Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.0% 2) Computer Services -1.9% 3) Alt Energy -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RETA, LHCG, FLEX, RAPT, ARHS, VRT, AZPN, ATAT, KMPR, NVS, FCX, NVRO, CHK, RJF, WOLF, ARRY, ETD, U, LUV, XRX, IBM, SNX, BOWL, CEIX, CRNX, MKC, DEO, CLFD, PLUG, MAG, HOLO, VIRT, SHW, BRKL, BFH, HZO, FNA and CUBI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TRIP 2) EWC 3) DISH 4) KNX 5) IBB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CUBI 2) LC 3) PLXS 4) IBM 5) SHW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +2.9% 2) Energy +1.9% 3) Gambling +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• XM, BOOT, TSLA, DV, BHLB, HXL, URI, WBS, LVS, EXTR, LEVI, NUE, MUR, TSCO and AXTA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LC 2) SABR 3) HPE 4) ACI 5) NOW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) XM 2) CVX 3) CACI 4) STX 5) LYTS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 58.0% of Issues Advancing, 38.4% Declining
• 84 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 54.3%(-.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.0 +4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.6 +3.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,471.9 +.47%
  
• Vix 19.1 +.1%
• Total Put/Call .85 -13.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.27 +64.9%
  

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:               

• UK Business Confidence Drops to Lowest Since Financial Crisis. 
• Asia Trading to Ramp Up Amid Upbeat Sentiment: Markets Wrap
• Oil Edges Higher on Outlook for Chinese Demand and Weaker Dollar.  
• Record Heating Oil Costs Jump in New York Ahead of Winter Storm.   
• Fossil Fuel Profits Roar Back, Producing 10% of S&P 500 Earnings.
• Here's a List of Tech Layoffs So Far in 2023.  
• Debt-Limit Showdown Splits Credit Raters on US Downgrade Trigger.
  
• Opinion: As Tech Layoffs Mount, Employer-Employee Relations Grow Toxic.
• Lam Research to Cut 7% of Workforce After Weak Forecast.
• NYSE Mayhem Traced to a Staffer Who Left a Backup System Running.  
• ‘Largest Con in Corporate History?’ Short Seller Behind Hindenburg Is Betting On It.  
• Tesla Seeks Rapid Output Boost as Profit Beats Estimates. 
• US Filed Microsoft-Activision Suit to Head Off EU Settlement.
• Skinny Jeans Will Never Die, Levi’s CEO Says. 
• Light Street Fell 54% Last Year, Rivaling Tiger Global’s Plunge.

Wall Street Journal:

• Meta Pays BuzzFeed Millions to Generate Creator Content.
• In China, Young Women Become Accidental Symbols of Defiance.
• U.S., Europe Tussle Over Frenzy of Clean-Energy Subsidies.
• SEC Floats Ban on Wall Street Activities Linked to 2008 Crisis.

Fox News:

• Dem embroiled in China spy scandal seethes with cryptic warning after getting booted from committee.
• Environmentalists spark civil war over whether wind turbines are killing whales.

CNBC.com:

• U.S. will send Abrams tanks to Ukraine ahead of expected Russian offensive.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Tesla, Chevron, ServiceNow, Levi Strauss, IBM and more.
• IBM tops revenue estimates, says it will cut 3,900 jobs.
• Snapchat’s role in fentanyl crisis probed during House roundtable: ‘It’s a Snap-specific problem’.

MarketWatch:                

• Kimberly-Clark CEO says ‘mind-blowing’ news in the ‘poop’ category is coming in the second half.
  
• Here’s more bad news if you’ve been laid off and you’re looking for work.
  
• Inflation has sent drinkers toward cheaper beer or fancier booze.

