Sunday, December 15, 2024

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:     
Zero Hedge: 
CNBC:  
MarketWatch.com:  
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @Songpinganq
  • @ScottAdamsSays
  • My current drone theory: Drones are the future of warfare. We expect a drone war soon, in Iran or elsewhere. Our supply of drones far exceeds our supply of drone pilots. We need massive training, and fast. DEI is probably a factor. It wouldn’t make sense to train in a country where a downed drone could be captured and reverse engineered. Makes sense to train in America, for that and other practical reasons. The training is at night because the future missions will mostly be at night. The drones are so reliable there is no real risk of one crashing in an urban area. The military already routinely flies over populated areas. The public is not told why we need to suddenly and massively train drone pilots because it would tip off enemies and cause too much public outcry.
  • @RWMaloneMD
  • @MarioNawful
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @ImMeme0
  • @goddeketal
  • @louietraub
  • @DerrickEvans4WV
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @IGSquawk 
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.0 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 61.0 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.1 +.4%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.3 +.1%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.14%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and healthcare shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, December 14, 2024

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (EAT).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:     

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @GenFlynn
  • @Songpinganq
  • @austerrewyatt1
  • @MarioNawful
  • READY TO TURN YOUR BRAIN INTO A SUPERCOMPUTER? Neuralink’s N1 implant is taking humanity to the next level. This coin-sized device uses 1,024 ultra-thin electrodes to read your neural signals and turn thoughts into actions—like typing, playing games, or designing 3D objects. Current speed? 9.5 bits per second. By 2025, Neuralink plans to hit 40 BPS (human-level brain speed) and keep climbing to 100 BPS by 2030. That’s faster than you can type or even think out loud. From restoring independence for people with paralysis to replacing smartphones, this is where biology meets cutting-edge tech. 
  • When did Reddit become so biased? (graph)
  • @Bannons_WarRoom
  • @LauraLoomer
  • ATTENTION MAGA!! RINO Senator Todd Young @SenToddYoung was asked by CNN if he will be supporting Pete Hegseth @PeteHegseth for Secretary of Defense. He said, “I haven't decided yet, as I've shared with him and happy to share with others…We had a good meeting. It was an extensive conversation, and he answered the questions I asked.” It’s also worth noting that his colleague @SenJoniErnst hasn’t fully committed to voting yes to confirm Hegseth as Defense Secretary. She said, “As I support Pete through this process”, which is not an affirmative YES! Both Ernst and Young supported Senator @SenatorLankford’s mass amnesty bill. (video)
  • @DonaldJTrumpJr
  • @MJTurthUltra
  • @MikeZaccardi
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @IGSquawk 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Friday, December 13, 2024

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Seasonal Strength, Short-Covering, Tech/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.6 -2.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .59 +10.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 67.9 -.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.6 +.96%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 -.8%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 11.0 -4.1% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 169.0 -5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .84 -4.6%
  • NYSE Arms .74 -14.9%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$198.6M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.9 +.8%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 307.0 +.5%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 181.0 -9.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.6 +1.6%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 148.6 +.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 114.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.8 +2.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 156.4 +1.4%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 104.9 +.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 -.08%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -19.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -28.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 137.0 +7.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 643.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 45.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 -.1%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.2 euros/megawatt-hour -3.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.3 -6.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -23.0 +2.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.2 -.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(4 of 500 reporting) +9.7% +.8 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 270.96 +.12:  Growth Rate +13.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.3 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.55% -3.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 384.87 +.01: Growth Rate +22.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.8 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .88 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.13 -29.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 15.75 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.33% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.6% -4.0 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.97% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 81.0%(+3.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 52.7%(-.8 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +225 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -47 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long