Stocks Dropping Substantially into Final Hour on "Big, Beautiful Bill" Passage Wrangling, Surging Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Transport/Financial Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.2% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.59% +10.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.11%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.6 euros/megawatt-hour -1.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.0 +1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.9 +1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.8 +.5
  
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(469 of 500 reporting) +11.2% -.2 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.81 -.05:  Growth Rate +11.8% unch., P/E 21.5 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.31% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 425.80 +.26: Growth Rate +23.1% unch., P/E 32.2 +.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .40 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.52 +6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.1 -.7
• US Yield Curve 57.75 basis points (2s/10s) +7.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.0% -1.6 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% +2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.97 +5.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 71.2% (unch.) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 50.5%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -347 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -22 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +47 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/financial/technology/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -2.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -3.1% 2) Airlines -3.0% 3) Healthcare Providers -2.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CLDX, HP, IGT, HUT, MTD, HHH, TPG, TEM, TTWO, BIDU, KHC, QBTS, JHX, TGT, LEGN, UNH, PSY, EFX, PANW, TRU, FLNG, MRNA, QUBT, CTRI, MBX, NMRK, RDDT, AES, SG, QXO, CRI, GTX, VFC and WIX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XME 2) RILY 3) WRD 4) IYR 5) CARR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WOLF 2) FICO 3) VFC 4) IOVA 5) VSAT

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IYW  2) KRE 3) XLV 4) ARKK 5) ITB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1)  Gold & Silver +1.1% 2) Electric Vehicles +.6% 3) Social Media +.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GOOS, WRD, CRWV, DY, XPEV, SMLR, HSAI, ACLX, NPCE, BULL, MIR, ZK, GOOG and XYF

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CMA 2) LAES 3) RILY 4) NVTS 5) URGN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GOOS 2) WB 3) IDN 4) EVLV 5) CFSB

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) BAI 2) XLP 3) XBI 4) SOXX 5) IGM

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AAP)/-.82
• (ADI)/1.70
• (BJ)/.92
• (RL)/2.04
• (TD)/1.26
• (WSM)/1.76
  

After the Close:

• (ADSK)/2.15
• (CPRT)/.42
• (DECK)/.60
• (INTU)/10.93
• (LGF/A)/.42
• (ROST)/1.44
• (WDAY)/2.01
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April is estimated to fall to -.25 versus -.03 in March.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 230K versus 229K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1883K versus 1881K prior.
  

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for May is estimated to fall to 49.9 versus 50.2 in April.
• S&P Global US Services PMI for May is estimated to rise to 51.0 versus 50.8 in April.
• S&P Global US Composite PMI for May is estimated to fall to 50.3 versus 50.6 in April.
  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for April is estimated to rise to 4.1M versus 4.02M in March.
• 11:00 am EST
• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for May is estimated to fall to -5.0 versus -4.0 in April

Upcoming Splits

• (FAST) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, 10Y Tips auction, weekly Fed balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, American Society of Clinical Oncology Meeting, B. Riley Institutional Investor Conference, BNP Paribas Animal Health Day, (THC) annual meeting, (NEE) annual meeting, (STX) analyst meeting, (PWR) annual meeting, (HD) annual meeting, (VRSN) annual meeting, (WING) annual meeting, (VZ) annual meeting, (SCHW) annual meeting, (NOW) annual meeting, (DD) annual meeting, (CAKE) annual meeting, (CART) annual meeting, (PODD) annual meeting, (ONON) annual meeting and the Wolfe Research Transport/Industrials Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 22.6 +2.8
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 23.3% of Issues Advancing, 74.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .67 -34.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$297.1M
  
• 51 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 42.3% (-4.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.0 -3.9

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.4 -.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 239.8 +.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,137.6 +1.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 69.0 (GREED) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 11.5 -16.6%
  
• Vix 18.3 +.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .80 +3.9%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• NEWS: Elon Musk's company, Neuralink, has now successfully implanted its brain chip into five humans. The patients can control a mouse using only their thoughts. Neuralink aims to implant its new brain chip, Blindsight, into a human patient for the first time in late 2025/early 2026, likely in the UAE. The device aims to restore sight to people who are completely blind. (video)

• @ZeroHedge

• David Sacks' Lieutenant Explains The Real Reason Why Trump's AI Deal With UAE Is A Yuge Win For America.
• *US DOJ INVESTIGATES CUOMO OVER TESTIMONY ABOUT PANDEMIC: NYT *DOJ OPENS PROBE OF ANDREW CUOMO OVER PANDEMIC TESTIMONY: NYT.
• Trump Unveils $175 Billion Plan For "Golden Dome" Missile Defense System.
• US Veteran Freed From Venezuelan Prison After Latest Trump Diplomacy With Maduro.
• Australia's Unrealized Gains Tax Will Be A Lesson In Economic Suicide.
• Experts Warn Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" Could Codify Big Land Grabs.
• Israel Preparing Possible Preemptive Attack On Iranian Nuclear Facilities: US Intelligence.
• ZH Geopolitical Week Ahead: The Military-Industrial Complex & Trump's Big Beautiful Bill.
• Working Out Is Right Wing, And That's A Good Thing.   
• 'I'm Still A No': Battle Over SALT Holding Up 'Big, Beautiful Bill' As Trump Demands Progress.
• Trump going after the puppetmasters.
• Bitcoin & Bullion Jump, Tech Dumps, As 'Japanic' Attack Jolts Bonds.

• @MarioNawful

• ELON LOCKS VOWS FIVE MORE YEARS AT TESLA, ROBOTAXI ROLLOUT BEGINS IN JUNE. Elon isn’t going anywhere—which means we will see amazing things time come. At the Qatar Economic Forum, he confirmed Tesla's helm is his for at least five more years, brushing aside the Delaware pay dispute and reasserting his grip on the company’s future. Just hours later, he doubled down—Robotaxi service will launch in Austin this June with no human driver. This is Tesla’s moonshot moment.
• ELON: TESLA OWNERS WILL BE ABLE TO ADD THEIR CARS TO THE FLEET LIKE AIRBNB. "We'll have a model which is kind of like some combination of Uber and Airbnb. So if you're a Tesla owner, right, you'll be able to add or subtract your car to the fleet. Just like in Airbnb, you could rent out your spare bedroom or rent out your house when you're not using it." (video)
• SENATE PASSES NO TAX ON TIPS ACT IN UNANIMOUS MOVE BACKING TRUMP PROMISE. In a stunning display of bipartisan support, the Senate passed the No Tax on Tips Act without a single objection. The measure, originally introduced by
  @SenTedCruz and backed by Democrats like @SenJackyRosen, eliminates federal income taxes on tipped wages—one of Trump’s most populist campaign promises. Rosen dared Republicans to block it. None did. Chuck Schumer called it a win for “hardworking Americans.” The bill now heads to the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson aims to pass it within 24 hours. 
• ELON: LEGACY MEDIA PUSHES FALSE NARRATIVES. "What I've learned is that legacy media propaganda is very effective at making people believe things that aren't true — like that I'm a Nazi, for example. How many legacy media outlets, publications, talk shows — whatever — tried to claim I was a Nazi because of some random hand gesture at a rally where all I said was that my heart goes out to you, and I was talking about space travel." (video)
  

• @LauraLoomer

• Ashley Moody @SenAshleyMoody, the Former Florida Attorney General and current US Senator thanked HHS Secretary @RobertKennedyJr for vowing to shut down the illegal Chinese vape industry that is targeting children all across America. Did you know that 90 % of vapes are illegally imported from China, and Florida is No. 1 in the nation for illicit vape sales, while China has become the world’s leading producer of e-cigarettes? Biden didn’t do anything to punish China. Things are going to be changing under President Trump’s administration.
• EXCLUSIVE: Islamic JIHADIST who traveled to Pakistan to train in an Islamic terror camp and served a 20 year prison sentence in the US for Jihadi terrorist activities has now been listed as a member of the White House Advisory Board of Lay Leaders, Announced Today on the official White House website.
  

• @TheTranscript

• $NVDA CEO: "There’s a 100MW factory, based on Hoppers, you have 45,000 dyes, 1,400 racks, and it produces 300 million tokens per second. Then this is what it looks like with Blackwell — you have 86. "

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.0 -.75 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 52.5 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.4 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.74 +.34%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.4 -.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.49% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 -.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.11%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.10%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.