Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.0%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +4.1% 2) Road & Rail +3.9% 3) Computer Hardware +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LRMR, LYFT, HCSG, REZI, KTOS, ASPN, MRC, TSEM, ALSN, VGR, HOOD, UBER, SAGE, IQV, BFAM, CLSK, CRL, AVTR, CHEF, WCC, SMCI, CLCO, DVA, UPWK, CRSR, MODG, PSN, Z, ZG, ES, ARM, ENTG, CSAN and REVG
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LBTYA 2) PPC 3) JCI 4) LYFT 5) GDDY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LYFT 2) BLNK 3) UBER 4) REZI 5) GLSI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ARCH)/7.55
• (CBRE)/1.18
• (CGNX)/.07
• (COHU)/.23
• (CROX)/2.36
• (DE)/5.27
• (GPC)/2.20
• (H)/.37
• (LH)/3.26
• (PENN)/-.54
• (RS)/3.92
• (SHAK)/.01
• (SO)/.60
• (SPWR)/-.25
• (WEN)/.23
• (YETI)/.96
• (ZBRA)/1.65
  

After the Close: 

• (AEM)/.49
• (AMAT)/1.90
• (COIN)/.02
• (ED)/.97
• (DLR)/1.65
• (DASH)/-.13
• (DKNG)/.08
• (DBX)/.48
• (IR)/.77
• (TXRH)/1.06
• (TTD)/.41
• (TOST)/.03
• (TRUP)/-.18
• (YELP)/.38
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Feb. is estimated to rise to -12.5 versus -43.7 in Jan.
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Jan. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.6% gain in Dec.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.6% gain in Dec.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to -8.1 versus -10.6 in Jan.
• The Import Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated unch. versus unch. in Dec.
• The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for Jan. is estimated unch. versus unch. in Dec.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.9% decline in Dec.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 220K versus 218K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1880K versus 1871K prior.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Dec.
• Capacity Utilization for Jan. is estimated to rise to 78.8% versus 78.6% in Dec. 
• Manufacturing Production for Jan. is estimated unch. versus a +.1% gain in Dec.  
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Dec. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.1% decline in Nov.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 46.0 versus 44.0 in Jan.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (WOR) investor meeting, (DDOG) investor day, (OTIS) investor day and the Wolfe Research Auto/Auto Tech Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.6 +1.9
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 77.4% of Issues Advancing, 20.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.20 +12.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$174.9M
  
• 63 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 58.2% (+3.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 58.0 +2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 59.4 +5.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 138.9 +.13%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,528.1 -.06%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 72.0 (Greed) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.4 -24.2%
  
• Vix 14.8 -6.8%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.01 +14.8%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.5 +2.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.5 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 127.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.3 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.2 +5.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.8 -1.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.23%

• S&P 500 futures +.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Declining Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Worries, Alt Energy/Regional Bank Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.8 +13.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.17 +72.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 58.8 -.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.5 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.8 -.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.5 +12.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 -6.0
  

• Total Put/Call .87 -16.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.28 +60.0% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$531.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.3 +3.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 310.4 +.19%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 309 unch.
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.4 -.18% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 209.7 +.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 155.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.4 +.19%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 184.9 +3.4%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 114.5 -.02%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.75 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.75 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 159.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 839.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 68.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.3 -.23%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 128.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.29%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 25.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.7 +3.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.3 +1.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .2 -.8 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(351 of 500 reporting) +5.3% +.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 245.55 +.19:  Growth Rate +10.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.2 -.4
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.27% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +44.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 305.93 +1.53: Growth Rate +43.4% +.7 percentage point, P/E 31.7 -1.0
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.09 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .83 -8.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -33.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.4% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 59.8% +.9 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% +8.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.06% +12.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 63.9%(+24.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 51.7%(+9.8 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -384 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -76 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech/transport sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -3.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -6.0% 2) Gold & Silver -5.9% 3) Regional Banks -4.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FROG, CRUS, AN, LBRDK, IMNM, BL, DNUT, SBLK, BDC, QSR, GOLD, NET, DDOG, CDNS, ZS, AHH, ANET, KALV, TNGX, PERI, ZTS, AGI, WSO, MAR, PAAS, WEAV, POWI, VNO, TTMI, BIIB, MCO, DBRG, EGO, INMD, OTTR, SHOP, IPGP, GT, ARM, CAR, TDC and WCC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CAR 2) TRIP 3) GTHX 4) ACI 5) FOXA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TWOU 2) SIEN 3) TDC 4) ALT 5) WCC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume