Friday, May 09, 2025

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:

WSJ.com:

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:       

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @LauraLoomer 
  • @catturd2
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @listen_2learn
  • Norm Eisen is thrilled that soon to be former senator Thom Tillis sank Ed Martin’s opportunity to be DC AG. effort. Norm is no doubt scared of Ed Martin because Norm’s fingerprints are all over everything related to January 6. Ed Martin must make Norm Eisen target number one for everything that Norm has done since 2017 including lawfare, having Trump affiliated attorneys disbarred, working with the states (Fani, Chris Mayes, etc.) to conduct lawfare as a pardon insurance policy in case Trump won, working to put Tina Peters in prison, trying to kick Trump off the ballot, election interference, bogus impeachments, trying to put Trump in prison over made-up charges (including working with witness Michael Cohen and Juan Merchan at the same time on the Bragg case), the 2020 election, January 6, and on and on and on. If Norm is not held accountable (perp walked and put in prison), his reign of terror will continue the second that democrats take back power. (video)
  • @GuntherEagleman
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @NicoleShanahan
  • @NickSortor
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @LibsofTiktok
  • @WCdispatch_
  • @C_3C_3
  • @DC_Draino
  • @matt_vanswol

Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 5,673.8 -.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 41,324.4 unch.
  • NASDAQ 17,953.3 -.1%
  • Russell 2000 2,025.4 +.2%
  • NYSE FANG+ 12,675.3 -1.3%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 166.3 -.9%
  • Wilshire 5000 56,031.2 -.1%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 3,778.0 -.6%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,823.1 +.1%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 893.66 -.76%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 232.9 +.97%
  • NYSE Technology 5,383.8 +.18%
  • Transports 14,061.9 -.10%
  • Utilities 1,030.9 -.79%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 139.0 +2.6%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 45.0 -.2%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 211.82 -1.2%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 121.81 -.35%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 543,329 +.51%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.0 +23.2%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 135 -50
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -19.8 -2.5%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 177,209 +3.7%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,816,516 +1.9%
  • Total Put/Call .75 -10.7%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.04 +.81%
  • ISE Sentiment 136.0 +22.0
  • NYSE Arms .87 +20.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 63.5 +1.3%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .05 +21.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.11 -31.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.2 -.8%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .84 -18.7%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 31.1 -4.7%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.36 -5.8%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.88 -.45%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 22,516.4 +6.9%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  81.1 +21.2
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.946 Trillion +.54%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$10.224 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 29.4 +40.7%
  • AAII % Bears 51.5 -13.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 62.0 (GREED) +19.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 292.0 +.87%
  • Crude Oil 61.1/bbl. +4.5%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 211.0 +4.4%
  • Natural Gas 3.79 +3.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.6 euros/megawatt-hour +6.0%
  • Heating Oil 206.6 +3.7% 
  • Newcastle Coal 104.0 (1,000/metric ton) +1.2%
  • Gold 3,337.5 +3.1%
  • Silver 32.79 +2.4%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 441.7 +.2%
  • Copper 464.7 -1.1%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 340.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 9,500.0 USD/metric tonne n/a
  • CME Lumber  575.0 -1.0%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,441.4 +.5%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 317.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% +120.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.6 -4.1 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.50 +8.2%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 619.0 -11.6 +203.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 9.5 -10.2%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $165.0 Billion($1,024.84 Savings Per Taxpayer) +$5.0 Billion
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(451 of 500 reporting) +12.3% -1.0 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.99 +.17:  Growth Rate +11.9% unch., P/E 20.5 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.32% -6.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 423.90 +.08: Growth Rate +22.6% unch., P/E 30.1 -.3
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.8 +7.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.6 +14.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.4 +2.8 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 17.2%(-.1 percentage point) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 82.8%(+.1 percentage point) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 6/18
  • US Dollar Index 100.3 +.32%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,808.9 +.41%
  • Bitcoin/USD 103,115.5 +7.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 183.76 -.02%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.71 -.13%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 49.0 +1.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.37% +6.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.663 Trillion +.04%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.739 Billion -17.7%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 55.3 -1.8%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 260.3 -7.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 105.0 -5.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.5 -4.5%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 56.2 -7.2%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 179.0 -1.6%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 106.0 +1.3%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 31.0 +5.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.8 +.36%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 120.71 +.79%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% -10.0 basis points
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.4% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.2% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +2.34% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.13% +10.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +4.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -3.5 basis points +.25 basis point
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.25 +2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 unch.
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 61.39 -4.8%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 292.0 -3.0
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 250.0 -37.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 66.3 -4.5%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 157.2 -3.7%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 190.1 -3.5%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 154.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 634.0 -9.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .71 -4.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.1% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,402.7B unch.
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 227,000 +.44%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% -10.0 basis points
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 53.6 +5.2%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.83% +1.0 basis point
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 248,400 +11.0%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +6.7% unch.
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +4.0% -4.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $197.6M n/a
  • Nationwide Gas $3.15/gallon -.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,316.0 -6.7%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,076.2/40 ft Box -.7%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,106.4 -1.3%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.5 -18.8%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 68.4 -2.7%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 273,052 +1.6%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,730,340 +29.9%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth +.7%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -.7%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +6.8%
  • Airlines +5.2%
  • Alt Energy +5.1%
  • Digital Health +4.8%
  • Education +4.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Social Media -1.8%
  • Restaurants -2.4%
  • Steel -2.5%
  • Pharma -6.0%
  • Biotech -7.6%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (41)
  • GOGO, LASR, GDOT, LYFT, OUST, TMDX, TBEX, PODD, TTD, TASK, ARLO, ATGE, TOST, SEZL, FOXF, PSIX, CARG, SPT, YELP, MCHP, FROG, AVPT, DCTH, NET, TPC, AEVA, FTK, PAR, PINS, ANGI, DAVE, FUN, MNR, SONO, PEN, TTAN, MARA and CEPO
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (25)
  • COCO, OGS, PDFS, AXGN, ANIP, IIIV, CBLL, HUBS, AKAM, EXPE, ERII, LQDT, NTRA, AMR, RKLB, MP, PGNY, GSAT, AFRM, SLVM, MTUS, SG, INOD, GMED and ONTO
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on US Global Trade Deal Jitters, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Consumer Discretionary/Biotech Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.97 -.01% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.36% -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.28%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.6 euros/megawatt-hour -2.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.8 +.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.6 -.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.4 +2.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(451 of 500 reporting) +12.3% -.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.99 +.18:  Growth Rate +11.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.5 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.32% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 423.90 +.44: Growth Rate +22.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.1 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .05 +12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.11 +11.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 9.5 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 49.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.6% -.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +2.34% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.13 +1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 51.1% (+1.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 43.1%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +12 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (DOLE)/.39
  • (FOXA)/.91
  • (NRG)/1.75
  • (SBH)/.39
  • (SRAD)/.05
After the Close: 
  • (BCO)/1.17
  • (DVA)/1.95
  • (HTZ)/-.98
  • (PLUG)/-.19
  • (POWI)/.28
  • (SPG)/2.91
  • (MODG)/-.06
Economic Releases
2:00 pm EST
  • The Federal Budget Balance for April is estimated at $256.0B versus -$160.5B in March.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kugler speaking, JPMorgan Tech/Media/Communications Conference, Wells Fargo Financial Services Conference, BofA Healthcare Conference, BofA Industrials/Transport/Airlines Key Leaders Conference, (CNH) annual meeing, (IP) annual meeting, (NI) annual meeting, BofA Healthcare Conference and the BofA Metals/Mining/Steel Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST