Friday, February 07, 2025

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,024.0 -.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 44,333.0 -.5%
  • NASDAQ 19,523.2 -.6%
  • Russell 2000 2,279.9 -.43%
  • NYSE FANG+ 13,588.4 +.3%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 203.12 +.91%
  • Wilshire 5000 59,978.2 -.3%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,107.4 -.39%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,902.4 -.23%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 883.19 +1.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 251.01 -2.5%
  • NYSE Technology 5,670.3 +1.0%
  • Transports 16,298.2 -1.0%
  • Utilities 997.88 -.2%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 128.0 +2.8%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 43.3 +1.2%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 217.7 -.3%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 116.5 -.6%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 540,993 +.15%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.1 -2.3%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 337 +18
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -30.5 +4.5%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 264,126 -11.6%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,782,462 -4.5%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -8.1%
  • OEX Put/Call .80 -14.1%
  • ISE Sentiment 177.0 +36.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .72 -64.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.7 -1.0%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 unch.
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.78 -1.0 basis point
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.5 -4.3%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.23 -17.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 13.6 +4.5%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.7 +3.8%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.4 unch.
  • Smart Money Flow Index 20,744.3 -1.7%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  84.9 +16.6
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.917 Trillion +.64%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$5.997 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 33.3 -18.8%
  • AAII % Bears 42.9 +26.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 42.0 (FEAR) -9.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 307.5 +.4%
  • Crude Oil 70.9/bbl. -3.7%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 210.54 +1.0%
  • Natural Gas 3.31 +8.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 55.7 euros/megawatt-hour +3.9%
  • Heating Oil 243.4 -.41% 
  • Newcastle Coal 110.5 (1,000/metric ton) -5.5%
  • Gold 2,862.2 +2.3%
  • Silver 31.9 +2.1%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 453.1 +2.0%
  • Copper 459.2 +7.6%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 362.0 USD/Metric Tonne +6.2%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.1 USD/Metric Tonne +2.5%
  • CME Lumber  595.5 +.6%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,493.3 +.5%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 290.0 USD/Short Ton +7.4%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +2.94% +5.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.0% -.3 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.49 -10.8%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 397.8 +54.1%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(308 of 500 reporting) +12.6% +5.2 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.12 -.75:  Growth Rate +15.7% -.3 percentage point, P/E 22.0 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.83% -29.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% +9.4 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 402.86 +1.49: Growth Rate +30.3% +.5 percentage point, P/E 33.7 +.1
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.0 -9.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.7 +5.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.9 +9.2 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 8.5%(-7.5 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 91.5%(+7.5 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 3/19
  • US Dollar Index 108.03 -.4%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,740.1 -.12%
  • Bitcoin/USD 96,869.6 +1.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.8 -2.6%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 20.75 -12.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.49% -6.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.765 Trillion -.1%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $3.466 Billion +22.3%
  • Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $.197 Billion -7.5%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.8 +2.5%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 210.68 -.42%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 unch.
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.2 -1.6%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 54.78 -2.0%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 173.8 -4.0%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 84.8 +.11%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.6 -2.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.96 +.36%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 113.73 +.89%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +4.0% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.5% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.5% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.2% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.52% unch.: CPI YoY +2.85% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.63% +30.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -1.0 basis point -6.0 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.75 -.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 +.25 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 48.5 -.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 182.0 +.6
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 182.0 +7.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.3 -.4%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 142.2 +.2%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 157.7 -1.7%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 136.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 604.0 -4.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .47 +2.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +3.9% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,219.5B +.7%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 216,750 +1.9%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.2 +13.6%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.94% -6.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 224,800 +2.2%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.8% +30.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +3.0% -7.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $87.5M -23.1%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.14/gallon +.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 793.0 +7.9%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,272.5/40 ft Box -2.7%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,415.0 -6.0%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.5 +25.0%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 51.6 -1.8%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 291,551 +9.7%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,211,265 +23.5%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth +2.8%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Mid-Cap Value -.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Education +5.4%
  • Disk Drives +5.2%
  • Social Media +5.1%
  • Gold & Silver +5.1%
  • Video Gaming +4.1%
Lagging Sectors
  • Airlines -1.5%
  • Healthcare Providers -1.5%
  • Retail -2.2%
  • Agriculture -3.3%
  • Homebuilding -6.6%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (55)
  • DOCS, LEU, SWI, AFRM, NET, SERV, PINS, EXPE, VSAT, TTWO, CRNC, PGY, OKLO, NBIS, G, CLSK, EH, DQ, TDOC, MGNI, HIMS, IIIV, GRRR, PRO, FUTU, UBER, EZPW, MPWR, SPIR, POST, ROAD, PONY, IREN, SSNC, DSP, SMR, BYRN, AMRK, LI, MBX, HOOD, SMCI, OPRA, WFRD, PRTH, TEM, LRN, HTHT, BABA, OPRA, TAL, TKO, FTNT, OPFI, AZPN and GDS
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (38)
  • GOOG, PAA, PCTY, MCHP, TYRA, HAE, AMZN, HUBG, TEX, SIMO, BCE, OTEX, APD, DHI, ZBRA, IRS, QNST, SYNA, ULTA, CAMT, CYTK, DNB, DLX, ATR, ILMN, RGA, AVTR, ONTO, SKX, ODD, PLRX, SMTC, WBTN, NBIX, ELF, VREX and BILL
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Escalating Tariff Concerns, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Homebuilding/Biotech Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -267 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CNA)/1.23
  • (HAIN)/.12
  • (INCY)/1.50
  • (MCD)/2.85
  • (ON)/.97
  • (ROK)/1.58
  • (TSEM)/.53
After the Close: 
  • (ALAB)/.26
  • (CXW)/.34
  • (LSCC)/.19
  • (VRTX)/4.01
  • (VNO)/.49
Economic Releases

