Stocks Lower into Final Hour on a Less Dovish Post-Election Fed, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Selling, Telecom/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.60 USD/Metric Tonne -.02%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.2 euros/megawatt-hour +6.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.7 +.7 point
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 1.8 +4.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.3 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(112 of 500 reporting) +10.6% -.5 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.83 +.05:  Growth Rate +15.4% unch., P/E 22.0 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +97.6% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 400.11 +.17: Growth Rate +28.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.1 -.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.80 +14.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 32.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.27% -91.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.0% +.2 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.83% unch.: CPI YoY +2.85% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 56.0% (+7.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 46.3%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -69 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +86 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +115 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs and index hedges
  
• Disclosed Trades: None
  
• Market Exposure:75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -1.9% 2) REITs -1.7% 3) Banks -1.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FTAI, CARR, KRC, VBTX, GD, SMG, BXP, PII, MNRO, DDOG, AX, VSCO, MSCI, NVDA, PFS, LII, ASH, CVLT, PKG, DHR, NEP, ASTS, LC and MANH
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NEP 2) NOK 3) SBUX 4) ALK 5) NDAQ
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MANH 2) DHR 3) MRNA 4) LC 5) GSAT
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) GDX 3) XLK 4) IYW 5) XLP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value unch.
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Restaurant +2.4% 2) Education +1.9% 3) Computer Hardware +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NXT, EAT, CGEM, FFIV, CLMT, SYNA, BE, TMCI, FNA, LRN, MLYS, SBUX, CAVA, MESO, SLGN, HAFC, TMUS, BHF, LB, SEI, PAM, HSIC, CLS, AKRO, GPCR, GDS, PSIX, NNE, ASML, CSGS, COHR, TLN, MTZ, FLR, NSC and LOGI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LC 2) HNRG 3) TMUS 4) MATV 5) COMM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) EAT 2) FFIV 3) NXT 4) SHCO 5) LRN
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) IGV 3) XLI 4) VGT 5) AMLP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (FLWS)/1.20
• (MO)/1.24
• (AVY)/2.38
• (BC)/.17
• (CAH)/1.77
• (CRS)/1.61
• (CAT)
• (CMCSA)/.86
• (DOW)/.24
• (IP)/-.07
• (LHX)/3.42
• (MA)/3.69
• (MBLY)/.11
• (NOC)/6.35
• (OSK)/2.17
• (PH)/6.24
• (PHM)/3.26
• (DGX)/2.19
• (SHW)/2.06
• (SIRI)/.66
• (LUV)/.46
• (STM)/.35
• (CI)/7.82
• (TMO)/5.94
• (TSCO)/.45
• (UPS)/2.53
• (VLO)/.07
  

After the Close: 

• (AAPL)/2.35
• (BKR)/.62
• (BZH)/.31
• (BOOT)/2.34
• (CLS)/1.05
• (DECK)/2.58
• (INTC)/.12
• (KLAC)/7.75
• (SKYW)/1.79
• (X)/-.11
• (V)/2.66
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• 4Q GDP QoQ is estimated to rise +2.6% versus a +3.1% gain in 3Q.
• 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +3.2% versus a +3.7% gain in 3Q.
• The 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +2.5% versus a +1.9% gain in 3Q.
• The 4Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ is estimated to rise +2.5% versus a +2.2% gain in 3Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 225K versus 223K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1902K versus 1899K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for Dec. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +2.2% gain in Nov.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB meeting, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (POST) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.5 +.7
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 47.4% of Issues Advancing, 49.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .74 -32.7%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$101.6M
  
• 95 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 56.2% (+.04%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.7 +2.1
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 73.2 +1.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 258.8 -.12%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,101.7 -1.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 47.0 (NEUTRAL) +3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 14.5 +7.4%
  
• Vix 16.9 +2.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .82 +10.8%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @MarioNawfal

• NYC LOCALS STUNNED AS TRUMP’S ICE RAIDS NAB VIOLENT MIGRANT GANG MEMBER. New Yorkers were shocked to learn that Anderson Zambrano-Pacheco, an alleged Tren de Aragua gang leader, was living in their Bronx building—right across from an elementary school. The 25-year-old illegal migrant, wanted in Colorado for kidnapping, burglary, and menacing, was arrested as part of Trump’s sweeping immigration crackdown.
• REPORT: NGOs EMERGE AS "SHADOW GOVERNMENT" WITH 55,000 ORGANIZATIONS. Fractal technology maps previously hidden connections between 55,000 liberal NGOs, revealing how tax dollars allegedly flow through major institutions like Vanguard and Morgan Stanley to groups like the Chinese Progressive Association. This breakthrough tracking system can now monitor "every dollar going to every NGO," exposing intricate funding webs that traditional tech couldn't detect.

