Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.25 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 72.0 -1.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.8 USD/Metric Tonne -2.8%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.5 +1.2%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.6 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%

• S&P 500 futures +.20%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.39%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Stable Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Commodity/Technology Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.3 -2.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .45 -10.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.3 +.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.4 +.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.6 +.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.8 -4.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 157.0 +8.0
  

• Total Put/Call .93 -1.1%

• NYSE Arms .95 +14.5%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$82.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.9 -1.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 280.80 -.93%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 280 +20
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.0 -.3%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 186.4 unch.
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 146.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.4 +.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 168.9 -1.3%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 117.6 +.09%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.27%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.75 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 3.5 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 140.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 782.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 +.4%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 25.6 euros/megawatt-hour -2.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.6 -2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 34.1 -6.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.3 -1.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +42.1% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 250.85 +.20:  Growth Rate +12.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.92 -.49: Growth Rate +29.8% -.2 percentage point, P/E 32.1 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.05 -7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .99 -72.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -32.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.8% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 51.3% -.1 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.67% unch.: CPI YoY +3.41% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 61.7%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 52.2%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +670 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +39 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +260 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/financial/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Foods -.8% 2) Airlines -.8% 3) Electric Vehicles -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IRON, COTY, NARI, INTC, ELF and ULTA
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) JETS 2) ACB 3) LW 4) AG 5) MCHP
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ULTA 2) EXPR 3) ELF 4) AGL 5) XPOF
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XBI 3) XLK 4) XLU 5) ARKK

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.8%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +2.4% 2) Computer Hardware +2.3% 3) Medical Equipment +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MNMD, SMXT, SMTC, TGS, PLAY, SIG, GCT, DELL, GE, SLCA, BMEA, SPOT, EH, PAAS, NRG, MEOH, PRIM, MODV, BMA, TPC, BMA, GBX, TDW, MAG, OWL, LSPD, PAM, APP, AA, TMDX, TNP, GKOS, WMG, WDC, MU, MXL, CENX, ROIV, SGML, ARCB, FTNT, PAR, SCCO, CLS, OI, VST, CALM, GFI, XLS, ALCC and KSPI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FGEN 2) ACB 3) LEVI 4) PAAS 5) SIL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) VNDA 2) SGRP 3) ABUS 4) PLAY 5) SIG

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) AMJ 2) FXR 3) XLI 4) XLY 5) XLC

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (LW)/1.45
• (LNN)/1.56
• (RPM)/.46
• (SMPL)/.38
• (CAG)/.65
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for March.
  

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for Feb. is estimated to widen to -$67.6B versus -$67.4B in Jan. 
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 214K versus 210K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1811K versus 1819K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kuger speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Harker speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q update, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, JPMorgan Retail Conference and the American Assoc. for Cancer Research Meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.1 +2.1
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 57.0% of Issues Advancing, 40.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .87 +4.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$93.7M
  
• 124 New 52-Week Highs, 31 New Lows
• 62.1% (+1.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.0 +5.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.2 +.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.7 +.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,932.4 +.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (Greed) +5.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.3 -18.3%
  
• Vix 14.4 -1.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .94 +.1%