11:00 am EST

  • The NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for Jan.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The CB Employment Trends Index for Jan., Mich. Inflation Expectations YoY for Jan., BofA Financial Services Conference, Stifel Transport/Logistics Conference, UBS Financial Services Conference, BTIG MedTech/Digital Health/Life Science/Diagnostic Tools Conference and the Oppenheimer Healthcare Life Sciences Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, February 06, 2025

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk  
  • @BasedMikeLee
  • @ChuckCallesto
  • BREAKING NOW: Federal Judge LIMITS DOGE access to "sensitive" Treasury Department payment system records... WHAT ARE THEY HIDING? This is what panic from Democrat crooks and thieves looks like.
  • @nicksortor  
  • @bennyjohnson
  • This is the biggest scandal in news media history: No employee at Politico got paid yesterday. First time ever the company missed a pay period. This is a crisis. Now we learn Politico — a “news company” — which spent the last 10 years trying to destroy the MAGA Movement was being massively funded by USAID. Trump & Elon deleted their funding. Now Politico will go out of business. The corruption is endless. Good riddance. (pic)
  • @BRICSInfo
  • @WallStreetApes
  • Another Democrat lie exposed. “Illegal aliens in this country did not pay $95 billion in taxes, not even Federal and State combined”. - Federal expenditures was $66 billion. - Illegal aliens in this country only paid $16 billion. - They netted $50 billion in federal benefits. State and local expenditures: - They cost the taxpayers $115 billion. - They only paid in $15 billion to state and local tax. “So they are costing, the national total expenditure is $182 billion, and they're only paying into the system $31 billion. They cost our country $150.7 billion in 2023 alone. (video)
  • @catturd2
  • @MdBreathe
  • @Liz_Churchill10
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • @MarioNawful
  • @TiffMoodNukes
  • I don’t wanna hear another peep outta Democrats who are having petulant child tantrums over accountability. Their salaries are between $174K-$400K yet their net worths are in multitudes of millions. Audit them all, D.O.G.E. •Ilhan Omar net worth $83M •Chuck Schumer net worth $75M •Elizabeth Warren net worth $73M •Adam Schiff $60M •Jamie Raskin net worth $20M •Hakeem Jeffries $17M •Cory Booker net worth $14M •Jasmine Crockett net worth $10M.
  • @VigilantNews
  • @KariLake
  • @MarcNixon24
  • @ChemChasers
  • @Beard_Vet
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.5 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 56.25 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 -.11%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.3 +1.0%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.5 +.09%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.35%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Construction/Road & Rail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.5 -2.0%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .32 -56.3%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.4 +1.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 175.5 -1.0%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.5 -.8%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 12.6 +2.5% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 194.0 +42.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .79 -1.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 -28.8%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$39.0M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.0 +.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 283.8 +.3%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 177 +3
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.9 -1.3%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 142.0 -.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 107.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.8 -2.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 158.0 +.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 84.8 -.7%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.96 +.2%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread .5 basis point +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.5 +1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 136.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 606.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 47.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.2%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.20 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 54.5 euros/megawatt-hour +2.0%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.7 -2.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.2 +7.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.7 +2.7 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(293 of 500 reporting) +12.2% +.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 273.94 +.02:  Growth Rate +15.6% unch., P/E 22.2 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.87% -4.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +19.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 401.91 unch.: Growth Rate +30.0% unch., P/E 34.2 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.74 -2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 22.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.89% -99.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.5% -.6 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.52% unch.: CPI YoY +2.85% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 62.2% (+3.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 45.8%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -125 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -35 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +70 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long