• @nicksortor

• WTF? The LA government is forcing fire victims to sit in line for over FIVE HOURS to be given a “pass” to visit their homes. This is insane. Trump called out Mayor Bass for this, and she LIED saying it wasn’t happening. LET THEM IN, MAYOR BASS! (video)

• @matt_vanswol

• #BREAKING: President Trump has signed a new executive order to fast-track the repair of ALL roads and bridges in Western North Carolina. The executive order also demands that FEMA and the Secretary of Transportation repair EVERY private bridge that was destroyed. WHAT?!!!!!!! (video)
  

• @disclosetv
  

• NOW - Drones flying over New Jersey were authorized by the Biden FAA: "This was not the enemy." (video)
  

• @WallStreetApes

• BREAKING! Just days ago Donald Trump EXPOSED that California Governor Gavin Newsom has been purposely withholding water from California farm land, the land is some of the best land for farming in our entire country. TRUMP JUST SENT THE MILITARY TO TURN THE WATER BACK ON. (pic)

• @BehizyTweets
  

• BREAKING: Senator Ted Cruz just established an official investigation into Panama's violation of the Canal Treaty, which would give President Trump the green light to retake it by any means necessary. "President Trump is making a serious and substantive argument that that treaty is being violated. Right now, this committee has jurisdiction under the Senate rules over the Panama Canal, and today, we will examine evidence of potential violations." "Panama has emerged as a bad actor. Panama has for years flagged dozens of vessels in the Iranian ghost fleet, which brought Iran tens of billions of dollars in oil profits to fund terror across the world. And Chinese companies have won contracts, often without fair competition."
• President Trump's White House just launched a Rapid Response Unit to combat fake news in real time. This is what we didn't have in 2017. The media was allowed to lie without any response, but now they can't. This special unit will quench hoaxes before they spread like wildfire.

• @JordanSchachtel

• Caroline Kennedy's 2023 financial disclosure shows that she holds a significant position in Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly & Co, and Johnson & Johnson. Perhaps the childhood stories from 50 years ago are just ugly smears to stop him from reforming U.S. healthcare? (video)

• @ShadowofEzra 

• Bill Gates now alleges that Jeffrey Epstein blackmailed and threatened him over an alleged "affair." Gates claims their meetings were solely to discuss global health philanthropy and admits it was "foolish and stupid" to spend any time with Epstein. As Trump vows to release Epstein's client list, Gates is suddenly positioning himself as a victim. (video)

• @Inevitablewest
  

• BREAKING: German patriots march streets chanting ‘those who hate Germany must leave Germany!” The AfD must win in February. (video)

• @DC_Draino

• ABSOLUTELY MASSIVE ARMY OF DUMP TRUCKS IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA!!!! WHERE WAS THIS FOR 4 MONTHS?!!!!!! THE CALVARY HAS ARRIVED!!!!!!!! I truly believe Biden was torturing North Carolina residents for not voting for Democrats. (video)

• @Artemisfornow
  

• SOLAR - Those advocating for solar where it’s hot and dry pay attention. Globally, it’s estimated that over 10 billion gallons of fresh water is used annually to clean solar panels, about enough to supply drinking water for up to 2 million people. Oh. (video)
  

• @RobbyStarbuck

• This is incredible. The Biden administration let the whole country freak out for weeks about drones and a possible drone threat when they approved the damn drones. Why did they help create panic instead of telling the truth and calming people down? Lunacy. (video)

• @toobaffled

• mRNA has reached the Pork Industry. (video)

• @RWMaloneMD

• Italy leaving the WHO.

• @JDunlap1974

• No wonder Liz Cheney was issued a preemptive pardon: Liz Cheney is being referred for prosecution! Tampering with witness (Cassidy Hutchinson) & attempting to influence her testimony. This is a federal crime with a penalty of up to 20 years prison. Report also states Jack Smith colluded with the J6 committee. (video)

• @Liz_churchill10

• The FBI is investigating the Ukraine AID worth over $200B. “It’s a hub for Child Trafficking, Money Laundering and Biological Labs because Victoria Nuland has said this…and now you see these Ukrainian Officials buy these houses…” -General Flynn.

• @wideawake_media
  

• A bus covered in wanted posters of Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, Anthony Fauci and others was seen driving around Washington DC. (video)

• @SteveLovesAmmo

• This is a movement that will change Conservatism forever. Are you tired of RINOS in office like Crenshaw, Cornyn, Collins, Murkowski, McConnell etc.? We are too. A new organization set to be launched, called the RINO Removal Project will hold politicians accountable or they WILL be removed from office. (pic)

• @glennbeck
  

• @AGAndrewBailey hints that Missouri may prosecute Dr. Fauci for COVID crimes, despite Biden’s pardon: “At the end of the day, the federal government can’t pardon individuals for offenses under the STATE law…All options are on the table here in the state of Missouri." (video)
• DON’T DOWNLOAD CHINA'S DEEPSEEK AI. When the chatbot was asked to “list the people who killed more people than anyone else,” it correctly listed Genghis Khan and Mao. But then it DELETED its answer without being prompted to. When asked why, it gaslit that it never mentioned Genghis Khan and Mao. (video)

• @ValerieAnne1970

• There Are No Cases Of Autism In The Amish Community. You Won't Find Kids With ADD, Autoimmune Disease, PANDAS, PANS or Epilepsy. There Is No Cancer, Diabetes or Asthma. You Don't Find Any Of These Chronic Diseases In The Amish. The US Gov't has been studying the Amish for decades, but they've never released the report. The reason no report has been released to the public is because it would show....

• @RWMaloneMD

• Kenyan government now going after Bill Gates. (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• No way did Donald Trump Jnr just call out Bill Gates publicly & his active attempts to sabotage RFK Jnr from becoming Director of Health. It’s so over for Billy Boy. (pic)
  

• @CollinRugg
  

• Singer Avery starts crying, says she has been diagnosed with a bone-thinning disease from Ozempic, begs her followers not to take the drug. She says she has osteoporosis & osteopenia after taking the drug to lose weight. “Please use me as an example.” (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.25 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 54.75 -1.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.8 +1.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.0 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.12%.

• S&P 500 futures -.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.