Saturday, January 25, 2025

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (GOOG).
  • Had bearish commentary on (WFC).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:  

NewsMax:     

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @GenFlynn
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @WesternLensman
  • @realchrisrufo
  • @matt_vanswol
  • @JimFergusonUK
  • @WarClandestine
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @MarioNawfal
  • SHOCKING CIA DOC REVEALS US MILITARY'S PLOT TO KILL AMERICANS. A declassified CIA document reveals that in the 1960s, the US military planned Operation Northwoods, which involved committing acts of terrorism against American citizens to justify a war with Cuba. The plot included proposals like creating a 'Communist Cuban terror campaign' in US cities and even suggested killing US soldiers by blowing up a ship in Guantanamo Bay to blame Cuba, aiming to provoke public support for military action against Fidel Castro.
  • TRUMP URGED TO RELEASE EPSTEIN FILES AFTER ORDER TO DECLASSIFY JFK DOCUMENTS. After Trump signed an executive order to release all JFK assassination files, GOP lawmakers are now pushing him to declassify the Jeffrey Epstein files. Sen. Marsha Blackburn and Rep. Tim Burchett are demanding the release of Epstein’s flight logs, Ghislaine Maxwell’s “little black book,” and prison footage from his death. Blackburn: “Americans deserve to know exactly who was affiliated with Epstein’s network.” Trump has previously suggested he is open to reexamining Epstein’s case.
  • @wideawake_media
  • @nicksortor
  • @MikeBenzCyber
  • @DC_Draino
  • Lisa Murkowski was appointed by her governor daddy to the Senate. She voted with Obama 72.3% of the time in 2013. She opposed Brett Kavanaugh for SCOTUS but supported Kentanji Brown. She voted to convict Trump in his 2nd impeachment. She’s lost 2 GOP primaries and been censured by the Alaska Republican Party. She confirmed Lloyd Austin but not Pete Hegseth. Lisa Murkowski is a Democrat.
  • @DerrickEvans4WV
  • @liz_churchill10
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @christianbrits
  • @TomFitton
  • @IGSquawk 
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:

Friday, January 24, 2025

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,101.2 +2.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 44,397.2 +2.9%
  • NASDAQ 19,927.3 +3.0%
  • Russell 2000 2,310.4 +1.9%
  • NYSE FANG+ 13,804.3 +5.3%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 207.9 +3.8%
  • Wilshire 5000 60,686.6 +2.6%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,178.9 +3.2%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,909.6 +2.0%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 852.6 +1.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 257.3 -.24%
  • NYSE Technology 5,667.9 +4.2%
  • Transports 16,608.5 +.1%
  • Utilities 1,014.0 +.19%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 122.88 +2.0%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 42.9 +2.5%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 218.3 +1.2%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 116.78 +.6%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 537,856 +.8%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.9 +9.2
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 400 +348
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -31.4 -20.5%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 306,291 +9.6%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,896,350 -3.2%
  • Total Put/Call .73 +2.9%
  • OEX Put/Call .87 -22.5%
  • ISE Sentiment 173.0 -7.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .81 -13.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 74.9 +2.7%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .89 +17.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.72 +9.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.9 -9.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .38 -57.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 11.9 -17.9%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.0 -12.8%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.1 -9.2%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,691.3 +.63%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  86.1 +15.9
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.903 Trillion +.61%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$3.168 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 43.4 +70.9%
  • AAII % Bears 29.4 -27.6%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 51.0 (NEUTRAL) +14.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 309.4 -.9%
  • Crude Oil 74.6/bbl. -5.1%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 204.7 -3.1%
  • Natural Gas 4.03 -6.0%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.7 euros/megawatt-hour +4.9%
  • Heating Oil 251.5 -3.6% 
  • Newcastle Coal 117.0 (1,000/metric ton) +.8%
  • Gold 2,774.4 +2.6%
  • Silver 30.7 +.99%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 452.7 -.5%
  • Copper 431.4 -2.7%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 344.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
  • CME Lumber  566.5 -5.7%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,477.0 +3.0%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 263.5 USD/Short Ton +3.3%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +2.99% +27.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.8% -.8 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.84 +25.1%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 166.9 -29.5%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(78 of 500 reporting) +16.6% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.56 n/a:  Growth Rate +15.3% n/a, P/E 22.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.28% -5.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +97.6% n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 398.99 n/a: Growth Rate +27.6% n/a, P/E 34.8 n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.1 -12.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -3.1 +16.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.3 +3.7 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply .5%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 99.5%(+.6 percentage point) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 1/29
  • US Dollar Index 107.4 -1.4%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,740.2 +.72%
  • Bitcoin/USD 106,215.5 +2.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.6 +1.9%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 35.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.62% -1.0 basis point
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.786 Trillion -.04%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.812 Billion +11.1%
  • Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $.247 Billion -81.5%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.0 -4.2%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 209.3 -6.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 109.0 -2.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.7 -1.1%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 54.7 -4.7%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 175.6 -6.7%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 86.7 -5.2%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.7 -9.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.0 -.4%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 109.3 +3.0%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +4.0% -10.0 basis points
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.5% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.5% +10.0 basis points
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.2% -10.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.83% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% +2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.23% +1.0 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 3.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.0 -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.5 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 47.92 -1.8%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 177.0 +40.5
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 165.0 -31.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.4 -2.5%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 143.9 -2.7%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 156.2 -4.2%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 135.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 609.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .42 -2.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +3.7% +60.0 basis points
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,157.0B +1.0%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 213,500 +.4%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 49.7 +15.5%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.02% -8.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 224,600 +.09%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.2% +20.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -3.0% -22.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $139.3M -53.4%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.13/gallon +.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 824.0 -16.5%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,444.7/40 ft Box -10.6%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,505.1 -3.4%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.5 -16.7%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 62.9 -11.1%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 283,703 +6.7%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,158,157 +11.3%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth +3.2%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Mid-Cap Value +1.2%
Leading Sectors
  • Disk Drives +6.5%
  • Networking +6.1%
  • AI/Robotics +5.9%
  • I-Banks +5.4%
  • Digital Health +5.2%
Lagging Sectors
  • Oil Service -1.3%
  • Shipping -1.4%
  • Alt Energy -1.6%
  • Energy -1.6%
  • Homebuilding -2.0%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (29)
  • BKSY, TWLO, MIDD, DAN, CUBI, HIMX, PSIX, SERV, OKLO, NVO, NNE, GRAL, SEI, GRND, GRAL, BAND, NBIS, IBKR, NEE, DEO, LUNR, EWTX, SSB, DOCN, EH, ETON, HMY, CIB and BEP
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (8)
  • AGYS, MHK, AGX, PVY, FTAI, CF, TXN and SMLR
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Profit-Taking, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +680 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +16 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +110 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my financial/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long