software Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Mixed
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.0 -.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .85% +9.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,066.0 -180.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.45 -.35%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.6 +2.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.3 -1.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .87 -6.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.1 -43.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 91.72 -.33%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 521.28 +1.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 480.0 +21.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 130.84 +1.9%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 198.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 157.0 +5.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 366.74 +2.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.52 -.58%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11,977.90 +3.9%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 28.75 basis points -25.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.25 basis points -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  144.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.05 -.26%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .98 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.51 -.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.14% +15.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -8.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.70 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -59.2 -3.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -48.4 -6.8 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.7 -1.7 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 61.6%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 2.75%-3.0%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 46.4%(-1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 258 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 15.0%(+2.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak +27/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -73.9%(+1.4 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +224 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -53 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -35 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -4.0% 2) Energy -2.6% 3) Software -2.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• INVH, PLAY, OXY, HQY, AVTR, EVH, CRM, HUBS, MDB, CDLX, DDOG, SNOW, NOV, ZS, DWAC, AMN, ENPH, PDCE, GTLB, DICE, BPT, ACLX, TENB, FRSH, NOW, SBOW, PLRX and HASI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SRLN 2) CSX 3) ARKG 4) KBH 5) FXI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NOW 2) PSMT 3) HASI 4) GPS 5) AXSM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +4.9% 2) Gambling +2.8% 3) I-Banking +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HLF, TH, AAL, BXSL and GKOS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NWL 2) FIS 3) ALNY 4) PLAY 5) SRG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GLSI 2) GOEV 3) TH 4) BFRI 5) AAL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -16.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 63.3% of Issues Advancing, 33.1% Declining
• 7 New 52-Week Highs, 115 New Lows
• 18.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 41.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,019.0 -242.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,332.0 -.66%
  
• Vix 26.3 +.31%
• Total Put/Call .83 -10.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.13 -42.1%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.25 +2.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 82.0 +.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.49 -.11%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,312.0 +66.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.1 -.25%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ANGO)/.01
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST:

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June is estimated to fall to 92.5 versus 93.1 in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (GOOG) 20-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK GDP report, weekly US retail sales reports, 10Y T-Note auction, SEMICON West and the (AMZN) Prime Day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.