Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg: 

Zerohedge: 

The Wall Stree Journal:
CNBC:
MarketWatch.com:
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @TonySeruga
  • @DavidJHarrisJr
  • @NickSortor
  • @RealDrJaneRuby
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @mattdizwhitlock
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @JamesOKeefeIII
  • @BreakinNewz
  • @libsoftiktok
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.5 -2.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 58.75 -2.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 74.2 +.5%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.5 -.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.28%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Jitters, Fed Policy Mistake Worries, Ongoing Rotation from "Growth" to "Value", Consumer Discretionary/Pharma Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 +.2%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.16%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.3 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.3 +.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.3 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(22 of 500 reporting) +20.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 273.08 -.03:  Growth Rate +14.6% unch., P/E 21.3 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.59% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 395.53 +.22: Growth Rate +26.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.4 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .63 unch.
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.45 -8.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 42.25 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.73% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 20.1% +.6 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 77.9% (-2.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 64.7%(-4.1 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +356 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -39 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +145 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth unch.
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Pharma -2.5% 2) Biotech -1.3% 3) Retail -.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ANF, SIMO, FTAI, CSTL, NVO, CRL, LLY, ELVN, SWTX, CLMT, ARDT, VKTX, WGS, SIG and AEHR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FEZ 2) KEY 3) SIG 4) XP 5) LAES
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SIG 2) LLY 3) AEHR 4) CHGG 5) MRNA
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) KRE 3) XLC 4) XLB 5) XLP

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +1.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Regional Banks +3.4% 2) Construction +2.9% 3) Homebuilding +2.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • HEES, ACMR, PTLO, ONC, HSAI, OPFI, KYMR, HOOD, TGTX, SERV, HRI, BMA, EH, BBAR, SUPV, CVRX, TYRA, AGX, EDN, BROS, BBIO, RKT, KTOS, LNG, SRAD, AYI, BZ, WHR, TH, IONQ, CRESY, WIX, PWP, VST, CEG, VRNA, GBCI, DB, KGC, NVMI, BV, BLDR, MDT, CEPU, OZK, MBLY, ROIV and WMB
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PCG 2) ACMR 3) XME 4) RRC 5) OPFI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ACMR 2) APLD 3) ONC 4) QEPC 5) ANGI
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLV 2) XLE 3) XLF 4) XLI 5) IXN
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BLK)/11.26
  • (BK)/1.54
  • (C)/1.22
  • (GS)/8.21
  • (JPM)/4.09
  • (WFC)/1.35
After the Close: 
  • (FUL)/1.00
  • (SNV)/1.15
  • (HOMB)/.52
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Dec. 
  • Empire Manufacturing for Jan. is estimated to rise to 3.0 versus .2 in Dec.
  • The CPI MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in Nov.
  • The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Nov.

10:30 am EST 

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -911,500 barrels versus a -959,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +2,079,250 barrels versus a +6,330,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +483,250 barrels versus a +6,071,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -1.1% versus a +.6% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

  • Federal Reserve Beige Book release.

Upcoming Splits

  • (RLI) 2-for0-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, IEA monthly report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Needham Growth Conference and the (DHI) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +10.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.1 unch.
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 62.5% of Issues Advancing, 35.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.28 +75.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$36.1M
  • 37 New 52-Week Highs, 38 New Lows
  • 48.1% (+2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 37.3 +2.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.7 +1.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 255.8 +.8%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,396.0 -1.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 26.0 (FEAR) -2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 17.3 +2.7%
  • Vix 19.3 +.5%
  • Total Put/Call .83 -17.0%