Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• New US Spy Satellites to Track Chinese, Russian Threats in Orbit.
• ByteDance Accused of Helping China Track Hong Kong Activists.
• RBI May Pause Again With Markets Watching for Shift in Stance.
• RBA Alert to Risk Inflation Stays Too High, Too Long, Lowe Says.
• PGA Tour Bows to Saudi Rival in Stunning Combination With LIV Golf.
• Asian Equities Rise With Positive Signs for China: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Steadies as Concerns Over Demand Overshadow Saudi Output Cut.
• Coinbase Is Facing a ‘Life or Death’ Battle With the SEC.
• Coinbase Crackdown Widens as US States Push to Halt Staking Product.
• Apollo CEO Marc Rowan Sees ‘Non-Recession Recession’ as Rate Hikes Bite.
• California Puts a Price on Slavery’s Legacy and Draws a Blueprint for Reparations.
• Gen Z Is Thinking of Retirement Too Early and All Wrong.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

Zero Hedge:

• Tucker's Back! In Triumphant Return, Demolishes Ukraine Dam Propaganda, Massacres MSM For Ignoring UFO 'Bombshell Of The Millennium'
• Like, Totally Orwellian: Nearly A Third Of GenZ Favors 'Government Surveillance Cameras In Every Household'
• FBI Conduct Sparks Protest At Federal Building In Detroit.
• Media Smears Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. For "Conspiracy Theories" Even As Many Come True.
• Blinken Plans To Visit China In Coming Weeks, Follows "Candid" Dialogue.
• Journalists Are Asking Ukrainian Soldiers To Hide Their Nazi Patches, NYT Admits.
• Santa Monica Residents Push Back Against Outdoor Needle Distribution Site For Homeless.
• US Knew Ukraine Planned To Blow Up Nord Stream Pipeline 3 Months Before It Happened: WaPo.
• What Are Older Office Towers Worth In The New Era? Second San Francisco Office Tower Sells For 70% Off Original Listing Price.
• S&P 500 printed its highest close YTD, while the R2K rallied on regional bank strength - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• DeSantis Claims On Chicago Kid Shootings: Hyperbole Or Fact?
• Netanyahu Threatens Iran, Slams IAEA Amid Major War Drills.
• SPX closes at 2023 in light trade with RUT and DXY firmer on US growth upgrades - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• WTI Drops Below Pre-Saudi-Cut Levels After API Signals Big Product Builds.
• The Cloward-Piven Strategy.
• Massive Short Squeeze Sends Small Caps Soaring; Bitcoin Bounces Back Bigly.

Wall Street Journal:

• Air-Quality Levels Worsen in U.S. Due to Canadian Wildfires.
• SEC Sues Coinbase in Latest Move Against Crypto.
• Sequoia to Separate Its China Business.
• Destruction of Ukraine Dam Floods Front Line, Cuts Counteroffensive Options.
• A New CEO Says Employees Can’t Work Remotely After All, and They Revolt.

CNBC.com:

• PGA Tour agrees to merge with Saudi-backed rival LIV Golf.
• West Coast port labor issues continue as some Los Angeles-bound rail shipments get paused.
• SEC asks for emergency order to freeze Binance US assets anywhere in the world.
• The destruction of a major Ukrainian dam could have grave consequences. Here’s what we know so far.

MarketWatch:

• 10 reasons I won’t be buying Apple’s $3,500 Vision Pro VR headset
• Apple’s Vision Pro is ‘frightening’ in the best way—but many questions remain
• Bed Bath & Beyond’s final days bring chaos, confusion and rude customers: ‘It’s all a mess’
• Boeing stock drops on warning about defect on 787 Dreamliner planes.
• Tesla Model 3s now qualify for $7,500 in federal tax credits.

Newsmax:

• House Conservatives Block GOP Bills, Vent Debt-Limit Frustration.
• Dr. Atlas: I 'Was 100 Percent Correct'.
• Rep. Norman: WH Must Bring WHO Treaty to Congress.

Fox News:

• Ukrainian dam destruction sends prices of crucial products soaring.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• House Conservatives Launch “Extraordinary Rebellion” Against Kevin McCarthy on House Floor Over Debt Deal Anger and Derail Key Leadership Priority – Leadership Threatened to Sink GOP Debt Ceiling Opponent’s Bill to Stop Biden Gun Ban.
• EPIC! Laura Loomer Confronts Disgraced Former FBI Director James Comey – And He Flees the Stage! -VIDEO.
• NPR Publishes Hit Piece on Gateway Pundit Loaded with Personal Smears But Won’t Refute Our Reporting – So Today We Are Releasing New Video Evidence and Information on the ERIC System.
• Tucker Carlson Releases Episode 1 of His ‘Tucker on Twitter’ Program – On the Explosion of the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine that Was Blown Up Today (VIDEO).
•   NEW: MORE EVIDENCE Shows Voting Machines Were Secretly Reprogrammed and Fraudulently Certified in Maricopa County, AZ – Kari Lake Responds to This Latest Finding.
•   “Gonna Be Historic” – Rep. Anna Paulina Luna Explains How the House Plans to Punish Rep. Adam Schiff for Spreading the Russia Collusion Hoax and that the Vote Will Happen Tomorrow (VIDEO).
•   IT WAS ALL A LIE: Here are Six Videos that Show Capitol Police Moving Barricades, Opening Sets of Locked Doors, Waving in Trump Supporters on January 6th.
• 3 in 10 Young Americans and Mostly Democrats Support Government Cameras Installed in American Households, Survey Says.

 The Epoch Times:

• China, Iran, and Russia ‘Working Closely Together’ to Undermine US: Experts.
• China’s Defense Minister Threatens to Attack ‘Without Hesitation’ Any Nation Attempting to Split It From Taiwan.
• US Ignorant of Investment Fund Portfolio in China: Expert.

Twitter: 

• @AGHuff - This is how #Michigan is being sold out to China. 
• @intheMatrixxx - China's new education campaign is absolutely terrifying, and for some reason, no one is talking about it. (video)
• @acemaxx - The implication is that #risks associated with #concentration, lack of #diversification and #valuation are growing, and market structure is increasingly #fragile, chart Lisa Shalett @MorganStanley.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 963,283 Reports(+1,415 from prior week) Through May 26th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.0 -1.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 61.25 -.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.97%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.9 -.57%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 60.2 +.42%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .06 -3.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.5 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.09%.

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by tech and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Close on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Optimism, China Stimulus Hopes, Short-Covering, Financial/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.2 -3.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .69%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.9 +1.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 156.8 -.11%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.54 -.63%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.9 -2.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 -2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -9.6%

• NYSE Arms .75 -24.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.4 -.65%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 388.68 -1.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 398.0 -19.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.5 -1.0% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 301.2 -1.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 178.0 basis points +2.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.2 -.24%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 221.9 -1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.0 -.46%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 17.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 25.0 basis points +10.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.5 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 169.0 -8.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 726.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 90.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.2 -.23%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.25% -6.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 24.9 euros/megawatt-hour  -12.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.0 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -88.1 -5.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.8 -1.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) -3.5% -.7 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.24 +.17:  Growth Rate +3.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.6 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% +2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 20663 +4.73: Growth Rate +35.8% +3.1 percentage points, P/E 36.2 -.7
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .09 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.39 +12.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -82.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.96% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.71% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 52.7%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 48.5%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +250 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +16 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +52 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my medical/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +2.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.7 +1.1
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 74.4% of Issues Advancing, 23.0% Declining
• 94 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 48.8%(+8.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.0 +1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 59.5 +.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,302.4 -.46%
• 1-Day Vix 9.0 -24.5%
  
• Vix 9.8 -7.3% 
  
• Total Put/Call .84 -10.6%
• TRIN/Arms .79 -20.20%
  

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Global Carbon Markets Face Upheaval as Nations Remake the Rules.
• China Edging Out Russia as Sanctions Redraw Trade for Kazakhstan.
• Asian Stocks Set for Mixed Open as US Rally Pauses: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Dips as Optimism Over Saudi-Led Production Cut Fades Fast.
• Inside the SEC’s Allegations Against Binance and CZ.
• Apple Headset Looks Sleek in Person But Battery Pack Stands Out.
• Intel to Raise About $1.5 Billion in Sale of Part of Mobileye.
• FBI Director to Face Contempt of Congress Hearing in Escalating Biden Probe.
• Return of Student Loan Payments Will Stretch Household Budgets.
• Biden Debt-Bill Signing Set to Unleash Tsunami of US Debt Sales.
• From Goldman to JPMorgan, Deals Have Dried Up. 
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• A $1.5 Trillion Backstop for Homebuyers Props Up Banks Instead.

Zero Hedge:

• "We Are Not Alone": US Has Retrieved Craft Of 'Non-Human Origin' Says Whistleblower From Govt. Task Force On UFOs
• Here Are Goldman's Top Takeaways From Its Semiconductor Conference As Tech Execs Focused On AI
• When Your Own Government Confirms It Paid Censors To Silence You...
• El Niño Fears Surge Among CEOs As Economy In Crosshairs Of Extreme Weather.
• 800 Years Of History In One Paragraph.
• Park Hotels Makes "Difficult" Decision To Stop Paying San Fran CMBS Loan, Citing "Concerns Over Street Conditions".
• The US Desperately Needs A Political Brain Transplant.
• US stocks were mostly lower after disappointing data and Apple's WWDC - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• The Strange Pandemic Of 'White' Disparagement.
• US Refuses To Release Over 8,000 Hours Of Jan. 6 Security Footage: Court Filing.
• Why Is Corporate America Destroying Itself?
• Overbought tech needs a pause.
• AAPL and market reverses strength after VR headset announcement; Dollar and yields lower on surprise ISM fall - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• 15 Reasons Why Mass Media Employees Act Like Propagandists.
• Junk Firms Face Steepest Debt Costs In Decade As Economic Reckoning Arrives.
• GOP Donor's Family Killed In Private Jet Crash After Military Scrambled F16s.
• Stocks Sink As 'Appulus' Fails To Impress; Gold Up, Crypto Down, Oil Flat.

Wall Street Journal:

• ‘Organized Retail Crime Is Definitely a Thing’. Shop clerks should not have to develop elite crime-fighting skills. 
• Big Banks Could Face 20% Rise in Capital Requirements.
• Investor Bets on Fed Rate Cuts Fade.
• Former ByteDance Executive Claims Chinese Communist Party Accessed TikTok’s Hong Kong User Data.
• Customer Ratings Have Become Meaningless. ‘People Hand Out 5 Stars Like It’s Candy.’5 min read.
• Cancer Doctors Rethink Aggressive Treatments.
• Tech Downturn Hits West Coast Economies.

CNBC.com:

• Japan’s yen is weakening again, prompting talk of another intervention worth billions.
• Apple announces first major product since 2014: Vision Pro for $3,499.
• SEC sues Binance and CEO Changpeng Zhao for U.S. securities violations.
• Intel drops as Apple moves to its own silicon on all computers.

MarketWatch:

• The $3,499 Vision Pro headset, iOS 17, and everything else Apple just announced at WWDC
• Bitcoin drops after SEC files 13 charges against Binance, founder Changpeng Zhao
• The six wildest allegations the SEC is making against Binance
• Younger workers know being remote has drawbacks, but they don’t care. Here’s why.

Newsmax:

• DeSantis Campaign Ad Hits Trump for Not Firing Fauci.
• Neil Chatterjee: Biden Hindering Energy-Independence.

Fox News:

• Musk says Target can expect shareholder lawsuits soon as trouble mounts for retailer.
• College hit with complaint alleging program discriminated against White males.
• Comer to hold FBI Director in contempt of Congress after viewing Biden document.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• CAN’T MAKE THIS UP: The Ladies of The View Send in White Crew Member to Shut Down Tim Scott During their Discussion on Race (VIDEO).
• Comer: FBI Confirmed the Document Alleging Biden Engaged in $5 Million Bribery Scheme is From Highly Credible Informant.
• HUGE: Postal Service Releases Final Report – Contract Driver Jesse Morgan Vindicated – Report CONFIRMS He Hauled Trailer of Ballots from NY to PA in Late October 2020
• Robert Kiyosaki On “The Three Times Crash” and Why His Generation With 401Ks Could Be Wiped Out.
• Videos: Elementary School Turned into LGBTQI+ Pride Indoctrination Camp.
• University of Cincinnati Student Claims She Received a Zero on a Class Project for Using Term ‘Biological Women’.
• Globalist World Health Organization Will Take Up EU System behind Digital Vaccine Passports to “Facilitate Global Mobility” and “Better Protect Citizens”.
• REVEALED: Woke Target Funding Anti-White, Marxist Organization that Wants to Destroy America’s Military and Give Away Mount Rushmore and Other Public Lands to “Truly Dismantle White Supremacy”.
• Tempe Holds First Annual All Ages Drag Show – LGBTQ Rapper Sings About Gay/Anal Sex and Converting Straight Men Gay – Drew Hernandez Video.
• TRAGIC: Chinese Communist Regime Arrests Hong Kongers for Commemorating Tiananmen Square on Anniversary.
• Iconic Children’s Show Shoving ‘Pride Month’ Down Kids’ Throats: ‘Happy Pride! Elmo Loves You’.

The Epoch Times:

• White House Decries Chinese Military’s ‘Growing Aggressiveness’.
• US Releases Video Showing Close-Call in Taiwan Strait With Chinese Destroyer.
• ‘A Symbol of Defiance’: Memory of Tiananmen Square Massacre Kept Alive by Advocates.

Twitter: 

• @JamesMelville - New evidence published by three climate scientists from the University of Leeds states that in 11 years to 2019, the ice shelves around Antarctica grew in overall size, with overall shelf size increasing by 5,305 km2. Follow the science.
• @zerohedge - Here's a better one: since the covid crash, all new jobs - over 2 million - have gone to foreign-born workers. And in May, native-born workers tumbled again, by 369K, while foreign-born jumped 297K to an all time high. (graph)
• @unusual_whales - On some streets in San Francisco, almost every other retail store is vacant, from Reddit: (video)
• @RobertKennedyJr - Farmland buying spree by Wall Street's mammoth hedge funds and China are turning America’s and the globe's agricultural landscapes into corporate fiefdoms and farmers into serfs.
• @OwlAmuseYou - Disney. (video)
• @songpinganq - Police robots  with facial recognition cameras roaming in China's streets. Once they detect people with low social credit score, immediately an alarm sends to authority. People with low social credit score are barred from entering high-end hotels, night clubs, golf courses. (video)
• @GregCrennan - The Senate has passed the debt limit bill. I wonder if prices of everyday goods will be higher in the future I wonder…… (graph)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 963,283 Reports(+1,415 from prior week) Through May 26th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.25 +.5 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 62.0 +1.25 basis points
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.72%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.3 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.7 +.7%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.02 -14.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.4 +.22%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.16%.

• S&P 500 futures -.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by tech and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Global Growth Worries, Global Bank Regulation Concerns, Regional Bank/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.9 +1.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .55%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.3 +2.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 157.1 -.11%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.6 -.31%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 22.5 +3.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 -5.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .77 +4.1%

• NYSE Arms .92 +18.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.0 -.02%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 393.65 +.98%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 417.0 +41.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.5 +.87% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 306.7 -.44%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 176.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.1 -2.34%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 222.6 -2.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.97 +.21%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 16.75 basis points -2.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 14.5 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.5 -2.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 177.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 723.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 90.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.4 -.18%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.31% -4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 162.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.5 euros/megawatt-hour  +20.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.2 -10.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -82.2 -9.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.2 +.8 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.07 +.26:  Growth Rate +2.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.6 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.24% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 201.90 -3.72: Growth Rate +32.7% -2.4 percentage points, P/E 36.9 +2.0
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .11 -8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.51 +12.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -80.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.96% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.71% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 52.5%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 47.7%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -20 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -48 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my medical/utility sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Education +3.1% 2) Regional Banks -2.1% 3) Semis -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• URBN, DIOD, DELL, HPQ, CNHI, MMM, BX, GDDY, IRBT, EURN, HWC, WERN, S, CRDO, SIG, SNBR, NTCT, DG, MKTX, CHDN, CBRL, BPMC, SCVL, RCUS, CHRW, CPNG, FRO, ASO, BZ, ENVX, PETS, RIOT, MSTR, GLOB, VSCO, DAVA, ZUMZ, COIN, SDA and EPAM
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IOT 2) IAU 3) GTLB 4) SABR 5) ASO
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EPAM 2) MSTR 3) LPSN 4) TGT 5) EL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume