Monday, May 06, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:  

Wall Street Journal:

CNBC.com:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

The Epoch Times:

OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.25 -3.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 63.5 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 119.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.8 -.5%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.7 -.57%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.38%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Construction Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.7 +1.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .51 -32.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.9 +.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 180.7 +.8%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.90 -2.0%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.2 -3.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 141.0 +46.0
  • Total Put/Call 1.36 +44.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.19 -22.2%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$296.3M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.12 -.61%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 252.0 -.49%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 284 +1
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.9 +.28%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 187.3 +.48%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 134.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.21 -2.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 159.0 -3.4%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 130.5 -.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 -.1%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.5 basis points -1.75 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 9.25 basis points +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 146.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 759.0 -10.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 +.21%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 119.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.35%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.8 euros/megawatt-hour +4.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.5 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.0 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.3 -.7 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(403 of 500 reporting) +5.1% +.8 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 254.93 -.16:  Growth Rate +14.3% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.2 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.92% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 325.39 +.81: Growth Rate +35.4% +.3 percentage point, P/E 31.1 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.09 +15.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .94 +11.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -34.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.3% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 48.0% +3.9 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 68.6%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 48.1%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +609 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Steel -.6% 2) Foods -.2% 3) Biotech -.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CGON, IMXI, KRYS, GME, TSN, THS, BOWL, IART and EYPT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) HA 2) TSN 3) GLYC 4) HIMS 5) ZI
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MMAT 2) IART 3) SAVE 4) LAZR 5) THS
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XOP 2) XLI 3) XLE 4) GDX 5) XLB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +1.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +3.6% 2) Education +2.5% 3) Construction +2.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • PRFT, MARA, TRUP, TWST, FRPT, GCT, EH, PLTR, TDS, SIMO, BBAR, GGAL, ALXO, BLCO, BMA, AAL, WWW, UPST, W, FN, APTV, GDYN, CAVA, SYM, VGR, ZIM, SIGA, MBUU, DNB, MEG, EAT, CLS, PARA, SGRY, ATGE, PWR, NSSC, ALCC, DKNG, JLL, ETSY, LI, NTGR, DRVN, MTZ, USM, HIMS, AY, CELH, OSCR, FLEX, LOCO, AESI, DUOL, FLUT, RPAY, BROS, BHF, ACHC, LBTYA, UBER, BEP, OLED, BMBL and FUTU
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PLNT 2) TSN 3) SYM 4) TEVA 5) COHR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PRFT 2) OM 3) BCRX 4) MARA 5) LINC
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLP 3) XLV 4) KRE 5) XLY
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BLMN)/.74
  • (CROX)/2.25
  • (DDOG)/.34
  • (DUK)/1.38
  • (ENR)/.67
  • (HSIC)/1.01
  • (J)/1.85 
  • (PRGO)/.23
  • (ROK)/2.15
  • (TPX)/.49
  • (TDG)/7.42
  • (UBS)/.24
  • (DIS)/1.10
  • (WAT)/2.09
After the Close: 
  • (ANDE)/.23
  • (ANET)/1.74
  • (CRUS)/.64
  • (CPNG)/.05
  • (EA)/1.52
  • (LOPE)/2.22
  • (IAC)/-1.32
  • (IRBT)/-2.01
  • (LYFT)/.06
  • (MTW)/.18
  • (MTCH)/.41
  • (MCK)/6.36
  • (MYGN)/-.10
  • (OXY)/.58
  • (RRR)/.58
  • (RDFN)/-.58
  • (RNG)/.80
  • (RGR)/.84
  • (TOST)/.05
  • (TRIP)/.04
  • (WYNN)/1.29
Economic Releases

3:00 pm EST

  • Consumer Credit for March is estimated to rise to $15.0B versus $14.125B in Feb.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kashkari speaking, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, (AAPL) iPad event, Assoc. for Research in Vision/Ophthalmology Meeting, (LSTR) annual meeting, (YETI) annual meeting, (OSK) annual meeting, (TREX) annual meeting, (D) annual meeting, (PGR) investor meeting, (GE) annual meeting, (OMC) annual meeting, (BMY) annual meeting, (BAX) annual meeting, (GPS) annual meeting, (NVR) annual meeting, (INTC) annual meeting, (SKYW) annual meeting, (CSCO) investor meeting, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference and the (TROW) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -10.7% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.0 +.5
  • 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
  • 76.9% of Issues Advancing, 21.2% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.26 +17.7%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$294.0M
  • 151 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
  • 59.7% (+2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 56.0 +7.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.2 -.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 142.4 +.6%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,171.7 +.12%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 40.0 (Fear) +1
  • 1-Day Vix 8.91 -15.0%
  • Vix 13.8 +2.3%
  • Total Put/Call 1.46 +55.3%