Zero Hedge:

• Arctic Air Intrusions Coming To Lower 48 Next Week.
• Biden 'Dietary Expert' Claims Willpower Doesn't Exist And Obesity Is A 'Brain Disease'.
• "I Believe He Was Murdered": Ghislane Maxwell On Jeffrey Epstein's Death. 
• Study Finds US Would Run Out Of Long-Range Munitions In 1 Week In China Hot War.
• 20 Red States Sue Biden Admin Over Migrant Parole Program.
• Kremlin Reacts To Doomsday Clock Moving Closer To Midnight.
• House Committee Chair Calls For Probe Into '$60 Billion' In Fake COVID-19 Unemployment Claims.  
• Wind Turbines Are Burning, Collapsing in Green Energy Setback.
• Seattle Medical Examiner Running Out Of Space To Store Bodies Due To Fentanyl Overdoses: Official.
• Sell lows, chase highs pain is back.
• US stocks pared losses and finished flat with the rebound helped after the BoC signalled the end of rate hikes - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• 2023: Fourth Turning Meets Mass Formation Psychosis, Part 2.
• Chevron Surges After Unveiling $75 Billion Buyback Plan "While War Is Raging".
• Tesla Beats On Top And Bottom Line As Margins Slump.
• Newsquawk US Market Wrap: Stocks and bonds recover as BoC makes final hike.
• Wash-Out, Rinse Weak-Hands, Repeat The Squeeze: Gold Rips As Equity Traders Buy The F**king Dip.

Newsmax:  

• Texas AG Paxton: Biden Immigration Parole Illegal.
• Rep. Meuser: GOP Aims to Correct Dems' 'Excessive Debts'.
  
• Sen. Tom Cotton, Top Officials Slam DirecTV for Dropping NEWSMAX.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• RAY EPPS EXCLUSIVE!! Never-Before-Seen Leaked VIDEO of RAY EPPS Breach! Is the Government Doctoring Video to COVER FOR EPPS & Incriminate the Proud Boys at their Show Trial? THIS IS PART OF THE 14,000 Hours the Government Is Hiding! MUST SEE!!
• NEW: “Readers Added Context They Thought People Might Want To Know” – Twitter Continues To Censor Kari Lake’s Arizona Election Lawsuit And The Gateway Pundit Reporting – Is Maricopa County Involved?
• Meta Will Restore President Trump’s Facebook and Instagram Accounts After 2 Years – Spokesman Clegg Lies and Says Facebook Believes in Open Debate.
• The National Archives Lied – Claimed as Recently as September that It Had All Obama Records Ignoring Records Biden Stole.
• Josh Hawley Introduces PELOSI Act To Ban Congressional Members And Their Spouses From Trading Stocks.
• Now Sheboygan, Wisconsin Parents Uncover Cartoon Porn in Their School Library.
• UK Government to End COVID Booster Shots for Healthy People Under 50.
• German FM Says the Quiet Part: “We Are Fighting a War with Russia”.
• BREAKING: Board of Supervisors in Shasta County, California Votes to Terminate Its Contract with Dominion Voting Systems and End its Use in Elections.
• Pete Buttigieg: “Every Transportation Decision We Make is a Climate Decision” (VIDEO). 
• Gee, What Changed? 300,000 NON-Covid Excess Deaths in US Since 2020.

The Epoch Times:

• China Sends Aircraft, Vessels Near Taiwan After President Tsai Writes to the Pope.

Twitter: 

• @AlertChannel - Why doesn't India have mRNA vaccinations? Why did Pfizer and Moderna miss out on the most lucrative market? 2 reasons:  India insists on vaccination damage liability and own studies before mass vaccination of its population.. (video)
• @ElectionWiz - TUCKER: Emails show Hunter Biden shared classified documents with Ukrainian business partner. (video) 
• @Newsfilter2 - Australian Olympic bobsledder, Simon Dunn has #DiedSuddendly at the age of 35. As usual, no cause of death was given but Dunn was healthy as a horse. 
• @DrAseemMalhotra - Do mRNA vaccines harms outweigh the benefits? ‘..the harms (for most) massively outweigh the benefits. It was not even close! And that’s based on the highest quality level of data we will ever have.’ via @spectator.
• @backtolife_2023 - Biden's new chief of staff curiously saw his wealth explode as Covid czar. (video)
• @TPostMillennial - Protestors pulled no punches while voicing their displeasure as Trudeau and other Liberal ministers arrived in Hamilton, Ontario, for a cabinet retreat.
• @RealMattCouch - BREAKING: HOLY HELL. Project Veritas Undercover Video shows Pfizer Director of Research and Development saying Pfizer was considering “Mutating” Covid-19 Virus for New Vaccine opportunities… (video) 
• @ColumbiaBugle - Tucker Carlson: "This week, we've called virtually every person involved in the story surrounding Jeffrey Epstein's death, and with very few exceptions none of them would speak to us." (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 922,020 Reports(+3,512 from prior week) Through January 6th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.0 -1.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 51.25 -1.0 basis point. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 124.3 USD/Metric Tonne -%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.7 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  56.7 +.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .23 -4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 +.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.48%.

• S&P 500 futures +.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ALK)/.93
• (AAL)/1.07
• (ADM)/1.64
• (BX)/.95
• (CMCSA)/.68
• (DOW)/.57
• (JBLU)/.20
• (MA)/2.58
• (MKC)/.87
• (MUR)/1.15
• (NOC)/6.57
• (NUE)/4.33
• (OSK)/1.73
• (ROK)/1.87
• (SAP)/1.34
• (SHW)/1.85
• (LUV)/-.09
• (STM)/1.10
• (TROW)/1.71
• (TSCO)/2.35
• (VLO)/7.19
  

After the Close:

• (FICO)/4.18
• (INTC)/.20
• (KLAC)/7.09
• (KNX)/1.11
• (LHX)/3.28
• (OLN)/1.41
• (RHI)/1.36
• (V)/2.01
• (WY)/.18
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Dec.
• 4Q Advance GDP Annualized QoQ is estimated to rise +2.6% versus +3.2% gain in 3Q.
• 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +2.8% versus a +2.3% gain in 3Q.
• 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +3.2% versus a +4.4% gain in 2Q.
• 4Q Core PCE QoQ is estimated to rise +3.9% versus a +4.7% gain in 2Q.
• Advance Goods Trade Balance for Dec. is estimated at -$88.1B versus -83.3B in Nov.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.0% gain in Nov.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Nov.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 205K versus 190K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1658K versus 1647K prior.
• Durable Goods Orders for Dec. is estimated to rise +2.5% versus a -2.1% decline in Nov.
• Durables Ex Transports for Dec. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.1% gain in Nov.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Dec. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.1% gain in Nov.
  

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Dec. is estimated to fall to 611K versus 640K in Nov.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for Jan. is estimated to rise to -7 versus -9 in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Germany CPI report, FDA Meeting on Covid Boosters, 7Y T-Note auction and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and mining shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Road & Rail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.3 +.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.26%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.2 -.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.6 -.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.3 -1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.8 +2.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 +8.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .96 -5.9%

• NYSE Arms .80 -42.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.07 +.59%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 363.08 +1.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 326.0 +16.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.6 +1.7% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 362.5 -.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 179.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.8 -1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 228.7 +.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.01 +.25%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.5 basis points +4.75 basis points
  

• TED Spread 16.25 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  134.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 108.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .72 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.73 +.17%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.65% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 124.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 56.7 euros/megawatt-hour -2.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -15.7 -.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 87.7 -2.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.9 -.6 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.92 -.30:  Growth Rate +10.4% -.2 percentage point, P/E 17.6 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .26 +1.0 basis point
  
• Yield Curve -68.75 basis points (2s/10s) +6.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.53% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.45% unch.: CPI YoY +6.39% +5.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 82.5%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 59.3%(+4.5 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 105 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.2%(-.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -79.8%(+.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +15 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +263 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +93 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my medical/tech/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail -2.0% 2) Networking -1.4% 3) Alt Energy -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MDB, QNST, SNOW, CHGG, TRMD, GD, PAYX, NET, HOLO, TECK, NEP, RRC, CPNG, ZNTL, BILL, TNP, ASH, IBN, NSC, ISRG, CNI, EVER, Z, CEIX, BPOP, HDB, RNST, AFRM, FLNC, CRGY, DDOG, ADP, GLOB, NDAQ, FCF, MPW, VBTX, SAVA, NEE, BTAI, RUN, NOVA, TRMK and EXTR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CSX 2) TSCO 3) GLW 4) NEE 5) ISRG
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FREY 2) TRMK 3) RUN 4) GNRC 5) SI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume