Friday, April 25, 2025

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:  

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @MarioNawful
  • @Kylenabecker
  • @WarClandestine 
  • @NickSortor
  • JUST IN: Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has officially BANNED illegal aliens from receiving SNAP and food stamp benefits, following Trump’s orders A deep investigation will also be launched into the widespread fraud and abuse by illegals taking advantage of the system in the past. LONG OVERDUE!
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @MarioNawful
  • TESLA BATTERIES GO 100% MADE IN AMERICA—AND TRUMP’S TARIFFS BARELY TOUCH THEM. Tesla just confirmed every Model 3 and Model Y delivered in the U.S. now runs on 100% American-built battery packs. Elon locked in vertical integration long before tariffs were back on the table—and it’s paying off. While other automakers scramble, Tesla’s Nevada Gigafactory is breaking records. Refineries for lithium and cathodes are already firing up in Texas.
  • @JimFergusonUK
  • @goddeketal
  • @Holden_Culotta

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 5,520.4 +4.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 40,120.0 +2.4%
  • NASDAQ 17,362.4 +6.6%
  • Russell 2000 1,952.0 +3.6%
  • NYSE FANG+ 12,319.8 +10.7%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 160.8 +7.7%
  • Wilshire 5000 54,495.0 +4.5%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 3,670.5 +6.4%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,775.0 +2.1%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 890.1 -1.4%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 229.1 +4.2%
  • NYSE Technology 5,132.2 +9.2%
  • Transports 13,470.2 +.28%
  • Utilities 1,022.8 +.24%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 132.3 +4.7%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 43.4 +3.2%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 213.2 +.77%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 122.2 +.48%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 536,619 +1.0%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.0 +149.8%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 100 +87
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -16.7 -7.8%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 146,370 +4.9%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,918,217 -3.7%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -11.0%
  • OEX Put/Call .94 +8.3%
  • ISE Sentiment 142.0 +29.0
  • NYSE Arms 1.14 +38.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.5 +12.0%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.26 +21.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .93 +25.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.1 -14.3%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .78 -43.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 34.7 -12.9%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.64 -2.7%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.78 -3.6%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 21,332.0 -3.8%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  40.7 +5.5
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.913 Trillion +.46%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$1.032 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 21.9 -13.8%
  • AAII % Bears 55.6 -2.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 35.0 (FEAR) +14.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 297.83 +1.8%
  • Crude Oil 63.1/bbl. -2.2%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 212.1 +1.3%
  • Natural Gas 2.92 -9.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.4 euros/megawatt-hour -8.3%
  • Heating Oil 217.1 +1.2% 
  • Newcastle Coal 94.3 (1,000/metric ton) -4.5%
  • Gold 3,290.9 -1.0%
  • Silver 32.93 +1.4%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 444.8 +2.9%
  • Copper 484.0 +2.9%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 350.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.5%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 9,725.0 USD/metric tonne unch.
  • CME Lumber  575.0 +.09%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,473.0 +1.3%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 317.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast -2.5% -30.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.3% +.4 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.7 +4.7%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 398.5 -6.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.3 -19.5%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $160.0 Billion($1,045.75 Savings Per Taxpayer) +$10.0 Billion
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(178 of 500 reporting) +17.6% +10.8 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.43 -.52:  Growth Rate +12.1% -.2 percentage point, P/E 19.9 +.8
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% -4.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +43.2% +19.5 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 417.95 +1.07: Growth Rate +20.9% +.3 percentage point, P/E 29.0 +2.3
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index .9 +22.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -7.8 -8.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.2 -1.6 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 8.8%(-.3 percentage point) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 91.2%(+.3 percentage point) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 5/7
  • US Dollar Index 99.51 +.12%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,773.9 +.21%
  • Bitcoin/USD 95,234.3 +11.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 183.3 +.9%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.81 -1.7%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 49.75 -2.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.26% -7.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.680 Trillion unch.
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.933 Billion +5.5%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 56.0 +4.0%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 285.7 -8.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 -7.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.8 -5.2%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 62.0 -9.9%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 183.6 -7.0%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 102.8 -6.0%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.1 -5.9%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.8 +1.3%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 121.3 +2.5%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.9% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.4% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.2% 
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% unch.: CPI YoY +2.35% -3.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.23% +2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +3.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 1.25 basis point +.25 basis point
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.0 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.5 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 66.9 -4.2%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 289.0 +2.0
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 254.0 -42.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 70.9 -8.4%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 168.1 -8.5%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 193.0 -7.3%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 156.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 643.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .75 +2.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.1% +20.0 basis points
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,401.0B +.5%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 220,250 -.34%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 53.4 -1.5%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.90% -3.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 233,500 -12.7%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +7.0%+40.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +10.0% -7.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $215.5M -15.3%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.16/gallon -.00/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,353.0 +9.0%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,157.3/40 ft Box -1.6%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,122.4 +1.0%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.5 +8.3%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 65.7 -10.8%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 271,617 -.99%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,757,802 +27.9%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +6.4%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +2.1%
Leading Sectors
  • Semis +11.1%
  • Computer Hardware +9.3%
  • Alt Energy +8.1%
  • Internet +8.1%
  • AI/Robotics +7.3%
Lagging Sectors
  • Oil Service -1.1%
  • Telecom -1.5%
  • Healthcare Provider -1.5%
  • Telecom -2.1%
  • Gold & Silver -2.9%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (34)
  • CEP, CSIQ, ZYBT, HONE, SPHR, LBRDK, CHTR, EHC, SPIR, TSLA, SXT, VRSN, NTGR, BWLP, FIX, CLPT, LOAR, SEM, SOFI, HUT, VRT, MSTR, RDDT, DAR, BYD, CMG, FLG, NVGS, TNK, FHI, MARA, DLR and MRX
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (15)
  • BRO, DOC, HCA, SSNC, CNC, HELE, BULL, ODFL, RYAN, AON, TMUS, APPF, AVTR, SAIA and SMMT
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on US/Global Trade Deal Hopes, Falling Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.01% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.26% -6.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.4 euros/megawatt-hour -3.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index .9 +1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -7.8 -.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.2 +.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(178 of 500 reporting) +17.6% +4.5 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.43 +.17:  Growth Rate +12.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.9 +.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +43.2% +19.4 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 417.95 +.14: Growth Rate +20.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 29.2 +.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.26 +10.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .93 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.3 -.6
  • US Yield Curve 50.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.5% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.3% +1.7 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% unch.: CPI YoY +2.35% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.23 +1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 57.4% (-.4 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 47.3%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +220 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +8 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my utility/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long