Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 3,591.12 -1.33%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 29,662.77 +1.24%

• NASDAQ 10,371.16 -2.67%

• Russell 2000 1,687.82 -.77%

• S&P 500 High Beta 56.35 -5.2%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 159.27 -5.2%

• Wilshire 5000 36,170.63 -4.33%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,088.55 -2.5%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,360.96 -.53%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 704.13 +1.6%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,036.45 -1.6%
  

• NYSE Technology 2,395.90 -5.1%

• Transports 12,535.85 +.49%

• Utilities 847.42 -1.88%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 66.11 +1.2%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 34.36 -3.76%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,422.74 -.39%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 917.19 -.07%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 435,929 -1.1%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -2,849 -2,490
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -30.8 -5.3%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 241,999 +7.0%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,495,538 -.63%

• Total Put/Call .80 -23.5%

• OEX Put/Call .91 +30.5%

• ISE Sentiment 98.0 +2.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.42 +3.1% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 48.7 -.81%
• Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 1.59 -19.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 32.7 +4.11%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.75% +109.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 52.8 +3.8%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 12.7 +3.3%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.6 +1.3%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,570.58 +3.8%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  19.8 -18.3 points
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.588 Trillion +.22%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$1.384 Million

• AAII % Bulls 20.4 -14.6%

• AAII % Bears 55.9 +2.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 282.49 +.08%

• Crude Oil 85.52 -8.0%

• Reformulated Gasoline 262.15 -4.9%

• Natural Gas 6.44 -2.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 142.0 euros/megawatt-hour -9.3%
  

• Heating Oil 397.74 -.9% 
• Newcastle Coal 395.0 (1,000/metric ton) +4.0%
  

• Gold 1,641.73 -3.1%
• Silver 18.19 -10.0%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 415.92 +1.2%

• Copper 340.95 +1.1%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 363.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.55%

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.80 USD/Metric Tonne -3.9%

• Lumber  489.60 +10.1%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,512.86 -.04%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 580.0 USD/Short Ton +.88%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.89% unch.
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -12.0% -2.1 percentage points
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 60.0% +10.0 percentage points
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.19 -4.0%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 134.43 +29.0%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 235.19 -.73:  Growth Rate +15.3% -.3 percentage point, P/E 15.4 -.2 point

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.4 +12.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.7 +3.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.7 -.8 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point rate hike, 0.0%(-18.9 percentage points) chance of +50.0 basis point hike and 99.3%(+18.2 percentage points) chance of +75.0 basis point hike on 11/2 to 3.75-4.0%
  

• US Dollar Index 113.38 +.51%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,582.98 -.86%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 19,369.50 -.82%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 149.21 +2.3%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -48.75 -5.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.02% +14.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.724 Trillion unch.

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.14 +7.5%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 217.64 +4.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 245.0 -6.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.93 +1.9%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 113.43 +12.0%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 311.78 +4.8%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.64 +1.3%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 60.18 +3.3%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.05 -1.73%

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.4% +10.0 basis points
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +11.0% -150.0 basis points
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +11.2% -20.0 basis points
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.16% +5.0 basis points: CPI YoY +8.13% -7.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39% +12.0 basis points

• TED Spread 36.0 -11.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 36.5 +4.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -69.75 -8.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 102.93 +1.8%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 366.0 +2.6% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 445.0 +10.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 145.25 -.04%
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 436.0 +6.8%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 334.05 +5.8%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 177.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 45.09 -.35%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .83 +4.0 basis points

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 4.1 unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,255.50 +1.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 211,500 +2.42%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.0% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 47.4 +.49%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.17% +20.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 214,300 -2.01%

• Weekly Retail Sales +8.3% -290.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 .4% -.2 percentage point
• Box Office Weekly Gross $80.6M -2.4%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.90/gallon +.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,818 -7.3%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 2,026.26 -13.0%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 47.5 +5.6%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 55.7 +8.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 261,483 +.01%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,396,663 +19.2%
• US Covid-19:  84 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.4 percentage point) of peak on 1/14/22(1,740) +7/100K people from prior report
  
• US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -84.8%(-.5 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -.3%

Worst Performing Style

•  Mid-Cap Growth -3.4%
  

Leading Sectors

• Foods +2.9%

• Restaurants +2.2%
  

• Insurance +1.7%

• Banks +1.4%

• Pharma +1.2%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Social Media -6.4%
  

• Gold & Silver -6.8%
  

• Alt Energy -6.9%

• Semis -7.3%
  

• Gambling -11.2%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (7)

• RETA, WAFD, AVEO, FGEN, BGNE, USB and WFC
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (63)

• OMCL, FND, DISH, ACM, MANH, ROL, BRZE, AMZN, OGN, AJG, AMD, HEI/A, SBNY, AZEK, CVNA, MRVL, MTCH, LITE, RJF, OVV, AMP, EVA, MS, KLAC, AMAT, NOW, QTWO, FAST, WSO, ALB, S, DKNG, NVDA, AFRM, NDAQ, LCID, BECN, APPS, DGII, STOK, BYND, LRCX, GNRC, PLUG, TSLA, ZS, BLDR, SIVB, SQ, MIDD, SCHW, RUN, DK, SPWR, COIN, NOVA, W, RIVN, HASI, TVTX and FRC
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Sharply Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Behind the Curve" Worries, Escalating China Hard Landing Concerns, Tech/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 32.5 +1.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 49.0 +2.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 149.31 +.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.6 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 52.5 +1.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 +2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .79 -10.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.36 +172.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 103.24 +1.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 419.31 -.33%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 445.0 +37.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 145.5 +1.3% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 436.0 -3.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 244.0 basis points +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 203.27 +4.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 334.05 +1.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.07 -.44%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 36.5 basis points +2.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 36.0 basis points +7.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -69.75 basis points +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  177.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 45.11-.7%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .83 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.30 -.25%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.72% +5.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -48.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 142.0 euros/megawatt-hour -7.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.40 +4.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.7 +.7 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.7 +.5 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 235.15 -.18:  Growth Rate +15.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 15.3 -.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.23 +3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.89% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.16% +5.0 basis points: CPI YoY +8.13% -7.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +6.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for December 14th FOMC meeting: 66.6%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for February 1st meeting: 53.7%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -84.8%(-.0 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -370 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -96 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 29.9% of Issues Advancing, 66.2% Declining
• 21 New 52-Week Highs, 52 New Lows
• 24.5%(+2.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.0 +1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 47.2 -1.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,069.80 -.51%
  
• Vix 32.9 +2.9%
• Total Put/Call .86 -2.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.85 +270.0% 

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• China Seen Halting Cash Drainage as Party Congress Kicks Off.  
• A Trader’s Guide to China’s Must-Watch Communist Party Congress.
  
• Japan Keeps Up Warnings, Declines to Say if Intervened in Yen.
• Singapore Tightens Monetary Policy Again Amid Inflation Concerns.
  
• Asia Stocks Set to Join Wild Ride Higher After CPI: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Heads for Weekly Loss as Hot Inflation Threatens Fed Action.
• Core US Inflation Rises to 40-Year High, Securing Big Fed Hike. 
• ‘Soft Landing’ Is Unlikely for US Economy, JPMorgan’s Dimon Says.  
• Here’s Where Inflation Is Biting American Consumers the Most.
• Private Bets Shield World’s Largest Investors from Market Mayhem.  
• Seven Senate Races Will Make or Break Biden’s Agenda.  
• Beyond Meat Cuts More Jobs as Plant-Based Meat Demand Cools.  
• Kroger Wants to Merge With Albertsons to Create US Grocery Giant.  
• United Airlines Nears ‘Triple-Digit’ Order for Widebody Jets.  
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

Wall Street Journal:

• Biden Scapegoats the Saudis for an Energy Crisis He Created. There’s an easy way for America to prevent another shock in world markets: Produce more oil.
• U.S. Core Inflation Hit New Four-Decade High Last Month.
• Inflation Expands Beyond Supply-Chain Struggles to Service Sector.
• Inflation and the Midterm Elections. The main legacy of the 117th Congress is a decline in living standards.
• The Regulators of Facebook, Google and Amazon Also Invest in the Companies’ Stocks.

Fox News:

• ACLU slaps Biden with lawsuit claiming he's endangering illegal immigrants.
• White House chief of staff boasts about inflation aftermath.

CNBC.com:

• U.S. extends Covid public health emergency even though Biden says pandemic is over.
• Here’s the inflation breakdown for September 2022 — in one chart.
• Over three-quarters of adults are making lifestyle changes to prepare for a potential recession. 
  

MarketWatch:         

• Mortgage rates surge to the highest level in 20 years. ‘The next several months will undoubtedly be important for the economy and the housing market.’.
  
• Fed’s benchmark interest rate may peak above 5% after Sept inflation data, some economists think.
  
• ‘Soft landing’ unlikely as Fed tries to get grip on inflation, says former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin.
  
• Hot U.S. inflation is boosting market expectations for a 5% or higher fed-funds rate in a matter of months.

Zero Hedge:

• Chevron CEO Blames Western Governments "Doubling-Down" On 'Climate' Policies For Global Energy Crisis.
• "This Is A F**king War": Jamie Dimon Slams Biden Begging Saudis For Oil, Says Investors "Don't Give A Shit" About ESG.
• Sorry Nobel Committee, Ben Bernanke's Interventions Were The Crisis.
• No Data To Recommend 'Preferential' Omicron Booster Jabs: WHO Panel.
• Twitter Lawyers Say Musk Under Federal Investigation Over Deal.
• "Severe Adverse Effects": Doctors Warn Pfizer's Paxlovid Can Interact With Common Medications.
• US stocks staged a strong comeback from the initial CPI-triggered pressure - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• "A Total Bust" - Trump Slams Jan. 6 "Unselect" Committee After Unanimous Vote To Subpoena Former President.
• 'A Dumpster Fire On Top Of A Hurricane': LA In Chaos As Racism, Corruption Scandals Mount.
• Gaslighting On Gas Prices.
• AOC Humiliated At Town Hall In Viral Clip: 'Why Can't You Be More Like Tulsi Gabbard?'
• What happened today?
• Stocks and Dollar whipsaw after hot CPI - Newsquawk US Market Wrap:.
• Soaring CPI & Extreme Pre-Positioning Sparks Massive Swings Across Markets.

Newsmax:     

• RNC's McDaniel: GOP Eyes Action on Google's Email Blocking.
• Chicago Alderman: 'Too Much Coddling of Criminals'.
• AG Jeff Landry: Admin Acts Like 'Communist Regime'.
• Mark Morgan: Mayorkas Should Resign or Be Impeached.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• It’s Not Just the mRNA Vaccines, New Study Shows Pfizer’s Paxlovid Pill Can Cause Deadly Blood Clots.
• The Curious Case Of the US Dept. of Defense Contract Signed During Obama Presidency, Konnech and Overseas Voters. 
• PayPal’s Effort To “Fine” People For Misinformation Was So Bad Even A Dem-Headed Government Agency Is Investigating.
• BREAKING: Social Security Announces Biggest Cost-Of-Living-Adjustment In 40 Years.
• Here We Go… Researchers Now Say Video Games Can Cause Heart Attacks in Children if They Get Too Excited.
• PayPal is Reportedly Bribing Users $15 in a Desperate Move to Stop Them from Closing their Accounts.
• “What This Signifies Is They’re Coming After Everyone Else Steve- I’m Just the First Domino to Fall” – Alex Jones Reacts to $965 Million Judgment in First Call with Steve Bannon (VIDEO).
• Is the U.S. Real Estate Industry Infiltrated and Being Used to Facilitate Chinese Espionage?
  

The Epoch Times:

• Rare Protest Against Xi Appears in Beijing Days Before CCP’s Congress.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 877,727 Reports(+5,890 from prior week) Through September 30th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +1.0% to +2.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 203.0 +4.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 112.25 +2.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.40 -.02%   
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 48.67 +2.0%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.21 +4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.9 -.45%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.95%.

• S&P 500 futures -.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.26%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (C)/1.45
• (JPM)/2.86
• (MS)/1.51
• (PNC)/3.70
• (USB)/1.16
• (UNH)/5.44
• (WFC)/1.09
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Aug.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.3% decline in Aug.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Aug.
• The Import Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -1.1% versus a -1.0% decline in Aug.
• The Import Price Index Ex Petrol MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.2% decline in Aug.
• The Import Price Index YoY for Sept. is estimated to rise +6.3% versus a +7.8% gain in Aug.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -1.0% versus a -1.6% decline in Aug.
• The Export Price Index YoY for Sept. is estimated to rise +9.4% versus a +10.8% gain in Aug.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Aug. is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.6% gain in Sept.
• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Oct. is estimated to rise to 58.8 versus 58.6 in Sept.
• Univ. of Mich. 1-Year Inflation Expectation Index for Aug. is estimated to rise +4.6% versus an expectation of a +4.7% increase in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Trade Data report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Sharply Higher into Afternoon on Peak Inflation Hopes, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 32.1 -4.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 4.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 47.6 -1.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.5 +1.0%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.6 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 51.9 +.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 91.0 -24.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -15.8%

• NYSE Arms .56 -27.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 101.02 -1.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 424.99 -.67%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 408.0 unch.
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 143.69 -2.9% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 450.5 +.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 239.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 205.17 +1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 325.67 +.49%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.19 -.03%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.25 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 28.75 basis points -2.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -70.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  176.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 45.58 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .82 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.46 +.37%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.67% +7.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -49.5 basis points (2s/10s) -10.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 153.9 euros/megawatt-hour -3.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.40 +8.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.0 +.5 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.2 -.3 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 235.33 -.24:  Growth Rate +15.3% -.1 percentage point, P/E 15.6 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.19 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.89% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.11% unch.: CPI YoY +8.20% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for December 14th FOMC meeting: 62.3%(+29.8 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for February 1st meeting: 53.5%(+23.8 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -84.8%(-.3 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +508 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +54 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +103 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/industrial/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts, then added some back
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long