Tuesday, February 11, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk   
  • @BelannF
  • @nicksortor
  • They told us FEMA had NO money for Americans on Maui. NO money for Americans in East Palestine, Ohio. NO money for Americans in Western North Carolina. BUT FEMA HAD AN EXTRA $1 BILLION TO SPEND ON ILLEGALS?? WTF? This is CRIMINAL! (video)
  • @matt_vanswol
  • @JimFergusonUK
  • @MarioNawful
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @gatewaypundit
  • @WideAwakeMedia
  • @catturd2
  • @TaraBull808
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @WarClandestine
  • @JackPosobiec
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @CRRJA5
  • @elonmusk IN A NUTSHELL. HE CRACKED IT, FOLKS. We are taxed. Taxes go to USAID. Leftists create a NGO. NGO is funded by USAID. Leftists in NGO do 0 real work. NGO pays Leftists huge salaries. Leftists donate salaries from NGO to Dems. It's why Dems are freaking over Trump & Elon killing USAID.
  • @buenoForMiami
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.25 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 50.25 -3.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 73.8 +.7%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.5 -.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.19%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Fed's Powell Commentary, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Dollar Weakness, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.0 +1.2%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .46 -2.5%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 73.7 +1.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 176.5 +.8%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.34 -1.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.2 -2.3% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 169.0 +14.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .80 +3.9%
  • NYSE Arms .95 -12.0%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$188.2M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.0 +.14%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 290.0 -.06%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 184.0 +7
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.80 +.08%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 141.8 -.11%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.74 -.75%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 157.2 +.01%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 88.2 +3.7%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.04 +.13%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -.75 basis point +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 134.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 603.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 47.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.15 +.10%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 57.8 euros/megawatt-hour -.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index .7 -1.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.6 +1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.1 -1.6 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(326 of 500 reporting) +12.0% -.4 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.91 +.06:  Growth Rate +16.0% unch., P/E 22.0 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.85% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 404.18 +.38: Growth Rate +30.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.9 -.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.70 -4.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 24.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.94% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.8% -.1 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.52% unch.: CPI YoY +2.85% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 78.3% (+6.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 49.0%(+2.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +301 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +16 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +153 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -1.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -3.9% 2) Digital Health -2.6% 3) Networking -2.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • EVR, HESM, TGS, SWTX, CFLT, CLF, BIDU, LYFT, LDOS, UTI, CG, MAR, HLNE, EDN, AES, ERO, MEDP, MITK, GGAL, CDNA, IPGP, ARVN, ALAB, SMCI, DOCS, HUM, AMKR, APGE, PGY, FIS, ACLS, PSFE and CMCO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) TKO 2) CNC 3) FLNC 4) AMKR 5) DASH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FLNC 2) TTOO 3) NGL 4) ACKS 5) VSAT
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) KRE 3) XLI 4) XHB 5) GDX

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Energy +1.7% 2) Computer Services +1.1% 3) Regional Banks +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • GDS, TVTX, BHVN, ZIM, SOC, INTC, LSCC, EDU, DD, TIMB, PZZA, GOLF, ECL, NNN, BZH, JAZZ, HSAI, CENX, GFS, PSX, MAGN, FMC, CTLP, CINF, EZPW, NSP, YETI, BRX, TTMI, BTU, ON, MATX, KO, AXSM, MRC, SPGI, LCII and CRSR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) MAR 2) SLQT 3) GT 4) FIVE 5) FLNC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LIPO 2) SLQT 3) LSCC 4) DD 5) INTC
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XOP 2) XLV 3) XLE 4) XLP 5) XLK
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BIIB)/3.35
  • (CHEF)/.51
  • (CME)/2.45
  • (CVS)/.91
  • (D)/.56
  • (EXC)/.59
  • (GNRC)/2.53
  • (KHC)/.78
  • (MLM)/4.60
  • (R)/3.38
  • (SAH)/1.46
  • (SPTN)/.32
  • (THC)/2.95 
  • (VRT)/.82
  • (WAT)/4.03
After the Close: 
  • (ALB)/-.69
  • (APP)/1.25
  • (CSCO)/.91
  • (CGNX)/.15
  • (CW)/3.08
  • (EQIX)/8.12
  • (HUBS)/2.19
  • (MGM)/.32
  • (NBR)/-1.60
  • (PEGA)/1.47
  • (QTWO)/.48
  • (RDDT)/.25
  • (HOOD)/.41
  • (RGLD)/1.52
  • (TTD)/.57
  • (WMB)/.46
  • (WH)/.99
  • (CAMT)/.75
  • (DNUT)/.10
  • (OC)/2.91
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • CPI Annual Revisions.
  • The CPI MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.
  • The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Dec.
  • Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Jan.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +2,515,830 barrels versus a +8,664,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +544,830 barrels versus a +2,233,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,477,500 barrels versus a -5,471,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.17% versus a +1.0% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

  • The Federal Budget Deficit for Jan. is estimated at -$100.0B versus -$86.7B in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell testimony to House, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, 10Y T-Bond auction, OPEC monthly report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for Jan., BofA Financial Services Conference, the (WDC) investor day and the TD Cowen Aerospace/Defense Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +11.1% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 21.0 +2.0
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 47.6% of Issues Advancing, 49.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .94 -13.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$205.9M
  • 47 New 52-Week Highs, 47 New Lows
  • 55.6% (unch.) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 61.4 +2.1
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 73.4 +1.2%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 249.3 -.5%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,246.0 -.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 48.0 (NEUTRAL) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.0 -11.7%
  • Vix 15.8 -.4%
  • Total Put/Call .58 +1.3%