Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (HEI)/.69
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to 37.0 versus 34.0 in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German IFO Guidance and the BofA Hydrogen Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +56.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 4.8 -4.6
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 39.4% of Issues Advancing, 58.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.56 +56.0% 
• Non-Block Money Flow -$26.7M
  
• 156 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 62.2%(-1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 74.0 -6.0

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.5 +.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 141.73 +.48%
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,297.1 +.79%
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.7 -43.2%
  
• Vix 12.3 -1.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .76 -8.4%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.5 -3.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 57.75 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 134.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.37%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.85 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 57.8 +.6%.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 +5.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.2 -.01%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.15%.

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Plunging Long-Term Rates, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Financial/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.5 +2.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .61% +130.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.9 +4.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.3 +.36%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.9 +2.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.6 -3.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 149.0 +30.0
  

• Total Put/Call .75 -26.5%

• NYSE Arms .90 +20.0% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$211.6M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.9 +.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 348.75 -5.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 378 +10.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.5 -6.8% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 200.70 -5.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 167.0 basis points -9.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.85 -6.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 172.67 -.22%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 108.7 -2.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.77 +.11%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -18.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 27.25 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.0 +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 141.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 965.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 80.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.85 +.52%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 134.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.37%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.9 euros/megawatt-hour -2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.7 +6.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.6 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.7 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +14.2% +1.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 242.85 -.03:  Growth Rate +11.5% unch., P/E 19.5 +.4
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.08% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.15 +.15: Growth Rate +37.4% unch., P/E 29.2 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .55 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.17 -62.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -47.25 basis points (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.61% +1.36 percentage points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 67.0% +13.1 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.43% unch.: CPI YoY +3.38% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 +6.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 63.8%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 57.2%(+2.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -16 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +84 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/transport/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +2.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +6.1% 2) Alt Energy +6.0% 3) Banks +5.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GKOS, RUN, SEDG, CVNA, NOVA, PLL, ENPH, RIVN, AA, W, RH, TWST, BLD, MHK, RKT, ALGN, XMTR, MAC, AI, FLNC, JBL, GFI, KROS, DFH, FLNC, ZBRA, ZION, FSLR, POOL, MTH, WAL, RF, LTHM, TREE, FITB, ATKR, FCX, FLEX, TNDM, NXT, TRUP, BASE, CMA, SNV, OZK, SCHW, NYCB, XP, ZG, PK, HBAN, DEA, LYV, PLD, BAC, PCOR, GS, CMTG, TECK, LMND, CLSK, KEY, GME, ARRY, AB, BECN, SQM, VRNA, AYX, BAM, NTLA, AIRC, FNV, TITN, SN and CAE
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VLY 2) IP 3) SLG 4) RSP 5) XME

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RUN 2) AA 3) SCHW 4) CAT 5) ARM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DRI)/1.74

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Dec. is estimated to fall to 2.1 versus 9.1 in November.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.6% decline in Oct.
• Capacity Utilization for Nov. is estimated to rise to 79.1% versus 78.9% in Oct.
• Manufacturing Production for Nov. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.7% decline in Oct.
  

9:45 am EST

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Dec. is estimated to rise to 49.5 versus 49.4 in Nov.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI for Dec. is estimated to fall to 50.7 versus 50.8 in Nov.
• The S&P Global US Composite PMI for Dec. is estimated to fall to 50.5 versus 50.7 in Nov.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The (THO) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST