Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BIDU)/15.98
• (GOOS)/.05
• (DE)/7.86
• (JD)/4.67
• (UAA)/.08
• (WMT)/.52
  

After the Close: 

• (AMAT)/1.99
• (CPRT)/.39
• (FLO)/.41
• (TTWO)/.09
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 220K versus 231K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1780K versus 1785K the prior week.
• Housing Starts MoM for April is estimated to rise to 1420K versus 1321K in March.
• Building Permits MoM for April is estimated to rise +.9% versus a -3.7% decline in March.
• NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for May.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for May is estimated to fall to 8.0 versus 15.5 in April.
• The Import Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in March.
• The Export Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in March.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for April is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.4% gain in March.
• Capacity Utilization for April is estimated at 78.4% versus 78.4% in March.
• Manufacturing Production for April is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.5% gain in March.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Harker speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Needham Growth Conference, Needham Tech/Media/Consumer Conference, (CVS) annual meeting, (RGEN) annual meeting, (XYL) annual meeting, (CB) general meeting, (HRI) annual meeting, (MO) annual meeting, (RIG) annual meeting, (CLF) annual meeting, (HOG) annual meeting, (CBOE) annual meeting, (CMI) investor day, (HD) annual meeting, (LEA) annual meeting, (TXRH) annual meeting, (WEN) annual meeting, (ORLY) annual meeting, (XPO) annual meeting, (YUM) annual meeting, (DOW) investor day, (AVB) annual meeting and the (PH) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +25.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.2 +3.6
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 71.6% of Issues Advancing, 26.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 2.77 +275.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$195.4M
  
• 252 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 63.7% (+2.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 69.0 +5.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.0 -2.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 236.7 -.87%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,214.3 +.68%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 59.0 (Greed) +6.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.9 -47.2%
  
• Vix 12.7 -5.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .93 +4.5%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Record Dividends, Buybacks Act as an Anchor for Japanese Stocks.
• Europe’s Property Slump Easing as Rents Increase, Report Says.
• Asian Stocks Follow US Rally Before CPI Report.
• Oil Advances With Supply in Focus as US Stockpiles Seen Lower.
• S&P 500 Gets Close to All-Time High Before Key CPI.
• GameStop, AMC Shares Soar as Traders Pounce on Meme Stocks.
• S&P 500 Is Going Nowhere Through Year-End, Goldman’s Kostin Says.
• OpenAI Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever Is Leaving the Company.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia.

Zerohedge:  

• CPI Preview: After Five Beats In A Row, The First Miss Of 2024?
• "We Need To Deal With The Debt" - Goldman CEO Warns Interest Costs On America's Ballooning Borrowings Means "Issues Down The Road".
• OpenAI 'Exploring' How To Responsibly Generate AI Porn.
• Citadel's Ken Griffin Tells Qatar Audience: American Campus Chaos Is "Anarchy".
• House Oversight Cmte Probing Biden Voter Mobilization Order.
• RFK Jr. And AV24 Super PAC Sue Meta, Alleging Election Interference.
• Goldman Finds Commercial Power Demand In Virginia Explodes Higher As 'Next AI Trade' Soars.
• 1 In 8 US Adults Have Tried GLP-1 Obesity Medications, Poll Finds.
• Record Household Debt, Jump In Delinquencies Signal "Worsening Financial Distress", Fed Warns.
• US stocks ultimately gained after two-way price action post-PPI - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Snyder: "Demographic Winter Is Coming" As Fertility Rates Plummet All Over The Globe.
• Putin Plotting 'Physical Attacks' On West, UK Intelligence Warns, Amid Spate Of Mystery Arsons.
• Over Half Of Illegal Aliens In US Are Unemployed: Report.
• Will Tariffs Outweigh CPI?
• WTI Rebounds Off Two-Month Lows After API Reports Crude Draw.
• Markets see two-way action after PPI ahead of CPI - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Retail Wrecking Crew Hammers Hedgies Again; Stocks/Powell Shrug Off Stagflation Signals.

Wall Street Journal:

• Biden Moves Ahead on $1 Billion in New Arms for Israel.
• Google to Roll Out AI Search Summaries to Billions.
• Ship That Hit Baltimore Bridge Suffered Power Outages Before Leaving Port, NTSB Says.
• Harvard Reaches Deal With Student Protesters to End Encampment.
• Walmart to Lay Off and Relocate Workers.
• Regulators Probe Alphabet’s Waymo After 22 Self-Driving Car Incidents.

CNBC.com:

• China’s economy reveals pockets of softness. What to watch ahead of Friday’s data.
• Google I/O wrap-up: Gemini AI updates, new search features and more announced.
• Reddit shares close near record after two-day rally driven by meme stocks. 
• Fed Chair Powell says inflation has been higher than thought, expects rates to hold steady.
  

MarketWatch.com: 

• 5 things to know about meme stocks like GameStop and AMC — and why they’re hot again.
• Stock market could suffer ‘ugly’ day if April CPI comes in above this level.
• Red Lobster may file for bankruptcy by end of May: report.

Fox News:

• Trump unleashes on 'fascists' in Dem Party after 'very good day' of trial.
• Biden repeats false claim that inflation was 9% when he became president.
• Battleground state removing noncitizens from voter registration.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• HUGE! White House Admits the Biden-Led Witch Hunt Trial Against Trump is “Related to 2024 Elections” (VIDEO).
• Northwestern University Journalism Professor Says the Quiet Part Out Loud “Our Work is Not About Objectivity”.
• BIDEN BORDER BLOODBATH: Illegal Alien From El Salvador Murders West Virginia Woman by Lighting Her on Fire.
• The W.H.O. “Pandemic Treaty” WILL be Negotiated in Secret! Our Sovereignty is Under Attack, as a Loophole is Uncovered (VIDEO).
• Taxpayer Funds at Play: Secretary Blinken Rocks Out in Kyiv, Singing “Rocking to the Free World” to Ukrainians As Russian Troops Advance on Kharkiv (VIDEO).
• WAYNE ROOT: If You’re Paying Attention, Biden Just Told Us How Democrats Plan to Rig & Steal 2024 Election.
• German Court Allows Intelligence Monitoring of Conservative AfD Party Over ‘Threat to Democracy,’ Could Ban It Altogether.

The Epoch Times:

• ‘It’s Cheating’: Biden Champions China Tariffs Among Union Workers.
• China’s Migrant Workers Look For Work Outside Construction Amidst Dismal Real Estate Market.

X:

• @catturd2

• If this doesn’t infuriate you, nothing will. Nothing to see here. Just Secretary of State Antony Blinken partying at a bar in Ukraine after delivering them another $80 BILLION. These people hate us. (video)

• @MikeBenzCyber

• So no elections in Ukraine for another 10 years. No elections (the US State Dept declares) “even if there is a long term ceasefire or peace.” (video)

• @wideawake_media

• One of the world's most respected scholars, Thomas Sowell, on the "man-made global warming" scam: (video)

• @VigilantFox

• Watch Aaron Rodgers and Tucker Carlson Dunk on Joe Biden, Zelensky, and More. Biden “can’t even walk,” doesn’t even know how to “operate a microwave,” and “sh*ts his pants every now and then.” Zelensky “looks like he’s going to be in the Village People music video.” And White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre is the “single dumbest but most self-confident person in the entire nation of 350 million people.” (video)
• Ed Dowd: “The Only Way Biden Wins Is If They CHEAT”. “We’ve never seen approval numbers like this. So if he wins, if he’s still actually alive, it’ll be theft.” Official reports suggest that Biden’s approval ratings are hovering around 36%. But Biden’s real approval rating is only about 8%, according to economic forecaster Martin Armstrong and an anonymous Big Tech source. Ed Dowd revealed that he has “seen numbers” to suggest that 30% of black men and 15% of black women will vote for Trump in 2024. (video)

