Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +17.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.4 -1.5
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 66.9% of Issues Advancing, 31.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.84 +162.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$156.1M
  
• 75 New 52-Week Highs, 41 New Lows
• 54.8% (+1.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.1 +3.4

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 74.4 -.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.5 +.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,306.5 +.22%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 45.0 (NEUTRAL) +1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.7 -8.6%
  
• Vix 15.6 -1.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .84 unch.

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk   

• As it becomes clear that @DOGE is working, you will see the long-term Treasury bill yields fall. And all Americans will benefit from lower interest payments on mortgages, small business debt, credit card and other loans. 
• Fauci’s net worth surged during Covid and he became a multimillionaire. How???
• USAID: The swamp is deep. One of the activist judges blocking Trump's agenda, Judge John Bates, is married to the founder of a USAID-funded NGO. Carol Rhees is a Democrat lawyer who started Hope for Children in Ethiopia a long-time USAID grant recipient. There needs to be an immediate wave of judicial impeachments, not just one.
• LAWFARE: Before Judge McConnell ordered Trump to restore USAID funding and called him a tyrant he was accused of buying his lifetime judicial appointment. He spent over $700K contributing to Democrats and funneled thousands to his state's two senators who recommended his appointment to Obama. They refused to recuse themselves from his confirmation vote. What a scammer!
• BREAKING — New NARA emails further confirm that the classified documents case against President Trump was a sham prosecution that involved the Biden White House from the start — long before NARA’s official referral of classified documents to DOJ for investigation. Terrible!

• @MikeBenzCyber

• “Established citizens — doctors, attorneys, businessmen, teachers — will be recruited initially as ‘social crusaders’ in typically ‘innocuous’ movements in the area of operations.” More from the formal CIA Rent-a-Riot manual from 1983 declassified in 2017. (video)

• @Mark_R_Mitchell

• Over three times more people in DC are googling "Criminal Defense Lawyer" than anywhere else in the US! (pic)

• @catturd2

• The punishment for being a traitor isn’t getting fired. The punishment for treason isn’t getting fired. The punishment for money laundering and stealing billions isn’t getting fired. The punishment for members of Congress stealing the taxpayers blind to get themselves filthy rich isn’t getting fired and getting a million dollar contract with CNN. Unless all these criminal traitors do hard time in prison - none of this treasonous thievery will stop. We The People demand accountability NOW!

• @JimFergusonUK

• BREAKING: TULSI GABBARD SWORN IN AS DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE – THE SWAMP IS TREMBLING! How the tables have turned! The Biden regime once had Tulsi Gabbard on a domestic terror watch list for daring to challenge the deep state. Now? She’s in charge of U.S. intelligence. Sworn in by AG Pam Bondi in the Oval Office, Gabbard is now the top intelligence official in the country. The same corrupt bureaucrats who smeared her are now answering to her.

• @gaborgurbacs

• Nancy Pelosi Annual salary: $223,000 Net worth: $202 million. Mitch McConnell Annual salary: $200,000 Net worth: $95 million. Chuck Schumer Annual salary: $210,000 Net worth: $75 million. Elizabeth Warren Annual salary: $285,000 Net worth: $67 million. @elonmusk @DOGE.

• @WallStreetApes

• No longer a conspiracy. Tucker Carlson interview with Ken Paxton, Ken is suing General Motors because RIGHT NOW auto manufacturers are tracking everything you do in your car, “tracking all of your driving — they're tracking every turn of your car”. More lawsuits he’s filing are with - META, Mark Zuckerberg is taking and keeping your biometric data without your permission - Google’s incognito mode is NOT incognito, they track and save everything you do - Google controls 97% of the ad market and they destroy the competition and they destroy you if you're small enough, they buy you if you're big enough and they cut a deal if you're super big. And all of that's illegal under antitrust law - He’s suing Pfizer and more…. We are one nation under illegal surveillance. (video)
• BREAKING: Bernie Sanders just voted NO on Tulsi Gabbard today. Here’s Tulsi Gabbard literally STEPPING DOWN as Vice Chair of the DNC for what they did to Bernie Sanders and declaring she supports him for President. The lack of morals from Bernie Sanders is beyond comprehension. (video)
• The Jeffrey Epstein files are FINALLY going to be released in 10 days. 14 Year Old Jeffrey Epstein Victim: “Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell raped me 20-30x at the same time”. She got pregnant by Epstein, got an abortion was then threatened, gang raped, they put a gun to her head and dropped her off naked on her grandparents lawn”. Victim said: “Maxwell coached her how to have sex with men. Destroyed the best years of my life.” (video)

• @MichelleRM68

• Holy crap!! One TRILLION American taxpayer dollars were stolen during the pandemic & 70% PERCENT of that money went overseas. This is unreal!! (video)

• @ElectionWiz

• NEW: Explosive Details Emerge About 2023 Chinese Spy Balloon Incident.

• @LeadingReport

• BREAKING: Rep. Thomas Massie calls for the FDA to immediately revoke approval of COVID vaccines.

• @BehizyTweets

• JUST IN: President Trump just seized more than $80 MILLION from New York City's bank account that would've been used to house illegal aliens. The money came from FEMA. ARRESTS NEED TO BE MADE.
• BREAKING: Elon Musk has told people close to him that he will spend the next four months working 24/7 on DOGE to cut up to $2 TRILLION from the federal budget. He is going all in and even sleeps in his White House office - Per Fox Business. God bless this guy. 
• Speaker Mike Johnson said he met with Elon Musk & more BOMBSHELL findings are coming. "What Elon and the DOGE effort is doing right now is what Congress has been unable to do in recent years because the agencies have hidden some of this from us." "They're uncovering things that we have known intuitively have been there, but we couldn't prove it. Now, the proof is being provided, and no one can argue the counter to that. So stay tuned. There's a lot more to come." (video)

• @Officer_Lew 

• BREAKING: Marc Fogel, recently freed after spending 4 years in a Russian prison, is greeted by President Trump at the White House. (video)

• @WarClandestine

• HOLY SHIT! Joe is starting to flirt with the big secret! Joe asks Mike Benz how he feels about the “darkest of all conspiracy theories”, that C19 was released intentionally! After indirectly discussing USAID Project PREDICT, Benz essentially says that the US funded the creation of the pathogen, and funded the global media propaganda campaign to cover up the fact that it was man-made, and that we are welcome to draw our own conclusions based on this information. Joe is starting to creep dangerously close to my wheelhouse. (video)

• @CartlandDavid

• Gates is toast! BREAKING: Bill Gates has accountability coming in HOT! “He's been indicted in the Netherlands for lying to the public about the COVID vaccine, and he's going to have to go to trial.” The crowds reaction is PERFECT! (video)

• @sayerjigmi

• BREAKING! The Florida bill to END WEATHER MODIFICATION just PASSED out of committee moments ago in a 6-3 vote! The bill is moving forward!!

• @TheChiefNerd

• @DOGE has saved U.S. taxpayers $84 BILLION and counting in just the first few weeks of Trump’s Presidency. That’s $4 BILLION per day, yet the media will tell you it’s insignificant. (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Bill Gates:- “The things USAID fund - I fund”. Bill Gates isn’t happy about DOGE cutting funding to projects he’s also involved in should tell you all you need to know. (video)

• @IngrahamAngle

• ‘Congress must act. We need laws that make Trump’s executive orders permanent. We should be backing his agenda, not letting judges sabotage it.’ (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.0 -3.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 46.0 -4.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.15%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 75.6 +1.2%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.4 -.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.96%.

• S&P 500 futures +.21%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.46%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Long-Term Rate Surge, Diminished Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.10%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.19%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 55.7 euros/megawatt-hour -3.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.1 +3.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.9 -1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.4 -1.6 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(345 of 500 reporting) +11.5% -.5 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.80 -.11:  Growth Rate +15.9% -.1 percentage point, P/E 22.0 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.86% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 404.09 -.09: Growth Rate +30.7% unch., P/E 34.1 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 unch.
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.68 -2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 26.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.94% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.7% -.1 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% +14.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.81% -4.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 +2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 86.8% (+8.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 67.2%(+16.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +277 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +32 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +245 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/utility sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth unch.

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gambling +1.8% 2) Gold & Silver +1.7% 3) Electric Vehicles +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• UPST, EH, ANAB, CFLT, GRAL, CVS, RDW, VNET, CLMT, PONY, CHEF, SPTN, FUTU, LUCK, GNRC, KSPI, OKLO, BZ, DSP, ST, IRS, CXW, GRRR, GOLD, GFS, BEKE, INTC, GILD, IAC, BILI, PUK, VRNA, HE, MT, ZYME, ASND, ALKS, SWTX, MCY, BABA, TSLA, EW, PGY, HOOD, TPR, BIDU, ABNB, LAD, LEU, HSAI, MAG, GLPG, LQDT, PAX, WGS, LAND, SILV, SMCI, TAL, TCOM, CDNA, IBKR, BXMT, KMT, PZZA, JAZZ, UTHR, DUOL and R

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GRAB 2) GT 3) GPN 4) BEKE 5) UPST

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) UPST 2) NXU 3) CFLT 4) CVS 5) GNS

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) IGF 3) ITB 4) XOP 5) MLPX

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ALNY)/-.54
• (AEP)/1.23
• (CROX)/2.26
• (CYBR)/.72
• (DDOG)/.43
• (DE)/3.11
• (DUK)/1.65
• (GEHC)/1.26
• (GPN)/2.96
• (GVA)/1.21
• (HTZ)/-.69
• (H)/.75
• (IRM)/1.21
• (TAP)/1.13
• (MCO)/2.60
• (PAG)/3.30
• (PPC)/1.15
• (SBH)/.43
• (SN)/1.27
• (WEN)/.24
• (YETI)/.93
• (ZTS)/1.36
  

After the Close: 

• (ABNB)/.58
• (AMAT)/2.28
• (COIN)/1.99
• (DVA)/2.14
• (DLR)/1.72
• (DKNG)/-.16
• (GDDY)/1.44
• (GT)/.30
• (IR)/.84
• (PANW)/.78
• (TWLO)/1.03
• (WYNN)/1.27
• (YELP)/.53
• (RDFN)/-.24
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• PPI Annual Revisions.
• The PPI Final Demand MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Dec.
• The PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in Dec.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 216K versus 219K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1885K versus 1886K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 30Y T-bond auction, IEA Monthly report, Fed's weekly balance sheet rpeort, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the TD Cowen Aerospace/Defense Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +13.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.9 -4.1
• 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
• 19.9% of Issues Advancing, 78.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .44 -53.7%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$315.5M
  
• 33 New 52-Week Highs, 76 New Lows
• 54.0% (-3.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.7 -5.7

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 74.2 +1.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.8 -.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,227.0 +.22%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 44.0 (FEAR) -4.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.2 -20.2%
  
• Vix 16.5 +3.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .84 +3.7%