Stocks Falling into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, China Hard-Landing Worries, Dollar Strength, Energy/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.3 +7.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.63%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.0 -4.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.67 -1.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.9 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.9 +.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 -2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.03 -10.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.46 +44.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.44 -1.64%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 396.78 +.55%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 268.0 -13.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.55 -.87% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 449.08 n/a
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 211.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.96 -1.36%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 234.87 -1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.10 +.63%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 43.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.0 basis points +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  146.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 120.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .87 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.44 -.47%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.35% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.95 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 70.8 euros/megawatt-hour -8.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.30 +1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 69.3 +1.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.0 +1.6 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.01 +.26:  Growth Rate +11.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 16.6 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.58 -14.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -62.25 basis points (2s/10s) -6.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.91% +25.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.52% unch.: CPI YoY +6.64% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 62.0%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 41.3%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 119 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 6.8%(-0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -74.2%(-.4 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -324 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +49 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +43 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my commodity/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -4.5% 2) Energy -3.2% 3) Healthcare Providers -2.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PLUG, CNC, TGTX, PLL, ETR, TAP, DRS, FUTU, LUV, BRKL, MOH, BTU, PINS, BSM, VSCO, LNG, NVCR, CEG, LTHM, LAC, RIVN, STR, TDW, PRTA, EQNR, PBT, CEIX, VRNA, SJT, NINE, ACDC, NFE, TSLA and PDSB
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RITM 2) ASHR 3) SWN 4) BLNK 5) D
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TSLA 2) EVA 3) LUNG 4) RIVN 5) AFRM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.3% 2) Education +.8% 3) Homebuilders +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• INST and IRDM
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DUST 2) RITM 3) BKLN 4) EGY 5) SRNE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SY 2) AUPH 3) CMMB 4) MULN 5) MLCO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 55.3% of Issues Advancing, 42.0% Declining
• 51 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
• 39.0%(+.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.0 -1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 54.1 -4.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,002.77 -.84%
  
• Vix 23.3 +7.4%
• Total Put/Call 1.08 -6.09%
• TRIN/Arms 1.31 +29.7% 

Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                     

• IMF Chief Georgieva Warns of ‘Tough Year’ for World Economy.
• China’s Economy Ends Year in Slump as Covid Infections Surge.   
• Australia House Prices Tumble Most Since 2008.  
• Brazil Markets Sink as Traders Mull Lula’s Plan to Beef Up State.
  
• Samsung Veteran Sounds Alarm on Korea Losing a Global Chip War.
• Singapore’s Economy Beats 2022 Forecast With Year-End Boost.
• Ukraine Latest: Strike Kills 63 Russian Troops in Occupied Town.
• Five Things to Watch in Asia Stocks After $5 Trillion Wipeout.
• Australian Stocks Flat as New Year Trading Resumes: Markets Wrap.    
• Oil Steadies as Demand Concerns Dominate at Start of the Year.
• US Faces Another Inflation Spike, Michael Burry Warns.  
• Man Arrested on Attempted Murder Charges in NYC Machete Attack.  
• Top Five Tips for Securing a Promotion During a Recession.

Wall Street Journal:

• Companies Offer Big Raises to Retain Workers.
• Unhappy New Tax Year for U.S. Business. The Democratic Congress’s parting gift to American employers is new taxes on investment that start in 2023.
• Tourism and Manufacturing Fight for the Future of Power in Europe.
• Let an FBI Agent Lead the FBI. The bureau’s culture has been corrupted by a leadership class with no field experience.
• China Health Official Raises Covid Alarm Ahead of Lunar New Year Holiday.
• GE Set to Spin Off Health Unit—Putting Focus Back on Power Division.
• Investors Brace for More Market Tumult as Rates Keep Rising.
• Best Dividend ETFs of 2022.

Fox News:

• Border state beefs up defense against illegal immigrants.
• Hunt for suspect intensifies after police chief is killed in the line of duty, second cop hurt.

CNBC:

• Retailers are bracing for tougher times and more frugal customers in 2023.
• More social media regulation is coming in 2023, members of Congress say.
  
• Tesla reports 1.31 million deliveries in 2022, growth of 40% over last year.
• The boldest bitcoin calls for 2023 are out — and a 1,400% rally or a 70% plunge may be on the cards.
• These states will raise their minimum wages. Chart shows where workers can expect higher pay.
• Here’s how much money it takes to be considered middle class in 20 major U.S. cities.

Zero Hedge:   

• Virgin Islands AG Fired Three Days After Suing JPMorgan Over Jeffrey Epstein.
• Huge Death Toll After US-Supplied Himars Leveled Russian Barracks In Donetsk, Possibly Hundreds Killed.
• Fauci Fibbed On The Day Everything Changed. 
• Mark McCloskey Won’t Have Guns Or Money Returned, Despite Pardon, Missouri Judge Rules.
• US Inflation: How Much Have Prices Increased In 2022?
• North Carolina Lawmakers Urge Governor To Follow Other States In Banning TikTok.
• Analysts Predict 1 Million Bpd Drop in Russian Crude Output.
• 2023 Starts Off With A Bang: Winklevoss Slams Barry Silbert's Genesis, Accuses Of Commingling Funds.
• David Stockman On The Parallels Between The COVID Hysteria And The Salem Witch Trials.
• 2023 Outlook: Pain.
• The Final "Tale Of The Tape": The 13 Most Striking Market Facts Of 2022.
• Migrant-Fueled New Year Mayhem Turns Berlin Into Warzone.
•  Quake Prediction Says "Signal Just Hit," Warns Of Potential Big Earthquake From San Francisco To LA.
• You Don't Have To Be A Conspiracy Theorist To Be Worried About The World Economic Forum.
• Wait A Second! Merkel Did What?.
• Speakership In Major Doubt, McCarthy Caves On Key GOP Rebel Demand.
• After 100,000 Migrants Arrive In 2022, Italy Set To Take Action Against NGO Ferry Boats.
• How China Changed Its Zero-COVID Policy To A 'Zero Non-COVID' Policy.

MarketWatch.com:          

• Tesla delivery-target miss shows ‘demand cracks clearly happening’ that mean ‘numbers could materially reset’ for coming years, analysts write.
  
• Gemini’s Cameron Winklevoss accuses crypto exec Barry Silbert of ‘bad faith’ stalling over frozen funds.  
• These 20 energy stocks are worth a look if you think oil prices will soar in 2023.

NewsMax:

• House GOP Details 3 Key Probes Ramping Up in the Coming Term.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

• Attorney: Biden’s DOJ Is Hiding Hundreds of Hunter Biden and James Biden’s Records on China Gifts.
• Pandemic of the Vaccinated: Wall Street Journal Provides Troubling Data Suggesting COVID Vaccines ‘May be’ Causing COVID Variants to Evolve.
• US Virgin Islands Attorney General Fired After Suing JP Morgan Over Jeffrey Epstein Sex Trafficking Scandal. 
• WATCH: “60 Minutes” Rings in the New Year with Doomsday Message From Anti-Human Eugenicist Paul Ehrlich: “Humanity is Not Sustainable”.
• TREASON: Gen. Mark Milley Hid Nuke Codes from Trump While Holding Secret Calls with China – Then Armed Taliban with $80 Billion in US Weapons.
• BREAKING: Rassmussen Poll Shows that 1-in-4 Americans Believe They Know Someone Who Died from COVID Vaccine.
• Dr. Zeke Emanuel on MSNBC: Covid Vaccines Don’t Work Against New Variants; Only Thing That Reliably Works Are “Really High Quality Masks” (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: Attorney for Ray Epps Was FBI Agent For 9 Years.
• GOP House Member Assures FOX News Host True Conservative Will be Elected Speaker Over Kevin McCarthy.
• BIG: New Book By Ex-Capitol Police Chief Confirms GOP’s Report On Pelosi’s Culpability for Jan. 6, Reveals FBI, DHS, And His Own Agency KNEW FOR WEEKS About Planned Attack.
• At What Point Do We Call Out the RINOs and Idiots for Not Seeing the Massive Democrat Voter Fraud?
• JUST IN: Kari Lake Files Petition to Transfer Historic Election Challenge Directly to Arizona Supreme Court – FILING INCLUDED.
• BIG BROTHER WILL WATCH YOU DRIVE: Disgusting Infrastructure Bill Installs KILL SWITCHES in All New Vehicles, Turns America into a POLICE STATE.

The Epoch Times:

• Incoming GOP China Committee Chair Calls TikTok ‘Digital Fentanyl’.

Twitter:

• @VigilantFox - Stage 4 Cancers Taking Off Like Wildfire: "We're Going to See a Consistent Two to Threefold Increase" Dr. Ryan Cole: "Don't get another shot because it is causing that immune suppression that's allowing those cancer mechanisms." (video)
• @C19VaxInjured - Vaccine Injured Twitter Spaces event on Jan 6 at 8:00pmET. Join vaccine injured as we fight for acknowledgement and help.
• @DC_Draino - Remember when Biden got the Ukrainian prosecutor fired for investigating Hunter/Burisma? Well on Dec. 27 the USVI AG filed a lawsuit against JPMorgan for helping Jeffrey Epstein. Biden flew to USVI & the AG was fired days later. What a coincidence!
• @KariLakeWarRoom - This is one of the darkest moments in the history of Arizona. An illegitimate 'Governor' laughing in the face of our constitution. But it's always darkest before the dawn. We will expose this fraud for the world to see. Justice is coming.
  @katiehobbs won't be laughing then. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 915,411 Reports(+3,337 from prior week) Through December 23rd, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.75 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 73.75 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 116.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.43%
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.3 -.15%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.43 -1.0 basis point. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.5 -.18%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.96%.
• S&P 500 futures +.08%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• (SGH)/.57
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Nov. is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.3% decline in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Manufacturing PMI report and the Citi Communications/Media/Entertainment Conference could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Japan Says Chinese Military Drone Spotted Near Island of Okinawa.
• Yen Starts Year on Front Foot as Traders Eye Dollar Cliff Edge.  
• European Bond Markets Were Roiled This Year In Ways Few Imagined.
  
• Ukraine Latest: Russia Launches Drone Attacks on New Year’s Day.
  
• US Jobs Report Likely to Show Still-Tight Labor Market.  
• New Year Stand-Offs and Price Dips Predicted for Housing Market in 2023.

 Wall Street Journal: 

• EV Shift Triggers Auto-Factory Building Boom.
• U.S. Offshore-Wind Plans Face Threat From Rising Costs.
• The Year Big Tech Stocks Fell From Glory.
• Rookie Traders Are Calling It Quits, to Their Families’ Relief.
• Are Vaccines Fueling New Covid Variants? The virus appears to be evolving in ways that evade immunity.
• McCarthy’s Speaker Bid Faces Final Hurdle.

Fox News:

• WATCH:Americans grade Biden's performance halfway through term.

CNBC:

• More social media regulation is coming in 2023, members of Congress say.
• Nasdaq closes out its first four-quarter slump since dot-com crash.
• North Korea’s Kim orders ‘exponential’ expansion of nuke arsenal.

Zero Hedge:

• Top 10 Conspiracy Theories That Will Be Validated In 2023.
• 'Radicalized' Times Square Attacker Was On FBI Watchlist.
• Tesla Tax Loss And Positive Catalysts.
• America's Top New Year's Resolutions For 2023.
• In War For Control Of Humanity, Thoughts And Emotions Are The Battlefield: Dr. Robert Malone.
• 15 Million Americans Set To Lose Medical Coverage As Public Health Emergency Ends.
• Excerpts For The Democrat-To-English Dictionary: Updated For 2023.
• 2023: You Wanted Endless Stimulus, You Got Stagflation.
• Swiss National Referendum Will Limit Population To 10 Million Through Strict Immigration Control, To Save Environment.
• 2022's Ten Most 'Conspiratorial' Events.

NewsMax:

• Border, Inflation, Energy Dominate Issues for Republicans in New Year: AP-NORC Poll.
• Norquist: Corporate Taxes Will Hurt Americans in 2023.
• Rep. Gimenez: 'Woke' Blue State Policies, More Crime.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BIDEN ECONOMY: Biden Wiped Out $10 Trillion of Americans’ Wealth – 2022 Was Worst Stock-Bond-Equity Year Since 1871. 
• In Your Face: McConnell to Host Biden at Infrastructure Bill Celebration in Kentucky the Day After GOP Takes House Majority.
• Democrats to Increase Taxes in 2023 During Highest Inflation in 40 Years and Worst Stock-Bond-Equity Losses Since 1871.
• Large Trucks and Buses Made Before 2010 Now Banned From California Roadways
• California is Now a ‘Sanctuary State’ For Transgender Children.
• BREAKING: Suspect Behind NYPD New Year’s Eve Attack Was on FBI Radar – Trevor Bickford a Recent Convert to Islam.
• Archbishop Vigano Calls on Faithful to Fast for Three Days for Jan 6 Political Prisoners – On January 3rd, 4th and 5th.
• Socialist-Marxist Leadership Sweeps Across South America as 2023 Begins – With the Help of the Pro-China Biden Regime. 
• Josh Hawley Slams Mitch McConnell For Poor Republican Outcome in 2022 Midterms.
  

The Epoch Times:

• ‘Mind Dominance’: The CCP’s Disinformation War on US Social Media.

Twitter:

• @dockaurG - Stanford Prof Ioannidis et al Covid pre-vaccination Infection Fatality Rate paper is now peer-reviewed & published. Conclusions all same. Catastrophic societal harms imposed d/t irrational fear & mass hysteria of a virus with IFR lower than influenza.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 912,074 Reports(+6,021 from prior week) Through December 16th, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).