Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -.7% 2) Video Gaming -.4% 3) Social Media -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MTCH, PCRX, AFRM, RXDX, RVNC, SPWR, HASI, BRZE, W, MDGL, S and ETSY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RLMD 2) ACWI 3) VOO 4) FAST 5) KRE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LTRY 2) ETSY 3) GEF 4) MNSO 5) BCC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +2.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Banks +4.9% 2) Oil Service +3.9% 3) Energy +3.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DWAC, DCT, ACI, DPZ, AXSM, VRE, BROS, AEHR, BIIB, MC, DICE, XHR, WBA, ONTO, DAL, KRNY, HQY, AMAT, BLK, LRCX and FAST
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RLMD 2) ACI 3) ACWI 4) MMAT 5) IMUX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) INMD 2) SVC 3) DWAC 4) ACI 5) BIIB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +26.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 59.3% of Issues Advancing, 37.3% Declining
• 16 New 52-Week Highs, 856 New Lows
• 19.0%(-7.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 41.0 +4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 47.0 -2.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,124.94 -.68%
  
• Vix 32.2 -4.1%
• Total Put/Call .83 -17.8%
• TRIN/Arms .66 -14.3% 

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• China’s Pain From Deflating Housing Bubble Will Linger for Years
• Shanghai Covid Cases Jump to Three-Month High as Schools Close.
• Taiwan Urges Calm on TSMC, Downplays Impact of Biden Chip Rules.  
• UK Estate Agents Turn Pessimistic Seeing Drop in House Prices. 
• Yen Falls to 24-Year Low as Kuroda Vows Loose Policy.
• Global Equities Fluctuate Ahead of Key US CPI Data: Markets Wrap.   
• Price-Setting Talks for Russian Oil Cap Plan Set to Start.
• Oil Halts Tumble as Slowdown Concerns Offset OPEC Supply Cuts.
• Fed Officials Worry About the Risks of Doing Too Little on Inflation.  
• Fed’s Bowman Sees Sizable Hikes on Table Unless Inflation Falls.  
• Americans Will Pay the Most in 25 Years to Stay Warm This Winter.    
• Biden’s ‘Slight’ Recession Would Mean Economic Pain for Millions.  
• Applied Materials Cuts Forecast, Blaming China Export Curbs.
• LA City Councilmember Democrat Nury Martinez Resigns After Racist Comments.   
• Hedge Fund Managers Paid for Stockpicking Genius Aren’t Showing Much of It.  
• Yellen Worries Over Loss of ‘Adequate Liquidity’ in Treasuries. 
• Ex-Fed Official Clarida Sees Rates Staying in 4.5%-5% Range for ‘Long Time’.
• Boaz Weinstein Predicts Years of Market Worry: ‘We’re in a Fog’.  
• US Will Nearly Double Temporary Visas for Nonagricultural Jobs.
• Seven Senate Races Will Make or Break Biden’s Agenda.
• Local TV Stations Are Cleaning Up on Political Advertising This Election Season.

Wall Street Journal:

• TikTok Parent Sets Sights on Spotify With Expanded Music Service.
• How Ukrainian Strategy Is Running Circles Around Russia’s Lumbering Military.
• U.S. Suppliers Halt Operations at Top Chinese Memory Chip Maker.
• U.K. Pension Funds Rush to Raise Cash.
• Who Blew Up Britain’s Pension Funds? A crisis probably was inevitable after a decade of too-low interest rates.
• California to Doctors: Agree With Us or Shut Up. The state empowers a medical board to punish ‘misinformation.’ 
• Fed Minutes Show Concerns of More Persistent High Inflation.
• ACT Test Scores Drop to Lowest Levels in More Than 30 Years.

CNBC.com:

• Fed officials expect higher rates to stay in place, meeting minutes show.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Digital World, Victoria’s Secret and more.
  

MarketWatch:       

• When will mortgage rates go down? Brace yourself, economists warn house hunters that rates of 7% may be the ‘new normal.’.
  
• Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ is flashing a warning that stocks could be about to fall off a cliff. 
  
• AMC stock sinks to pre-‘meme stock’ levels as B. Riley slashes price target by 32%.
  
• Nvidia, Intel gaming cards go on sale while AMD teases Nov. 3 announcement.  
• Opinion: The stock market is in trouble. That’s because the bond market is ‘very close to a crash.’.  
• Utilities slump into bear market as defensive sector suffers historically steep selloff.  
• Why questions are swirling about who will buy more than $31 trillion of U.S. debt — and at what price.  
• This is what stock-market investors will be watching for in Thursday’s CPI report after wholesale inflation rises.