• @DiedSuddenly
  

• Former United States Assistant Secretary Catherine Austin Fitts explaining what the planned “Great Reset” really is. Shocking. (video)

• @Liz_churchill10
  

• Ukraine was a money-laundering operation. Shouldn’t be hard to see at this point. Our tax dollars sent for defence in Northern Ukraine was immediately stolen. Lol. (pic)

• @newstart_2024

• This is scary... Dr. Meryl Nass, a biowarfare expert, says Covid was likely made in a lab "You know, maybe it was deliberate. That's one thing you have to consider. But the other thing is you just look at the genome. There are so many different things that have been changed. There's at least a dozen things in that genome that are very odd and that cause specific medical problems. So there are things in that genome that are there to impact your immune system and make it harder for you to fight off the infection. People knew when they created the vaccine, for instance, that the spike was very toxic. (video)
  

• @WallStreetSilv

• ALERT: NYC Mayor Says ILLEGAL Aliens Could Solve Lifeguard Shortage Because They're "Excellent Swimmers". New Yorkers also want them to stay to handle cheap lawn care, cheap dish washers, cheap nanny and all sorts of jobs they deem appropriate for the permanent underclass. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,010,545 Reports(+992 from prior report) Through April 26th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.75 -1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.0 -1.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 114.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.03%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.8 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.5 +1.7%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.3 -.06%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.20%.

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.3 -2.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .42 -32.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.6 -1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.7 +.44%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.93 +.14%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 15.8 -4.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 147.0 -5.0
  

• Total Put/Call .88 -2.2%

• NYSE Arms .61 -30.0%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$85.1M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.5 -.08%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 263.4 +2.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 291 +1
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.91 +.37%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 178.32 +.66%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 134.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.0 -2.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.60 -.57%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 129.53 -.18%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.73 +.22%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.5 basis points unch.
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.25 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 139.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 743.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 59.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 +.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.54%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.67 euros/megawatt-hour +.31%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.2 +1.7

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.9 +.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.1 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(460 of 500 reporting) +5.4% -.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 255.50 +.09:  Growth Rate +14.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.4 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.88% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 326.46 +.04: Growth Rate +35.9% unch., P/E 31.3 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.10 -6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .95 -9.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -37.5 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.2% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 47.4% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 70.4%(-4.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 49.8%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +230 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +7 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +160 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my financial/consumer discretionary/biotech/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DOLE)/.31
• (CAE)/.31
  

After the Close: 

• (CSCO)/.83
• (CPA)/3.38
• (JD)/4.67
• (SSYS)/-.07
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Empire Manufacturing Index for May is estimated to rise to -10.0 versus -14.3 in April.
• The CPI MoM for April is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in March.
• The CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in March.  
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for April.
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for April is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.7% gain in March.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.1% gain in March.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for April is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +1.0% gain in March.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for March is estimated to fall by -.1% versus a +.4% gain in Feb.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for May is estimated to fall to 50.0 versus 51.0 in April.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for March.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, IEA Monthly report, JPMorgan Homebuilding/Building Products Conference, BofA Metals/Mining/Steel Conference, Barclays Emerging Payments/Fintech Forum, BMO Farm to Market Conference, RBC Future of Water Conference, BofA Healthcare Conference, BMO Chemicals Conference, (NOC) annual meeting, (TRV) annual meeting, (PSX) annual meeting, (ODFL) annual meeting, (LUV) annual meeting, (STT) annual meeting, (KSS) annual meeting, (HAL) annual meeting and the BofA Transport/Airlines/Industrials Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +43.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.6 +1.4
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 62.4% of Issues Advancing, 35.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .64 -26.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$57.0M
  
• 114 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 62.6% (+2.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 64.0 -1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.9 +.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 238.69 +.03%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,023.2 -.21%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 53.0 (Neutral) +3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 12.7 +7.6%
  
• Vix 13.6 -.07%
  
• Total Put/Call .88 -2.2%