Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.25 +1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 73.0 +1.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 -.06%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.6 +1.8%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.5 +1.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.33%

• S&P 500 futures -.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Less Dovish Fed Commentary, US Call for Ukraine's NATO Entrance, Worsening US/Israel Relations, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.8 -3.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .45 -1.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.8 +.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.9 +.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.6 -1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.7 -2.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 142.0 -7.0
  

• Total Put/Call .90 -14.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.07 -3.6%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$218.8M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.0 -2.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 276.1 -1.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 268 -12
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.6 -2.2%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 181.6 -2.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.0 basis points -7.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.9 -.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.2 -1.4%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 117.9 +.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.18%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 4.75 basis points +1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 137.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 782.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.0 +.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.36% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 97.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.2 euros/megawatt-hour +2.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.6 -2.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 40.7 +6.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.0 +4.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +39.5% -2.6 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 250.89 +.04:  Growth Rate +12.4% unch., P/E 20.9 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.85% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.79 -.13: Growth Rate +29.8% unch., P/E 32.6 +.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.07 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.06 +7.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -34.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.5% -30.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 52.1% +.8 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.67% unch.: CPI YoY +3.41% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 61.0%(-.8 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 51.1%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -273 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +65 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +112 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/transport/financial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -.2% 2) Restaurants -.2% 3) Foods -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HIMS, PFGC, PLAY, CBRL, USFD, EC, RPM, CGC, PARA, RGP, BYON, FNA and LW
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BKLN 2) ITB 3) LEVI 4) LW 5) SYF
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CASA 2) AXTI 3) PLCE 4) LW 5) SQ
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) FXR 2) XLP 3) GNR 4) XLV 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +2.5% 2) Airlines +2.2% 3) Gambling +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MGNX, STAA, ZETA, LEVI, SMTC, MXL, OUST, TMDX, HUBS, CRS, CERT, CNXC, ENPH, DKNG, HDB, GNRC, CYRX, STNE, FSLR, OLLI, CAG, ULTA, ALK, PGY, NTNX, TSLA, FRSH, META, TIMB, CELH, VRNA, AIR, SPOT, MDB, COTY, GEL, NVS, GE, SMG, PBR, W and DELL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LW 2) LEVI 3) PCG 4) FTAI 5) GNRC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MGNX 2) SLP 3) LEVI 4) STAA 5)HUBS

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLY 3) XLK 4) XLE 5) XLI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (GBX)/.86

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for March is estimated to fall to 215K versus 275K in Feb.
• The Unemployment Rate for March is estimated to fall to 3.8% versus 3.9% in Feb.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in Feb.
  

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Feb. is estimated to fall to $15.0B versus $19.5B in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking and the (CCL) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.1 -2.0
  
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 77.0% of Issues Advancing, 20.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.06 -4.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$282.8M
  
• 199 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 63.5% (+3.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 +3.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.8 +.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 144.6 +.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,951.7 +.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (Greed) +3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.2 -2.0%
  
• Vix 13.8 -3.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .89 -15.2%