Zero Hedge:

• The Fed Is Now Paying $500 Million To A Handful Of Banks Every Day, And Suddenly Has A Very Big Problem.
• Pfizer Exec Admits Under Oath: 'We Never Tested COVID Vaccine Against Transmission'.
• Biden "Actively Pushing Us To Brink Of A Nuclear Holocaust": Tulsi Gabbard Goes Off In Tucker Interview. 
• All Global Energy Infrastructure At Risk After This "Most Dangerous Precedent": Putin. 
• US Imports Sink In September, Suffer Steepest Drop Since 2020 Lockdowns.
• IMF Draws Up Nightmare Scenario Of Housing Crisis.
• Tulsi Gabbard To Stump For GOP Candidate A Day After Leaving Democratic Party.
• Pre CPI zzzztress.
• US stocks finished slightly lower after hot PPI data and mixed FOMC Minutes - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "What Hell's Like" - Jury Orders Alex Jones To Pay Sandy Hook Families, FBI Agent $1 Billion.
• Hours Before Decrying "Horrifying Images", Biden DHS Head Was Told Border Agents Did Not Whip Haitian Migrants.
• NYT Fluffs Biden, Says Lies Are "Folksy".
• Apple To Strip Workers In Its Unionized Store From Generous Employee Perks.
• WTI Holds Losses After Big Crude, Gasoline Build.
• Stocks and yields lower after mixed Fed minutes ahead of US CPI - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Everything's Fixed... Except What's Broken.
• Markets Tread Water Ahead Of CPI Chaos, Shrug Off Hawkish Minutes.

Newsmax:  

• Tehran Turnabout: US Says Iran Nuclear Deal Is 'Not Our Focus Right Now'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BIDEN ECONOMY: Mortgage Rates Rise to 16 Year Highs – Annual Home Sales Slump by 39%.
• “The UK Financial Crisis is Getting Worse” – George Gammon.
• Montgomery County Schools Share Data Claiming 582% Increase in Gender Nonconforming Students.
• Newly Sworn In Alberta Premier Danielle Smith Says Unvaxxed People the ‘Most Discriminated Against Group that I’ve Ever Witnessed in my Lifetime’.
• BREAKING: Arizona PBS To Defy The Arizona Clean Elections Commission, Allow Katie Hobbs One-On-One Interview In Place Of Debate – Kari Lake Releases ‘Statement On PBS’ Betrayal’.
• HATE HOAX: Author of Social Media Threat Proclaiming White Power And Threatening Murder Spree Against Blacks at County Fair Identified As Black Teen.
• FDA Authorizes Moderna and Pfizer Updated Booster Shots Against Omicron for Kids as Young as 5 to 11.
• Update: Colorado Secretary of State Says 30,000 Noncitizens Received Voter Registration Notices Due to ‘Database Glitch’ Related to List of Residents with Driver’s Licenses.
• Excess Mortality Rate Increased by 16% More than Average in EU Countries with High Vaccination Rate (VIDEO).
• Freedom Caucus Calls On GOP To Delay Defense Bill If Vaccine Mandate Not Repealed.
  

The Epoch Times:

• China Called ‘Most Consequential’ Challenge in Biden’s National Security Strategy.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 877,727 Reports(+5,890 from prior week) Through September 30th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 199.0 -1.0 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 109.5 +.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.25 -.07%   
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 48.50 +.18%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.27 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 31.8 +.04%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.12%.

• S&P 500 futures +.35%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BLK)/7.41
• (CMC)/2.23
• (DAL)/1.54
• (DPZ)/2.98
• (FAST)/.48
• (HTLD)/.31
• (PGR)/1.30
• (TSM)/10.37
• (WBA)/10.77
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Aug.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.6% gain in Aug.
• The CPI YoY for Sept. is estimated to rise +8.1% versus an +8.3% gain in Aug.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Sept.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 225K versus 219K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1365K versus 1361K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone CPI report, Germany CPI report, 30Y T-Bond auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (VSCO) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% Net Long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Less Hawkish Fed Hopes, Short-Covering, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 33.9 +.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.09%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.3 +.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.80 +.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.7 +.32%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 52.1 -.42% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +17.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 -1.0%

• NYSE Arms .77 -10.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 102.72 -.32%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 425.94 +1.08%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 408.0 -22.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 148.36 -.8% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 440.0 +2.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 242.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 200.05 +3.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 324.60 +.52%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.2 -.22%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 31.0 basis points -3.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -70.25 basis points -5.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  181.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 45.51 -.07%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .81 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.26 -.10%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.60% +18.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -38.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 93.45 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 159.9 euros/megawatt-hour +2.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.30 +.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.50 +2.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.9 -1.0 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 235.57 n/a:  Growth Rate +15.4% n/a, P/E 15.2 n/a
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.30 +15.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.89% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.11% unch.: CPI YoY +8.20% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for December 14th FOMC meeting: 54.2%(-6.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for February 1st meeting: 52.6%(-7.1 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -84.5%(-.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +18 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -124 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +41 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  25% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 33.2% of Issues Advancing, 63.0% Declining
• 3 New 52-Week Highs, 268 New Lows
• 19.4%(-5.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 37.0 n/a
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 48.9 +1.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,171.06 +.01%
  
• Vix 33.8 +.4%
• Total Put/Call 1.0 +5.3%
• TRIN/Arms .97 +12.8%