BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Monday, May 05, 2025

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, US Global Tariff Uncertainty, Profit-Taking, Energy/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 2:56 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher

Sector Performance: Mixed

Volume: Below Average

Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 23.0 +1.5%
S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .71 -26.5%
Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.8 +.2%
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.75 +.26%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.9 -.5%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.33 +4.6%

CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 32.6 -1.2%

ISE Sentiment Index 140.0 27.0

Total Put/Call .89 +6.0%

NYSE Arms .84 +16.7%
NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$167.1M

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.2 -1.9%

US Energy High-Yield OAS 479.4 +1.5%
Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 271.0 -16.0

European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.3 -.21%
Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 161.6 -1.0%

Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 109.0 basis points -1.0 basis point

Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.4 +1.0%

Emerging Market CDS Index 197.9 +.4%
Israel Sovereign CDS 106.6 +1.9%

China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.67 -.21%

2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -23.75 basis points unch.

3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -2.0 basis point -.25 basis point

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.25 basis point
MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 158.0 +1.0 basis point
Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 642.0 -1.0 basis point
Avg. Auto ABS OAS 75.0 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.19%
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.35% +4.0 basis points
3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% unch.

China Iron Ore Spot 96.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.27%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.9 euros/megawatt-hour -.45%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.6 +4.3 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -3.4 +.8 point

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.5 -2.1 points
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(364 of 500 reporting) +12.4% -.9 percentage point
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.91 +.09: Growth Rate +11.9% unch., P/E 20.6 -.1
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.34% -4.0 basis points
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 423.89 +.07: Growth Rate +22.6% unch., P/E 30.2 -.2
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .00 +16.0 basis points
Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.17 -25.0 basis points
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.5 -.2
US Yield Curve 50.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.1% unch.
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.0% -4.7 percentage points

Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +2.34% unch.
1-Year TIPS Spread 3.0 -4.0 basis points
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 unch.
Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 71.7% (-6.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 55.9%(+.7 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +550 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating +147 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +180 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:18 PM

Style Underperformer:

Small-Cap Value -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Oil Service -1.4% 2) Energy -1.2% 3) Alt Energy -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

ANGI, BRK/B, CRTO, SUN, TWST, TREE, JANX, TSN, ON, HELE, MARA, ZBH, CAPR, TGTX, PTCT, CEP and IART

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) EWT 2) SIRI 3) TSN 4) SKX 5) IRM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) OCUL 2) TSN 3) ZYXI 4) ARVN 5) ON

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) XLP 2) XBI 3) XLE 4) IGV 5) IBB

Charts:

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:51 PM

Style Outperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Gold & Silver +2.5% 2) Airlines +2.1% 3) Computer Services +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

SKX, BCRX, FTAI, CPS, GFI, NSSC, QURE, FRO, BTU, TNK, TEN, NEXN, TWLO, RBRK, COLM, SHC, SEM, SKE, SHAK, IRTC, TIC, TTD, RDDT, EXAS, HHH, UPST, FRPT, NXST, AAL, ARES, CART, GTX and DAL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) SKX 2) CNK 3) EWY 4) CEP 5) EXAS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) BCRX 2) DUOL 3) NVT 4) NEM 5) MTZ

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) XLF 2) XOP 3) OIH 4) SOXX 5) VDC

Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Posted by Gary .....at 1:10 PM

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(ADM)/.66
(AEP)/1.40
(CEG)/2.18
(DDOG)/.43
(DUK)/1.60
(ENR)/.67
(RACE)/2.51
(IT)/2.72
(GPN)/2.68
(LEA)/2.69
(LDOS)/2.50
(LMND)/-.94
(MAR)/2.25
(BTU)/.04
(SEE)/.67
(TDG)/8.96
(THS)/-.15
(UBS)/.56
(ZTS)/1.41

After the Close:

(AMD)/.94
(ANET)/.59
(ALAB)/.28
(CRUS)/1.18
(CPNG)/.06
(DVN)/1.24
(EA)/1.05
(JKHY)/1.37
(KLIC)/.19
(MOS)/.45
(MYGN)/-.05
(POWL)/3.44
(RDFN)/-.70
(RIVN)/-.77
(SMCI(/.43
(UPST)/.17
(WYNN)/1.24

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

The Trade Deficit for March is estimated to widen to -$137.2B versus -$122.7B in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The 10Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, (ALB) annual meeting, (X) annual meeting, (TREX) annual meeting, (DHR) annual meeting, (PLNT) annual meeting, (INTC) annual meeting, (VLO) annual meeting, (CF) annual meeting, (BMY) annual meeting, (HUBB) annual meeting, (ALGN) investor day, (BAX) annual meeting, (GE) annual meeting, (OSK) annual meeting and the Assoc. for Research in Vision/Opthalmology Meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 11:51 AM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -10.3% Below 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.2 +1.0
6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
49.2% of Issues Advancing, 48.2% Declining
TRIN/Arms .88 +22.2%
Non-Block Money Flow -$162.6M
48 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
34.2% (-1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 59.3 -1.0

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 62.1 +.7%
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 229.6 -.5%
Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,333.0 -.25%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 58.0 (GREED) +16.0
1-Day Vix 13.2 -33.4%
Vix 23.0 +1.6%
Total Put/Call .85 +1.2%

Sunday, May 04, 2025

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:07 PM

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:

Wall Street Journal:

Trump Downplays Economic Concerns as He Looks to Cut Trade Deals.
Trump’s Three Steps to Economic Growth. His tariffs, tax cuts and deregulation efforts make up a coherent strategy to benefit Main Street.
The World Is Past ‘Peak Climate,’ but Exxon Lags Behind. The energy giant, once a resister, now pushes for draconian regulations on carbon emissions.
Stock Investors Expect the Good Times to Continue, Brushing Off Recession Warnings.
Trump’s Tariffs Are Lifting Some U.S. Manufacturers.
The MAHA-Friendly App That’s Driving Food Companies Crazy.
How the Highest-Earning Millennials Made It to the Top of Their Generation.
House Democrats Are Having a Public Fight About Their Oldest Lawmakers.
Intimidated by AI? Here’s How to Get Started.
You Can Drink Your Weed Now. What to Know About THC Beverages.
Everyone Wants a Piece of Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’ Defense Plan.

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

Buffett passes the torch — here’s what Berkshire loyalists should know, from a longtime insider.

NewsMax:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:

@elonmusk

“𝙒𝙝𝙮 𝙞𝙨𝙣’𝙩 𝙎𝙤𝙧𝙤𝙨 𝙗𝙖𝙣𝙣𝙚𝙙 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝘼𝙢𝙚𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙖?” This question pops up in my comments a lot. The answer is simple: Republicans and Democrats work with him. The references I found were not from some random academic journal. Over 30 direct mentions of Soros or his NGOs appeared in the Journal of Democracy. It's the flagship journal of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), the same organization featured prominently in that widely circulated "Uniparty NGO" network diagrams below. NED is a U.S. government-funded outfit. It includes currently sitting members of Congress on its board... from both parties, not just former officials. Interesting.
OPEN SOCIETY ADMITS: YES, WE FUND PROTEST GROUPS. Protests targeting Elon, Tesla, Trump, and Israel are labeled "grassroots"—but major Democratic donors are footing the bill. Groups like Jewish Voice for Peace and IfNotNow, leading anti-Israel protests, are bankrolled by foundations seeded by Soros, Rockefeller, and the Pritzkers. The Open Society Foundation admits it funds groups that may organize protests, while denying direct coordination. The pattern is clear: if there’s a left-wing protest, there’s donor money somewhere making sure it happens. 100%.
EXCLUSIVE: The husband of California U.S. District Court Judge Jennifer L. Thurston, the judge who just ruled that President Trump’s administration can’t arrest any more illegal aliens unless they have a warrant for their arrest, is a multifamily real estate broker in California who caters to the illegal alien and immigrant community, and makes Instagram videos about how Donald Trump’s mass deportations and immigration policies are bad for multifamily real estate brokers and investors. Judge Thurston was appointed by @JoeBiden in 2021. This is a massive CONFLICT OF INTEREST that casts doubt on Judge Thurston’s April 29th, 2025 issuance of a preliminary injunction forbidding the US Border Patrol from conducting warrantless immigration stops throughout a wide swath of California. This appears to be a serious conflict of interest.
THREAD: GEORGE SOROS, THE MASTERMIND. Today's systems of NGOs isn't accidental - it was laid out in a vision 30 years ago by none other than George Soros. Interesting thread unpacking evil disguised as good.

@Zerohedge

Goldman on Q2 GDP: "we believe inventory investment was significantly understated, which means that GDP was significantly understated too. We expect this distortion to reverse in Q2. Our current Q2 GDP forecast of +2.4% assumes that measured imports decline sharply but measured inventory investment remains solid as the distortion unwinds".

@MarioNawful

A top NIH infectious disease researcher - once under Fauci—has broken ranks, calling for an end to risky gain-of-function virus research, which he suggests may have led to the COVID pandemic. “For too many years, scientists have sold the public on a lie.” That lie? "That we need to build and enhance dangerous viruses in the lab to prepare for outbreaks" But with today’s AI-powered models, that argument is collapsing. AI can now:
AI GLASSES JUST KILLED YOUR DUOLINGO STREAK. Why memorize verb charts when your glasses can do the talking? These smart specs translate up to 144 languages in real time, turning speech into subtitles right before your eyes. Conversations across cultures? Now as easy as putting on shades. Language barriers are about to join flip phones and fax machines in the museum of obsolete problems. (video)
TESLA’S ROBOTAXIS ARE HERE — AND THIS TIME, ELON’S PLAYING FOR KEEPS. There’s a saying in Silicon Valley: never bet against Elon. And with Tesla’s Robotaxi program quietly rolling down the streets of Austin and San Francisco — it’s clear he’s making his next power move. Over 1,500 rides and 15,000 miles have already been clocked in Tesla’s hush-hush pilot, using its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) tech. No press releases. No flashy reveal. J ust Teslas silently gathering data — and rewriting what “ride-hailing” might mean. This isn’t a demo. It’s a field test for a future where Uber and Lyft are footnotes, and Tesla is the default button you press when you need to get anywhere. (video)
AMERICA’S “NOT-A-WAR” IN UKRAINE LOOKS A LOT LIKE… WAR. Turns out, the U.S. didn’t just “support” Ukraine — it basically co-authored the war. A major investigation by the New York Times has revealed that since April 2022, Washington and Kyiv have operated what amounts to a shadow military alliance.

@LauraLoomer

BREAKING: Following my expose of Ashleigh Bondoc, who was recently hired to work at the DOJ as a Special Assistant to Stanley Woodward, Ashleigh appears to have DELETED her LinkedIn page that contained information about her past employment assisting illegal aliens. What is she trying to hide?? Too late. I captured it all.

@amuse

DOGE: The United States Institute of Peace was a vipers den of secrets. Hoards of weapons, cash, and when they were about to be exposed at least four individuals began deleting terabytes of data. The DOGE team even found multiple secret bank accounts. The FBI and DOJ is investigating.
TERROR: The FBI has issued a warning that Venezuela’s Maduro regime is actively training TdA terrorists to carry out assassination plots against Americans on U.S. soil. The drive-by media is deliberately ignoring the unclassified FBI assessment exposing these threats. (video)

@CGasparino

Breaking: Guidance I’m getting from my Wall Street sources close to the White House is that you can expect a bunch of trade deal “frameworks” in the coming weeks. They might trickle out sooner — deals w India, South Korea or Japan — always possible as early as this week as people have been forecasting. But I am told the delays involved the time consuming nature of getting various foreign sign-offs on all the details in the agreements even when it comes to announcing a framework as opposed to the totally final deal. Story developing.

@nicksortor

#BREAKING: Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs has VETOED a bill requiring the state to follow federal immigration laws. Time for Hobbs to be ARRESTED for shielding illegals! (pic)

@WallStreetApes

INSANE!! Here’s what you were NEVER TOLD about the Pacific Palisades Fires. Portland, Oregon couple was found at the scene in a fake fire truck, the husband was a convicted arsonist, the wife “is a national weather service wind and fire expert who teaches CLIMATE CHANGE issues”. (video)
Canada quietly banned all gas powered vehicles without a single vote. By 2035, you’ll be banned from buying a gas or hybrid car in Canada. No debate. No vote. The Environment Minister Guilbeault quietly changed CEPA, the Environmental Protection Act and forced a full electric mandate. - By 2026, 20% of new vehicle sales must be ZEVs (Zero Emission Vehicle). - This increases to 60% by 2030. - By 2035, the target is 100% ZEV sales. (video)
Bill Gates planning to build a smart city in Arizona called Belmont. He’s already spent over $80,000,000 buying 25,000 acres. News reports are now reporting increased risk of wildfires IN THE EXACT SAME AREA and insurance companies ARE CANCELLING POLICIES. (video)

@CollinRugg

REPORT: Antarctica reverses trend and gains ice for the first time in decades, according to a new study published by Science China Earth Sciences. Researchers say from 2021-2023, the Antarctic Ice Sheet saw a record-breaking mass *gain.* (video)

@StephenM

The Democrats appointed communist judges in a handful of America’s most liberal cities. Those unelected communist judges are now trying to rule over us all and invalidate the 2024 electoral landslide.

@ShadowofEzra

Democrat Rep. Ilhan Omar proposes a government database to track White men, citing them as a rising threat. She claims White men cause more deaths in the U.S. than foreign terrorist organizations. Omar urges the creation of policies to monitor and stop the radicalization of White men across the country. (video)

@Charliekirk11

Per the NYPD, Felix Rojas found a dead or dying father on the New York Subway. Rather than administer first aid or call for help, Rojas allegedly robbed him, then returned to spend thirty minutes raping his corpse. In a completely unsurprising twist, Rojas is an illegal immigrant, who was repeatedly caught crossing the U.S.-Mexico border but kept returning until he finally got through unscathed. Once inside America, he was of course treated as sacrosanct and allowed to roam free. Now, hundreds of thousands of dollars will be spent offering Rojas legal defense.
Tomorrow the House will vote on HR 867, a bill that will criminalize private boycotts of Israel. Fines up to $1,000,000 and prison time up to 20 years. Bills like this only create more antisemitism, and play into growing narratives that Israel is running the US government. In America you are allowed to hold differing views. You are allowed to disagree and protest. We've allowed far too many people who hate America move here from abroad, but the right to speak freely is the birthright of all Americans. This bill should not pass. Any Republican that votes for this bill will expose themselves. We will be watching very closely.

@C_3C_3

I want perp walks. I want honest trials. I want asset seizures. I want crimes punished. I want everyone to see it. I want the criminals to pay for their crimes committed against the American people. From Russiagate to COVID to 2020. None of this stops until they do. A must.
Here’s a video of Anthony Fauci admitting masks didn’t work. It was pure authoritarian control. Think about what a year of masks did to the development of young children alone. Not seeing smiles. The mental toll and fear it created. Pure evil. (video)

@BGatesIsaPsycho

When Bill Gates isn’t investing in dangerous ineffective vaccines, blocking out the sun, insect food, GMOMosquitoe & Cow fart drugs…. He’s investing in companies to cut down trees to reduce Co2.

@RepMTG

I gave my vote for a Biden/Democrat funding and policy CR once because my President asked me to, but I will not do it again. Going forward, earning my vote for funding and policies will be defined by these issues: 1. I will not vote to fund a single penny or bullet to Ukraine regardless of a useless mineral deal that the American people do not care about or want. Write the several hundred billion off as a loss instead of permanently injecting ourselves into a never ending blank check and geopolitical disaster that the American people do not support or even care about. Haven’t enough been slaughtered? Let’s mine our own rare Earth resources, we are rich either them, and create American jobs. And add Iran. Let the countries in that region of the world deal with them as they choose. Not America, we have an enemy that has literally been murdering, raping, and stealing from Americans for years. I’ve never seen a Houthi, but I’ve seen and heard the horror and heartbreak from American families about their family members murdered by the Cartel’s crimes and drugs. If we can post on social media that we are going to bomb Iran, why would we hesitate or ask permission from Mexico to take out the organizations that enrich themselves by tens of billions every year by murder, rape, drug trafficking, and human and child sex trafficking?

@DC_Draino

What’s the point of a House majority if you won’t pass any bills or impeach corrupt judges?

@catturd2

The COVID vaccine should be immediately banned across the globe. How much more evidence do we need about how worthless and dangerous it is? Almost everyone now has a story to tell about how it's negatively affected someone in their lives. Feel free to share you own experience. It seems nearly everyone has one.

@sav_says_

SHOCKING: Over the past 4 years, 162 Texans have been killed by criminals released on bond by Texas district court judges. One of these judges is Lori Chambers Gray of Harris County. She alone freed 10 defendants who then went on to commit murder: (video)

@Breaking911

WATCH: CNN interviewed a Mexican cartel fentanyl maker & asked if he had a message for Trump. The left hates the President so much they're literally cuddling up with terrorists. Wild. (video)

@Sassafrass_84

Nailed it.

Night Trading

Asian indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.75 +.75 basis point.
China Sovereign CDS 58.75 -1.25 basis points.
China Iron Ore Spot 96.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.39%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.75 +.29%
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.04%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.5 -.4%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.29% -3.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.8 +1.6%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.29%.
S&P 500 futures -.53%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.54%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

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