Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.6 -1.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .65% +56.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.3 +.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 173.6 -.61%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.8 +1.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.2 -.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 157.0 +29.0
  

• Total Put/Call .98 +11.4%

• NYSE Arms .83 -6.7% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$144.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.2 -2.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 340.96 -1.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 356 +12
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 79.6 -1.6% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 249.6 -.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 173.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.5 -3.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 187.8 -2.7%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 120.58 -5.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.36 +.36%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -19.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 24.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.5 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 159.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 942.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 95.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.9 +.3%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 132.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.82 euros/megawatt-hour +1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.6 +.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -31.7 +7.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 22.0 -.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(471 of 500 reporting) +2.8% +.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 241.04 +.12:  Growth Rate +9.1% unch., P/E 18.8 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +38.4% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.92 +.30: Growth Rate +63.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 29.9 +.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .33 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .26 +5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -49.25 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +1.97% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.55% unch.: CPI YoY +3.10% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st FOMC meeting: 98.9%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 20th meeting: 72.0%(unch.) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +62 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +75 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +93 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/transport/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Agriculture -.8% 2) Utilities -.6% 3) Education -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SSRM
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LUMN 2) YPF 3) BURL 4) DKS 5) ASHR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NSTG 2) PXMD 3) PCT 4) NKLA 5) CHGG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Social Media +2.1% 2) Digital Health +2.1% 3) Alt Energy +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• YPF, HRT, BMA, GGAL, VIST, AAOI, BEAM, RILY,  EDIT, AGRO, NTLA, LPG, XPEV, PARA, MARA, PENN, CRSP, GLBE, ERO, BUR, AVDL, BZ, FUTU, PANW, MSTR, PLTR, BA, GPS, DRS, SAVE, DOLE and LMND
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FITB 2) TAL 3) TDS 4) BURL 5) EDIT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CUEN 2) SNES 3) YMM 4) MOON 5) IOVA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ANF)/1.18
• (ADI)/2.02
• (BIDU)/17.18
• (BBY)/1.19
• (BURL)/.97
• (DKS)/2.45
• (DY)/1.75
• (HIBB)/1.18
• (J)/2.02
• (KSS)/.35
• (LOW)/3.02
• (MDT)/1.18

After the Close: 

• (ADSK)/1.99
• (GES)/.61
• (HPQ)/./91
• (JACK)/1.14
• (JWN)/.12
• (NVDA)/3.37
• (URBN)/.82
• (AEO)/.48
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Oct. is estimated at 0.0 versus .02 in Sept. 
• Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for Nov.

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for Oct. is estimated to fall to 3.9M versus 3.96M in Sept.

2:00 pm EST

• The Nov. 1 FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 10Y TIPS bond auction, weekly US retail sales reports and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.9 +1.6
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 59.7% of Issues Advancing, 37.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .69 -22.5% 
• Non-Block Money Flow +$78.7M
  
• 59 New 52-Week Highs, 13 New Lows
• 45.0%(+3.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 +2.0

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.2 +.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,713.3 +.53%
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.1 -18.1%
  
• Vix 13.7 -1.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .99 +12.5%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Release of Hamas Hostages Has Gotten Closer, Biden Aide Says. 
• Chinese Banks Maintain Lending Rates After PBOC Policy Rate Hold.
• Nikkei 225 Touches Fresh 33-Year High as Japanese Stocks Climb.
• Dollar Scarcity is Pushing More African Countries to Crisis.
• MPs Raise National Security Concerns Over UAE-Backed Telegraph Offer. 
• Asia Stocks Edge Higher on Bets Fed Hiking Is Done: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Steadies After Two-Day Swing as Countdown to OPEC+ Begins.
• Bonds’ Best Month Since March Faces ‘Sanity Check’ in Auction.
• Altman Sought Billions For AI Chip Venture Before OpenAI Ouster.
• OpenAI Board Urged by Microsoft, Investors to Restore Altman.
• Blackstone Is Lead Bidder in Signature Bank Property-Loan Sale.
• Hackers Are Exploiting a Flaw in Citrix Software Despite Fix.
• 96 Luxury Gifts Totaling More Than $1 Million in Holiday Cheer.
• Thanksgiving Week May Say a Lot About the US Consumer: Joe Weisenthal.
• Lasting Recovery in Small Caps Still Elusive as Debt Costs Bite. 
• A $1.5 Trillion Loan Market Gets Stung by Anti-ESG Movement.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.

Zero Hedge:

• Anti-Woke Central Bank Nemesis Javier Milei Wins Argentina's Presidential Election
• Cheney, Kinzinger, And "Sham" J6 Committee Under Fire After Friday Footage Dump; GOP Senator Calls For Investigation
• Conservative Think Tank Reveals Best, Worst States For Freedom In Education.
• Dictator Xi's American Cleanup Tour.
• The Rise Of Socialists In Latin America Is Giving Terror Groups A Home.
• Morgan Stanley's 2024 Outlook: "What We Debated".
• Family Businesses Can’t Afford To Lose Access To Reliable Electricity.
• Is This Why The OpenAI Board Fired CEO/Co-Founder Altman?
• How Important Is The Holiday Season For US Retailers?
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Turley: Don't Count On A Trump Conviction - None Of These Cases Are Slam-Dunks.
• "He's Going To Lose": Bill Maher And Donna Brazile Slam Biden As Democrats Recoil Over Age, Handling Of Israel War.
• Elon Musk's X Intervenes For Student In Trouble With College Over Social Media Posts.
• As Mega-Cap Tech Broke Out To New Highs Last Week, Goldman Saw Biggest De-Grossing In 9 Months.
• Recycling Eco-Myths Is The Existential Threat.
• Yet Another Leftist Journalist Arrested On Child Pornography Charges.
• Rally On, Wayne! Rally On, Garth!
• Let The Donor Revolution Begin.
• Rep. Jordan Subpoenas Bank Of America Over Allegedly Sharing Jan. 6 Info With FBI.
• Reports Say Israeli Ship "Galaxy Leader" Hijacked By Houthi Terrorists.
• 18 Reasons Why You Really Need An Electric Car.
• "Reduce Your Emissions Within Two Months Or Face The Consequences", Brussels Tells 12 Member States.
• Bayer's Monsanto Hit With $1.5 Billion Verdict in Latest Roundup Cancer Case.
• New J6 Footage Shows Capitol Police May Have Incited Riot By Firing Munitions Into Peaceful Crowd.
• ASU Pulls Plug On Tlaib's Speech In Wake Of House Censure. 
• Millions Of Americans Are Walking Into A Chinese-Made Trap.

Wall Street Journal:

• OpenAI Investors Try to Get Sam Altman Back.
• They Believe Pesticides Caused Their Cancers. Proving It Is Almost Impossible.
• Wall Street Has a Plan for a Soft Landing: Buy More Stocks.
• Hamas’s Barbarity Heightens the Crisis in Higher Education. Jewish students bear the brunt of colleges’ culture of intolerance, conformity and ‘safe spaces.’
• This Coal Giant Now Wants to Get Out of Coal.
• The Coming Deluge for Small Business. The feds and business aren’t ready for new reporting rules on Jan. 1.
• For Families of Some Maui Fire Victims, $1 Million Payments Are Too Little, Too Soon.
• The ESG Craze Is Fading.
• The Estate Taxes Catching Americans by Surprise.
• China’s Problem With Unfinished Homes Keeps Getting Bigger.
• The Hack That Shook Wall Street’s Multitrillion-Dollar Foundations.
• How Starbucks Lost the Top Spot in China’s Coffee Race.
• U.S. Subsidies Fuel Boom in Global Auto Trade.

CNBC:

• Cut back on alcohol with tips from a bartender who no longer drinks.
• Musk threatens ‘thermonuclear lawsuit’ against media watchdog, calls advertisers ‘oppressors’. 
• Poll: Biden’s standing hits new lows amid Israel-Hamas war.

Reuters:

• Ousted OpenAI CEO Altman discusses possible return, mulls new AI venture-source.
• Exclusive-Germany, France and Italy reach agreement on future AI regulation.

MarketWatch.com:

• Stock market surges toward 2023 high. Will holiday shoppers put it over the top?
• Nvidia is expected to be the biggest contributor to Q3 corporate profits. ‘The bar is very high,’ analyst says

NewsMax:

• Trump Returning to Texas Border for Major Immigration Speech.
• Report: Americans Very Gloomy About the Biden Economy.
• Rep. Biggs: Vehicle Kill Switch Mandate About Control.
• Rep. Van Duyne: Biden Policies Seem to Put China First.

Fox News:

• Critics slam silence from UN over horrifying, graphic evidence of Hamas' gender-based atrocities
• LIVE UPDATES: IDF reveals footage of Hamas tunnel underneath Gaza's Al-Shifa hospital
• The sneaky scams criminals are using to access your bank account.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Chicago Crime Rate Hits Post-Covid Record-Up Almost 60 Percent in 2023.
• 300 Pounds of Fentanyl Seized at US-Mexico Border in Tucson Last Week.
• Judge Suspends Enforcement of Community College Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Rules in California.
• Denver Spending Millions to Ship Migrants All Over the Country.
• BREAKING: “We Need a President Who’s Going to Secure The Border!” – Governor Greg Abbott Endorses Donald Trump for President (VIDEO).
• MUST SEE: President Trump Serves Thanksgiving Dinner to Border Patrol Agents in Texas (VIDEO).
• Blue State Cuts ‘So Help Me God’ from Oath Requirement Following Atheist Group’s Federal Lawsuit.
• WATCH: Unseen Footage of Doctors Who Treated JFK Destroys ANOTHER Key Government Narrative Regarding His Assassination. 
• Corrupt Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo Used Encrypted Messaging Apps to Communicate with Indicted Staffer About $11 Million No-Bid ‘Vaccine Outreach’ Contract.
• Biden’s Pompous Jet-Setting ‘Climate Envoy’ John Kerry Attacks Farmers…AGAIN (VIDEO).
• Bombshell: Biden Pentagon Exposed for Buying Russian Fuel Oil, Evading Wartime Sanctions – Report.
• MTG Demands Speaker Johnson to Form a New January 6th Select Committee: “There Needs to Be Investigations and Accountability for All of the Lies, Deceit, and Lives Ruined”.
• Sick People: SNL Crowd Laughs and Cheers Hearing US Men Die Six Years Before Women (VIDEO).
• It Was a Set-Up: Recent J6 Footage Shows Capitol Police May Have Incited Riot – Fired on Massive Trump Crowd Without Warning.
• Guess Who Just Made the Final 20 in the Miss Universe Pageant?… A Trans and the Plus-Size Girl.
• Liberal Media Desperately Trying to Spin Idiot Leftist TikTokers Who Defended Osama bin Laden.
• Top Biden Admin Official Invites CCP and Russian Officials to Tour Sensitive US Nuclear Testing Sites.
• Survivor of Mao’s China Tells Glenn Beck That a ‘Woke’ Cultural Revolution is Happening in America RIGHT NOW (VIDEO).
• Biden White House Denies Report of Israel, Hamas 5-Day Fighting Pause and Release of Dozens of Hostages.

The Epoch Times:

• CCP Cuts Police Force, Experts Point to Economic Crisis and Past Collapses of Former Communist Regimes.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 988,705 Reports(+5,406 from prior week) Through October 27th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.0 -.75 basis point.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 63.75 -1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 130.20 USD/Metric Tonne +1.32%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.8 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.0 +2.0%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .28 -1.0 basis point. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.0 +.3%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.12%.
• S&P 500 futures -.08%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.23%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.