Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AB)/.78
• (AAL)/-.70
• (BMY)/1.49
• (BC)/.22
• (CRS)/1.74
• (CBRE)/.77
• (DOW)/-.01
• (FCFS)/1.74
• (FCX)/.24
• (FCN)/1.79
• (HAS)/.67
• (LHX)/2.31
• (MRK)/2.14
• (MBLY)/.08
• (NDAQ)/.77
• (PEP)/1.49
• (PG)/1.52
• (LUV)/-.18
• (STRA)/.96
• (TSCO)/.37
• (TPH)/.49
• (UNP)/2.74
• (VLO)/.41
  

After the Close: 

• (AEM)/1.38
• (GOOG)/2.01
• (BYD)/1.51
• (FIX)/3.71
• (EHC)/1.19
• (GILD)/1.75
• (INTC)/.01
• (SKYW)/2.06
• (SSNC)/1.41
• (WY)/.10
• (CARR)/.58
• (BTU)/.04
• (ROK)/2.09
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March is estimated to fall to .12 versus .18 in Feb.
• Durable Goods Orders for March is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a +1.0% gain in Feb.
• Durables Ex Transports for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.7% gain in Feb.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.2% decline in Feb.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 222K versus 215K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1863K versus 1885K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for March is estimated to fall to 4.13M versus 4.26M in Feb.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for April is estimated to fall to -5.0 versus -2.0 in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Hammack speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q update, 7Y note auction, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, IMF meetings, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (AGCO) annual meeting, (PFE) annual meeting, (SAIA) annual meeting, (ARCB) annual meeting, (HCA) annual meeting, (JBHT) annual meeting, (FAST) annual meeting, (MYRG) annual meeting, (JNJ) annual meeting, (GPN) annual meeting and the (BA) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +31.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.4 -3.3
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 77.3% of Issues Advancing, 21.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.73 +121.7%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$37.5M
  
• 21 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
• 28.2% (+9.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.8 +5.0

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.5 +5.0%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 224.5 +2.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,293.6 +.31%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 27.0 (FEAR) +3.0
• 1-Day Vix 29.5 +1.4%
  
• Vix 29.5 -3.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .85 unch.

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• After democrats started arresting Trump's lawyers, the gloves were off. They burned the constitution in order to steal power and lost. Trump must crush the deep state betrayers or the US is lost. Yes.
• “Dr. Anthony Fauci’s fortune doubled — hitting about $15 million — between early 2019 and the end of 2023 over the course of the pandemic, including ‘during the worst of the draconian COVID lockdowns,’’ according to records obtained by a watchdog group. Fauci’s net worth was about $7.6 million in January 2019 before COVID-19 hit and surged to about $15 million by the end of 2023, 141 pages of financial-disclosure forms obtained by watchdog group Open The Books revealed.”
  

• @ZeroHedge

• US Propane Tanker Diverts Chinese Port Call In Latest Warning Sign For China's Plastic Factories.
• How Junk Food Took Hold In The US And What RFK Jr. Is Doing About It.
• Harvard Law School Professors Politicize The Rule Of Law.
• Tesla Misses On Sales, EPS , Slams "Uncertainty" In Automotive Market, But Affirms Affordable Model "Remains On Track" For H1 2025
• Stocks & Bitcoin Pop, Gold Drops As Trump Says "Had No Intention Of Firing" Powell.

• @MarioNawful

• TRUMP: THIS IS THE GOLDEN AGE... CHINA WANTS TO BE A PART OF THAT TOO. “Long time, we've had a very good relationship, and I think we'll make a deal with China. If we don't make a deal, we'll set it. We'll just set the number and, you know, think they'll wanna be a part of The United States. We're talking about the golden age. It will never be a time like this, in my opinion and China wants to be a part of that too.” (video)
• ELON: NO ONE CAN COMPETE WITH TESLA’S AI — WE BUILT IT FROM SCRATCH. "Worth noting that Tesla has both an incredible AI software team and an AI hardware chip design team—from scratch. We didn’t acquire anyone. We just built it. So yeah, it’s really… I mean, I don’t see anyone being able to compete with Tesla at present.”
• SEC. KENNEDY WE ARE SPENDING $1.8T ON CHRONIC DISEASE AND IT’S BANKRUPTING OUR NATION. “They weren’t part of the dialogue. There was zero spent in this country treating chronic disease when my uncle was president. Today, it’s about $1.8 trillion annually—it’s bankrupting our nation. Seventy-four percent of American kids cannot qualify for military service. How are we going to maintain our global leadership with such a sick population?” (video)
• TRUMP: EGG PRICES ARE DOWN 94%— THE FED SHOULD CUT RATES NEXT. "The cost of eggs has come down like 93, 94% since we took office. They’re pretty much normally priced now. A great job—our Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, did a very good job. But groceries have come down. It’s all coming down. The only thing that hasn’t come down—but it hasn’t gone up much—are interest rates, and we think the Fed should lower the rate.” (video)
• ELON COMMITS FULL FOCUS BACK TO TESLA AMID CHALLENGING QUARTER. Elon announced plans to significantly reduce his government efficiency duties and recommit his innovation skills to the electric vehicle pioneer facing temporary headwinds. Elon on the earnings call: "My time allocation to DOGE will drop significantly".
• AUTO INDUSTRY TO TRUMP: "PUMP THE BRAKES ON PARTS TARIFFS". 6 major auto industry groups—yep, the folks behind your favorite car brands—just hit Trump’s inbox with a panic letter. 
• TRUMP: WE’LL SET THE DEAL IF COUNTRIES DON’T COME TO THE TABLE. "And other countries have to make a deal. And if they don’t make a deal, we’ll set the deal—because we’re the ones that set the deal. Scott, Howard, myself, and others—we’re going to be setting the deal. And it’ll be a fair deal for everybody. I think it’s a process that’s going to go pretty quickly.”

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.25 -6.5 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 65.75 -4.0 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.87 -.67%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 53.9 +.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.36% -4.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.7 -3.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.53%. 
• S&P 500 futures +1.54%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.72%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Higher into Final Hour on Global Trade Deal Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Homebuilding/Financial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.03% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.39% -2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.2 euros/megawatt-hour -4.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -20.2 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -6.9 -3.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.9 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(81 of 500 reporting) +6.1% -.7 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.97 -.24:  Growth Rate +12.3% -.1 percentage point, P/E 19.2 +.6
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% -2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +23.7% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.10 +.24: Growth Rate +20.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 26.7 +.9
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.67 -20.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.22 +55.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 12.7 unch.
• US Yield Curve 58.0 basis points (2s/10s) -7.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.2% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.1% -1.8 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% unch.: CPI YoY +2.38% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.22 +9.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +4.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 59.9% (-3.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 50.5%(-8.8 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +655 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +50 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +299 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (APH)/.52
• (T)/.53
• (AVY)/2.31
• (BA)/-1.26
• (BSX)/.67
• (CHKP)/2.19
• (CME)/2.80
• (GEV)/.45
• (GD)/3.50
• (LAD)/7.81
• (COOP)/2.90
• (NEE)/.97
• (NSC)/2.66
• (ODFL)/1.14
• (PM)/1.61
• (R)/2.41
• (TDY)/4.92
• (TMO)/5.10
• (VRT)/.61
• (WFRD)/.86
  

After the Close: 

• (ALK)/-.77
• (CACI)/5.61
• (CSL)/3.42
• (CMG)/.28
• (DFS)/3.37
• (IBM)/1.42
• (KNX)/.24
• (LRCX)/1.00
• (LVS)/.58
• (MTH)/1.69
• (MOH)/5.97
• (NEM)/.90
• (OII)/.30
• (ORLY)/9.86
• (RJF)/2.45
• (RS)/3.64
• (RHI)/.36
• (NOW)/3.83
• (RTXN)/1.07
• (URI)/8.78
• (WHR)/1.70
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for April is estimated to fall to 49.0 versus 50.2 in March.
• S&P Global US Services PMI for April is estimated to fall to 52.5 versus 54.4 in March.
• S&P Global US Composite PMI for April is estimated to fall to 52.2 versus 53.5 in March.
  

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for March is estimated to rise to 685K versus 676K in Feb.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,690,230 barrels versus a +515,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,407,670 barrels versus a -1,958,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -311,170 barrels versus a -1,851,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.73% versus a -.4% decline prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• Fed's Beige Book release.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (AVY) annual meeting, (TDY) annual meeting, (CI) annual meeting, (AN) annual meeting, (BLMN) annual meeting and the (ETN) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -21.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.7 +1.1
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 83.3% of Issues Advancing, 15.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.21 +9.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$255.0M
  
• 17 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 21.8% (-11.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 44.8 +4.5

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 52.6 +5.8%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 218.8 +.13%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,293.6 +.31%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 24.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +6.0
• 1-Day Vix 28.0 -32.0%
  
• Vix 30.7 -9.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .86 -16.5%