Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.5% 2) Pharma -2.1% 3) Airlines -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SWAV, LI, LZ, LYFT, TOST, ABBV, WIX, EWCZ, LMND, FVRR, FLYW, WRBY, ESTA, HUBS, JAZZ, CCCS, SONY, DNUT, MYGN, NEP, DGII, EXPI, BILL, BDX, SHLS, DIOD, G, NTLA, VEEV, ASLE, MODG, TH, TTEC and AMLX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NTR 2) URNM 3) BB 4) APP 5) BILL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ATRA 2) EVA 3) INSE 4) PCT 5) MODG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +2.3% 2) Disk Drives +2.1% 3) Computer Hardware +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• METC, PUBM, RAMP, VERX, ALTG, DUOL, AFRM, LMB, CYRX, NTRA, BE, AMPH, SUPN, JXN, AMBC, TTGT, VSAT, NOMD, TDG, GNK, DIS, ACIW, VVV, EYE, MSTR, MATV, STNG, SU, CECO, RCI, PYCR, OR, NFE, MU, CERT, CNM, TRMD, SPR, APGE, PARA and RIOT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) APP 2) UMC 3) ILMN 4) COMM 5) BILL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AFRM 2) RAMP 3) DUOL 4) MARA 5) JXN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BGNE)/-3.38

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index for Nov. is estimated at 63.8 versus 63.8 in Oct.
• Univ. of Mich. 1-Year Inflation Expectation Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to +4.0% versus +4.2% in Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Logan speaking, US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count and the CFTC speculative positioning report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.1 +.5
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 48.8% of Issues Advancing, 48.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .92 -39.5% 
• Non-Block Money Flow +$152.8M
  
• 35 New 52-Week Highs, 48 New Lows
• 33.6%(-.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.0 unch.

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.2 +.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,608.2 +.02%
  
• 1-Day Vix 10.2 -8.9%
  
• Vix 14.6 +.9%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.01 -15.2%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.0 - basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 70.75 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 125.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.26%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.6 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.8 +3.0%
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .12 -1.0 basis point.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.1 +.15%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%.

• S&P 500 futures -.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.15%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, China Economy Concerns, Technical Selling, Financial/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.6 -1.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .75% +42.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.1 -2.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 172.7 +.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.78 -.77%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 23.8 -3.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 -4.0
  

• Total Put/Call .91 -7.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.38 +1.47% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$37.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.30 -1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 347.05 +1.76%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 376 +9
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.7 -2.0% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 265.7 +.03%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.32 -4.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 210.56 -.86%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 122.87 -1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.8 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.25 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 20.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.75 -2.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 170.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 908.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 98.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.60 -.18%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.42% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 125.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.78 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.6 +.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -45.2 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.2 +1.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(424 of 500 reporting) +2.2% -.3 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.84 +.08:  Growth Rate +8.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.2 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +38.4% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.84 +.13: Growth Rate +62.1% unch., P/E 28.4 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .12 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .81 -2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -40.75 basis points (2s/10s) -6.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.09% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.63% unch.: CPI YoY +3.28% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st FOMC meeting: 82.9%(-1.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 20th meeting: 68.2%(+1.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +143 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +1 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +50 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long