Tuesday, November 05, 2024

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.8%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Steel -1.2% 2) Gambling -.8% 3) Pharma -.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CSTL, GN, HUN, HOLX, VOYA, ST, NXPI, XPOF, APLS, CRUS, RACE, AZN, ADM, AGCO, BERY, TEM, CLF, WYNN, TKR, BWIN, BFAM, TDC, BVS, AOSL, CE, MAX and JELD
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CPNG 2) FYBR 3) HST 4) ADM 5) BEN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CE 2) ADM 3) MQ 4) JELD 5) TCMD
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLP 2) XLI 3) XLF 4) KRE 5) XLB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +2.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +3.0% 2) Social Media +2.9% 3) Construction +2.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ALAB, ARIS, LIND, CENX, PLTR, XMTR, PAYO, PRAA, GFS, INGR, STVN, ICHR, PINC, CWK, PRIM, DJT, RDDT, CLW, BOWL, IRBT, HPK, TLN, SEI, AVO, EH, AVO, HUT, IRON, LPX, IRTC, CMCO, INOD, EMR, ZK, GOOD, TAC, QNST, DD, METC, NEO, GEO, HHH, GNRC, APO, RYAAY, ATRC, VRTX, CLS, NTST, IONQ, CWH, OTTR, BLDR, BPMC, GTLS, NGVT, CEIX, FWRD, SOFI, SNBR, CLBT, W, RYTM, TRI, BE, VERA, WTTR, CPNG, APPN and GTES
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SYF 2) MQ 3) GOGO 4) CHPT 5) CPNG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) VMEO 2) PLTR 3) ALAB 4) UFPT 5) PAYO
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XBI 3) FDN 4) VGT 5) OIH
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AEP)/1.80
  • (CRL)/2.42
  • (CVS)/1.46
  • (IRM)/1.11
  • (JCI)/.56
  • (JLL)/2.74
  • (ODP)/1.60
  • (OC)/4.05
  • (SMG)/-1.96
  • (SHOP)/.27
  • (VSH)/.14
After the Close: 
  • (ALB)/-.44
  • (APA)/.97
  • (APP)/.92
  • (ARM)/.26
  • (BYND)/-.48
  • (DUOL)/.35
  • (ELF)/.43
  • (GILD)/1.51
  • (JAZZ)/5.50
  • (LYFT)/.19
  • (MRO)/.63
  • (MTCH)/.48
  • (MCK)/6.88
  • (MELI)/10.59
  • (QCOM)/2.56
  • (RGLD)/1.32 
  • (STE)/2.12
  • (TTWO)/.42
  • (TRIP)/.45
  • (VSTO)/.98
  • (WMB)/.42
  • (ZG)/.28
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +401,670 barrels versus a -515,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -327,830 barrels versus a -2,707,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +112,830 barrels versus a -977,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.52% versus a -.4% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The US election results, 30Y bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (KLAC) annual meeting, (CAH) annual meeting and the Stifel Midwest Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +1.2% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.9 +5.5
  • 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
  • 74.2% of Issues Advancing, 24.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .92 -17.9%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$13.4M
  • 96 New 52-Week Highs, 47 New Lows
  • 57.9% (+3.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 +2.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.2 +4.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 236.5 +.6%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,138.9 +.57%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 44.0 (FEAR) +1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 24.1 +65.1%
  • Vix 20.3 -7.6%
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 -22.0%

Monday, November 04, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @realDonaldTrump
  • @elonmusk
  • @Overton_news
  • @CollinRugg
  • @kylenabecker
  • @pjcolbeck
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @CharlieKirk11
  • @JasonCalvi
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @ImMeme0
  • @bamajayt
  • @OversightPR
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @drawandstrike
  • @pepesgrandma
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @RenzTom
  • @newstart_2004
  • @MarioNawful
  • @MTGrepp
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @Amuse
  • @nickshirleyy
  • @GuntherEagleman
  • @BeachforGA
  • @catturd2
  • @TimRunsHisMouth
  • @lakemonstercl1
  • EricLDaugh
  • @BoLoudon
  • @77HERCULES77
  • @Mostofsky
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.0 +2.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 66.5 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.1 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.8 +.9%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.7 -.01%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.08%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.08%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by energy and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Escalating US Election Integrity Concerns, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Mid-East Regional War Worries, Airline/Restaurant Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.11 +.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.51% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.13%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.30 euros/megawatt-hour +2.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.9 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.2 +2.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.4 -.3 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(361 of 500 reporting) +8.3% -.4 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.70 +.26:  Growth Rate +15.1% -.2 percentage point, P/E 21.2 -.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.60% -10.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 375.52 +2.49: Growth Rate +31.9% +.7 percentage point, P/E 31.1 -.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 +10.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.16 +6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 13.25 basis point (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.32% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.6% +.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 81.7%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 46.3%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +456 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +85 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long