Tuesday, February 04, 2025

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Utilities -.7% 2) Foods -.3% 3) Pharma -.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ENR, BRBR, PNR, J, ADM, WTW, D, PEP, INGR, ILMN, ELF, MRNA, BALL, CLX, UBS, KKR, MRK, GHRS, FN, PYPL, SYNA, PINC, EL and ATKR
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MLCO 2) PCT 3) MTCH 4) EL 5) PYPL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ATKR 2) MRK 3) PINC 4) MRNA 5) CLX
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) VGT 2) PAVE 3) AIQ 4) XLF 5) XLI

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Social Media +3.4% 2) Disk Drives +3.4% 3) Energy +2.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • PLTR, BKSY, ETNB, AOSL, SGML, SPOT, PJT, SWTX, MP, KREF, ORIC, XPEV, CLS, HONE, PDD, OPFI, SSYS, STOK, ATI, AXTA, FRO, RMBS, TMCI, MPC, ETON, RACE, LI, SUPN, ASH, BIDU, PARR, BILI, CVE, ASTS, IMNM, CRDO, FIVN, XYL, HIMS, TNK, SIMO, REGN, DCTH, BERY, SHAK, CMI, RDW, LPG, BABA, ARVN, VLO, PII, VKTX, KD, FOXA, INTA, FOX, ENPH, STLA, ENPH, MUR, EQNR, DHT, RSI, AMD, ECO, PSIX, BZH, CNQ, RGTI, ROAD, PENN, STM, PSIX, TCBI, INMD, SILV, GEL, SNAP, SNOW and PSLV
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) EL 2) MAG 3) PRMW 4) ALLT 5) SYF
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PLTR 2) SPOT 3) LANC 4) SMCI 5) ATI
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) IGV 2) ITB 3) XOP 4) SOXX 5) XHB
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BSX)/.66
  • (BG)/2.24
  • (EMR)/1.28
  • (FI)/2.48
  • (GSK)/.49
  • (HOG)/-.66
  • (ITW)/2.49
  • (JCI)/.73
  • (ODFL)/1.16
  • (SWK)/1.27
  • (TROW)/2.19
  • (UBER)/.50
  • (DIS)/1.45
  • (YUM)/1.60
After the Close: 
  • (AFL)/1.62
  • (ALGN)/2.45
  • (ALL)/6.27
  • (ARM)/.34
  • (AVB)/2.83
  • (COHR)/.69
  • (F)/.34
  • (FORM)/.29
  • (MCK)/8.00
  • (MET)/2.11
  • (MSTR)/-.09
  • (NTGR)/-.24
  • (NWSA)/.31
  • (ORLY)/9.75
  • (STE)/2.32
  • (VKTX)/-.27
Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

  • The ADP Employment Change for Jan. is estimated to rise to 150K versus 122K in Dec. 

8:30 am EST

  • The Trade Balance for Dec. is estimated to widen to -$96.8B versus -$78.2B in Nov.

10:00 am EST

  • The ISM Services Index for Jan. is estimated at 54.0 versus 54.0 in Dec.
  • ISM Services Prices Paid for Jan. is estimated to rise to 65.1 versus 64.4 in Dec.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,720,400 barrels versus a +3,463,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -350,400 barrels versus a +2,957,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,079,600 barrels versus a -4,994,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.18% versus a -2.4% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Jefferson speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q update, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the Guggenheim SMID Cap Biotech Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +14.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.8 -1.3
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 68.9% of Issues Advancing, 28.9% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.08 +10.2%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$64.3M
  • 51 New 52-Week Highs, 42 New Lows
  • 54.9% (+2.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 58.2 +1.6
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.3 +3.1%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 256.6 +.9%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,148.4 +.7%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 38.0 (FEAR) -6.0
  • 1-Day Vix 12.9 -29.6%
  • Vix 17.1 -8.1%
  • Total Put/Call .84 -6.4%

Monday, February 03, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg: 

Zerohedge: 

The Wall Stree Journal:
Fox News:
Newsmax:  
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @GuntherEagleman
  • @ChristianHeiens
  • @Bubblebathgirl
  • @MarioNawful
  • MIKE BENZ: TRUMP PROSECUTORS WERE FUNDED BY USAID. “This push to prosecute Trump by Alvin Bragg, Soros was a minor co-funder. He gave them $10,000, that's it! The $14 million he gave to the parent company, the fiscal sponsor of FJP (Fair and Just Prosecution, a nonprofit that supports and influences progressive prosecutors in the U.S.), well, that ain't shit compared to the $27 million that USAID gave them. Every time you hear the word Soros prosecutor, no, they’re USAID prosecutors.” (video)
  • ELON: "OUTRAGEOUS" THAT U.S. TAX DOLLARS FUNDED COVID DEVELOPMENT IN WUHAN LAB. "It's pretty outrageous that the COVID virus was developed in a lab in Wuhan and yet was funded by U.S. tax dollars, which was simply routed through this sort of fake nonprofit EcoHealth because the U.S. government can't give directly to China. So our U.S. tax dollars were used effectively to, in the end, kill Americans, which is insane."
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @SaiKate108
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +2.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.0 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 55.25 -1.75 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.1 +1.3%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.9 -1.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.27%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.22%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.33%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Escalating US Trade Tensions, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.7 +7.9%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.48 -1.0%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.3 -4.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.1 -.9%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.8 +4.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.4 +8.1% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 -4.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .91 +4.6%
  • NYSE Arms .86 -43.8%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$145.0M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.0 +.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 284.7 +.8%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 169 +3
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.2 +2.7%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 145.5 +2.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.7 +4.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 160.0 -.08%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 85.4 +.8%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.9 +.06%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.75 basis points -.75 basis point
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 5.0 basis points +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 137.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 607.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 46.0 +2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.2%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.20 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 53.8 euros/megawatt-hour +1.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 16.8 +7.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 1.6 +1.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.5 +7.0 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(181 of 500 reporting) +7.8% -4.7 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.54 -.20:  Growth Rate +15.9% +.5 percentage point, P/E 21.8 -.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% -9.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +17.2% -9.3 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 402.67 +2.47: Growth Rate +30.2% +2.2 percentage points, P/E 33.3 -.4
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.80 -1.0 basis point
  • US Yield Curve 28.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.89% +62.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.0% -2.3 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.52% -31.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.85% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 +7.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 65.4% (+4.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 44.6%(-2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +350 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +8 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long