Sunday, August 13, 2023

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (PLMR), (NEE), (CMCSA) and (CRD/B).
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.75 +1.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 64.5 +3.0 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.2 USD/Metric Tonne -1.5%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.5 -.07%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.0 +.6%.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .36 -3.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.1 unch. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.12%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Friday, August 11, 2023

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
MarketWatch.com:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,462.5 -.18%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 35,303.8 +.58%
  • NASDAQ 13,650.0 -1.9%
  • Russell 2000 1,925.7 -1.6%
  • NYSE FANG+ 7,542.4 -3.4% 
  • Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 37.9 -5.9%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 162.4 -5.4%
  • Wilshire 5000 44,634.8 -.52%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,752.8 -.85%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,581.8 +.31%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 785.21 +.28%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,225.05 -2.1%
  • NYSE Technology 3,642.7 -2.94%
  • Transports 16,219.1 -.65%
  • Utilities 993.4 +.84%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 85.3 -.66%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 39.6 -2.6%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 192.86 +.09%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 103.47 -.23%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 467,600 -.1%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.9 +70.3%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -99 -1
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -29.4 -4.7%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 241,859 +7.4%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,752,072 +.49%
  • Total Put/Call .97 -11.8%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.69 -14.8%
  • ISE Sentiment 107.0 -1.0 point
  • NYSE Arms .87 -53.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.6 +3.0%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .39 +23.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -.08 -8.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.1 -9.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .84% -20.8%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 22.1 -1.4%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.0 -3.6%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.97 -.56%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 13,519.1 -1.8%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  65.5 -13.0
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.530 Trillion +.26%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$2.601 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 44.7 -8.8%
  • AAII % Bears 25.5 +19.7%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 279.96 +.18%
  • Crude Oil 83.1/bbl. +.9%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 295.1 +6.0%
  • Natural Gas 2.77 +5.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.3 euros/megawatt-hour +21.7%
  • Heating Oil 311.4 +2.6% 
  • Newcastle Coal 154.0 (1,000/metric ton) +8.5%
  • Gold 1,913.4 -1.25%
  • Silver 22.7 -3.6%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 413.7 -1.8%
  • Copper 371.60 -3.0%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 359.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
  • CME Lumber  494.50 -.40%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,574.75 -.51%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 313.5 USD/Short Ton -1.3%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +4.12% +9.0 basis points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.42 -12.4%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 61.0 +13.5%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(455 of 500 reporting) -8.3% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.09 n/a:  Growth Rate +7.0% n/a, P/E 19.1 n/a
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.0% n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.54 n/a: Growth Rate +41.1% n/a, P/E 32.9 n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 73.7 -4.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -83.3 +10.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.6 +5.2 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-0.0 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 88.5%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of no change, 11.5%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 9/20
  • US Dollar Index 102.9 +.59%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,682.8 -.17%
  • Bitcoin/USD 29,323.5 +1.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.8 +1.9%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -73.5 +.25 basis point
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.16% +13.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.171 Trillion +.02% 
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.131 Billion +1.8%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.5 +11.8%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 177.3 +1.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.0 -2.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.7 -.9%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 62.8 +13.4%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 171.6 -1.3%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 56.11 +.79%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.6 +11.8%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.39 -.99%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.0% -.1 percentage point
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +4.1% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +4.0% -.9 percentage point
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.0% +.1 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.2% unch.: CPI YoY +3.8% +.4 percentage point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37% unch.
  • TED Spread 21.0 -2.5 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.0 -2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.75 +2.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 66.4 -.8%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 189.0 -.41
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 353.0 +1.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 81.27 +1.1%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 248.92 -6.1%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 202.07 +.59%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 174.0 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 746.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .68 unch.
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -3.6% +40.0 basis points
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,171.6 +.5%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 231,000 +1.2%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% -10.0 basis points
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 48.6 -1.1%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.46% +7.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 194,500 -3.1%
  • Weekly Retail Sales -.2% +10.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -4.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Box Office Weekly Gross YoY $116.6M -13.4%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.84/gallon +.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,137.0 +.09%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 874.6 +1.18%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 39.4 +10.1%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 249,739 -1.3%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,648,442 +10.2%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +.3%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -2.1%
Leading Sectors
  • Pharma +6.3%
  • Telecom +5.9%
  • Energy +3.5%
  • Oil Service +1.8%
  • Construction +1.7%
Lagging Sectors
  • AI/Robotics -4.2%
  • Semis -4.6%
  • Digital Health -5.1%
  • Alt Energy -5.8%
  • Disk Drives -9.9%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)
  • INOD, APLS, AVDL, NTRA, UBS, NWS, CCOI, NWSA, FLO and APP
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)
  • NVEI, PODD, AMX, SAFE, DOCS, GPCR, AVTA, PENN, FUTU, SMCI and MAXN
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change