Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 Index 4,228.90 -1.22%

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 33,635.92 -.13%

• NASDAQ 12,684.59 -2.58%

• Russell 2000 1,958.79 -2.94%

• S&P 500 High Beta 69.07 -4.40%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 206.6 -12.0%

• Wilshire 5000 42,477.92 -1.49%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,531.49 -1.69%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,554.26 -1.25%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 797.95 +1.92%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,172.89 -.60%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,030.66 -4.42%

• Transports 14,763.32 -2.4%

• Utilities 1,054.79 +1.43%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 70.11 -3.54%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.84 -2.8%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,455.69 +.27%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 907.57 -.04%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 467,984 +.28%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -31 -110
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -27.2 +11.3%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 210,651 -17.0%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,570,131 -2.3%

• Total Put/Call 1.0 +5.3%

• OEX Put/Call 3.71 +19.4%

• ISE Sentiment 86.0 +18.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .94 +46.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,205.0 +381.0 points
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 2.85 -5.0%
  

• Volatility(VIX) 20.8 +6.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .66% -40.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.53 +5.0%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.81 +17.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.2 +6.9%

• Smart Money Flow Index 16,074.40 +5.2%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.562 Trillion -.12%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$2.623 Million

• AAII % Bulls 33.3 +3.4%

• AAII % Bears 37.2 +1.4%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 290.33 -1.1%

• Crude Oil 90.75 -1.5%

• Reformulated Gasoline 301.74 -1.3%

• Natural Gas 9.33 +5.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 244.55 euros/megawatt-hour +19.1%
  

• Heating Oil 370.49 +4.87% 
• Newcastle Coal 433.0 (1,000/metric ton) 6.7%
  

• Gold 1,747.98 -2.97%
• Silver 19.08 -8.3%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 435.53 -1.9%

• Copper 365.75 -.6%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 385.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.53%

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.50 USD/Metric Tonne -2.98%

• Lumber  527.60 -10.4%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,482.38 -2.8%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 680.0 USD/Short Ton -2.2%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.6% -.9 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -13.5% -.1 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 50.0% unch.
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 3.0 -10.8%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 95.8 -13.5%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.64 +.25:  Growth Rate +15.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 17.9 -.1 point

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.4 +8.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -51.4 -3.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.4 -6.9 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point rate hike, 54.5%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of +50.0 basis point hike, 45.5%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of +75.0 basis point hike on 9/21

• US Dollar Index 108.05 +2.3%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,655.66 -.74%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 21,439.0 -12.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.38 +.53%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -28.25 +11.25 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.98% +12.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.814 Trillion -.33%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.98 +5.1%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 200.69 -.02%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 222.0 +13.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 70.92 -2.6%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 263.98 +8.5%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.50 -2.4%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 35.23 +3.6%

• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10,047.64 n/a

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.7 +1.1%

• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.72% -36.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.56% +8.0 basis points

• TED Spread 34.0 -3.25 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 34.5 +4.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.5 +2.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 80.50 +8.6%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 352.0 +2.8% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 331.0 -3.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 110.23 +10.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 323.19 +16.3%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 133.0 +19.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.08 -.17%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .92 -7.0 basis points

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 5.9 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,189.90 +1.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 246,750 -1.1%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.0% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 43.20 -1.01% 

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 5.66% +12.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 273,300 -2.3%

• Weekly Retail Sales +11.6% +1.2 percentage points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 +2.1% +4.7 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $136.9M -9.5%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.92/gallon -.06/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,320 -10.6%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 2,993.67 -2.6%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 42.50+30.8%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 55.52 -12.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 264,924 -.39%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,320,085 +13.3%
• US Covid-19:  203 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 11.7%(-1.2 percentage points) of peak on 1/14/22(1,740) -21/100K people from prior report
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -73.6%(-1.5 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -1.3%

Worst Performing Style

•  Small-Cap Growth -3.3%
  

Leading Sectors

• Utilities +1.5%

• Foods +1.2%
  

• Computer Services +.5%

• Energy +.4%

• Insurance +.1%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Homebuilders -5.2%
  

• Social Media -5.6%

• Airlines -5.6%

• Gambling -5.8%
  

• Alt Energy -11.2%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (3)

• FL, ORI and CQP
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (41)

• HIW, ENFN, STAA, CARG, FRPT, RAMP, KSS, TASK, CELH, INFA, BE, PBT, ITRI, KAR, AAL, EXAS, SKYW, TWLO, AMC, EPR, APP, FSLY, SMG, RVLV, XMTR, TREE, ETSY, ENVX, OSTK, CHPT, LMND, BYND, COIN, MSTR, BMBL, SYM, RDFN, TPIC, ASAN, MARA and AFRM
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Surging Long-Term Rates, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Dollar Strength, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.8 +6.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .66% +52.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,197.0 +255.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.33 +.21%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 +1.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.0 +6.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 85.0 -24.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.02 +12.1%

• NYSE Arms .85 -16.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.12 +3.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 399.49 +.01%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 331.0 -5.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 110.83 +5.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 227.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.90 +1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 321.89 +3.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.67 +.09%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9,588.9 n/a
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 34.5 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 34.0 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  132.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 48.14 -.04%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .92 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.80 -.27%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.64% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve -28.25 basis points (2s/10s) +8.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.40 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.4 +1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -51.4 +.2 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.4 -1.4 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.64 +.03:  Growth Rate +15.6% unch., P/E 17.9 -.2 point
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +1.62% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.23 +4.0 basis points
  

• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 -12.0 basis points: 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 50.1%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 45.6%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.50%-3.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 203 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 11.7%(-.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -73.8%(-.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -195 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -64 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my commodity/utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -17.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 10.0% of Issues Advancing, 86.4% Declining
• 15 New 52-Week Highs, 38 New Lows
• 38.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,207.0 +218.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,901.43 -.57%
  
• Vix 21.1 +7.9%
• Total Put/Call 1.03 +13.2%
• TRIN/Arms .86 -16.7%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• Xi and Putin to Attend G-20 Summit in Bali, Indonesian President Says.  
• Xi Starts March to Third Term in China Facing Problems at Home and Abroad.  
• China’s Banks Set to Cut Key Rates Amid Covid, Property Slumps.
• Tesla Asks China for Help as Summer Power Crunch Hits Suppliers.
  
• Japan Inflation Continues to Accelerate Beyond BOJ’s 2% Goal.  
  
• UK Consumer Confidence Falls to Lowest Since 1974 as Prices Jump.
  
• Fertilizer Usage Is Being Pummeled by Europe’s Energy Crisis.
  
• Stocks Set for Firm Asia Open, US Futures Steady: Markets Wrap.
• Cohen Makes Millions on Bed Bath & Beyond as Meme Traders Recoil.
  
• Layoffs Are in the Works at Half of Companies, PwC Survey Shows.  
• Fed Officials Offer Mixed Signals on Size of September Rate Hike.  
• Outrage at Hedge Fund Proves Futile as US CEOs Reap Record Pay.
• Fed Eyes Bank Reserve Risks That Triggered End to QT Last Time.

Wall Street Journal:    

• Wall Street Bets the Fed Is Bluffing in High-Stakes Inflation Game.
• Fed’s Bullard Leans Toward Favoring 0.75-Percentage-Point September Rate Rise.
• The Centers for Disease Politics. The agency offers a mea minima culpa for its manifest Covid failures.
• Twitter Becomes a Tool of Government Censorship. Alex Berenson was kicked off the site at the White House’s urging. That’s a violation of the First Amendment. 
• U.S. Plans to Shift Bill for Covid Shots and Treatments to Insurers, Patients.
• China, U.S. Trade Climate Barbs as Ties Fray.
• U.S., Taiwan Set for Trade, Investment Talks This Fall.

Fox News:

• LIVE UPDATES:How Garland may have hurt the DOJ's fight to keep Trump raid affidavit sealed.
• Have an iPhone? Millions of users warned to change settings now.
• Parents put elite all-female school staff on notice over controversial trans policy.

CNBC.com:

• Activist investor Ryan Cohen completes planned sale of Bed Bath & Beyond stake, stock falls 30%.
• Home sales fell nearly 6% in July as housing market slides into a recession.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Bed Bath & Beyond, Applied Materials and more.
• Home Depot CEO Ted Decker to replace retiring Craig Menear as chair.
• Home Depot and Lowe’s cite strong demand in earnings reports, but softening could be ahead.

MarketWatch:       

• You should proceed with caution if you trade stocks based on this popular market signal.  
  
• Bed Bath & Beyond stock sinks after Ryan Cohen discloses plan to unload stake; cash remains a worry, say analysts.

Zero Hedge:

• Blood, Bath And Bankrupt? BBBY Hires Restructuring Advisor.
• As If Millions Of Apes Suddenly Cried Out In Terror: Ryan Cohen Dumps Entire BBBY Stake.
• Brian Stelter Out At CNN.
• Amazon Accuses FTC Of Issuing 'Unfair, Unreasonable' Demands As Part Of Probe Into Prime.
• US stocks finished mildly higher and the dollar strengthened amid encouraging data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• China Condemns Newly Announced Formal US-Taiwan Trade Talks.
• Beyond boring equities - BIG stuff is moving.
• Data Shows Number Of Low-Income Audits Could Triple As IRS Grows.
• Waiting for the expirationzzzzz....
• Dollar surges vs Euro and Pound after strong US data and Schnabel's warning for Europe - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• The 6 Things That Matter For Markets, And What Goldman's Traders Think.
• Brace For Even Higher Beef Prices As Texas Cattle Industry Faces Historic Drought Crisis.
• Multiple Explosions Rock Russia's Crimean Port City Of Sevastopol.
• Stocks Stumble, Memes Mauled In Sleepy Session Fit For Sandman.

Newsmax:

• Rep. McCaul: US ‘Needs to Wake Up’ to China’s Goal of World Domination.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Newly-Obtained Moderna Documents Show mRNA COVID Vaccines Cause ‘Skeletal Malformation’ – Here’s What Happened To The Offspring Of Lab Rats Who Were Jabbed.
• Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Announces 20 Arrests For Voter Fraud (VIDEO).
• Prominent Podcaster Sam Harris Admits a Conspiracy to Prevent Trump Presidency was “Warranted” and “Would Not Have Cared” if Hunter hid Corpses of Children.
• Facebook and Instagram Take Down Bobby Kennedy Jr.’s Children’s Health Defense Fund Pages Over Bogus “Misinformation” Accusations.
• Luke Knox, Florida College Football Player and Brother of Buffalo Bills TE Dawson Knox, Dies Suddenly at the Age of 22.
• Whose Side Was She On? Biden Called Liz Cheney After Defeat.
• CHANGE: Nearly 2 Million Kids Left Public Schools Between 2020 And 2021.
• “I Don’t Know What’s Happening. I Don’t Know Why the Policy Has Not Changed” – Lt. John Bowes Discusses Challenges of 700 Unvaccinated US Pilots with TGP’s Jim Hoft (VIDEO).
  

The Epoch Times:

• China to Take Part in Military Drills With Russia, Starting This Month.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 854,081 Reports(+2,712 from prior week) Through August 5th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.25 +2.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 72.25 -.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.88 -.1%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,991.0 +7.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.1 +.44%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.08%.

• S&P 500 futures -.18%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BKE)/.90
• (DE)/6.68
• (FL)/.81
• (VIPS)/1.68
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK retail sales report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.