Stocks Higher into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deal Hopes, US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.9 -2.3%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .65 -50.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 69.9 +2.5% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 -1.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.0 +.25%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.32 -.48%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.3 -3.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 154.0 +5.0

• Total Put/Call .98 +18.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.13 +16.5%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.0 -.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 400.1 -3.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 238.0 +13.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.9 -1.3%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 143.0 -1.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 97.0 basis points -1.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.4 -1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 167.3 -1.3%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 97.2 +.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.77 +.15%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.0 basis points -.25 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -.25 basis point -1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 -.5 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 155.0 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 618.0 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 59.0 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.15% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.46% +2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.8 euros/megawatt-hour +2.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.0 -3.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.7 -3.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.7 -4.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(492 of 500 reporting) +12.5% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.75 -.09:  Growth Rate +8.9% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.6 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.26% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +32.5% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 428.40 -.04: Growth Rate +23.9% unch., P/E 32.8 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .36 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.32 -9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 7.6 -.2
• US Yield Curve 50.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.6% +80.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.6% -20.0 basis points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.65% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.86 +2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 74.3% (unch.) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 54.1%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +330 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -90 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +70 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/utility/financial/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Education -2.9% 2) Gold & Silver -.7% 3) Foods -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HLN, OKLO, CHEF, PAY, FROG, NNE, HRTG, CLBR, FDS, KVUE, PSO, SATS, LRN, ETON, SOC and PONY

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ROBN 2) CRDO 3) VSCO 4) HPE 5) KVUE

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SOC 2) KVUE 3) BMBL 4) SATS 5) LPRO

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) VGT 2) XLI 3) SHLD 4) EUAD 5) XLU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +4.3% 2) Alt Energy +4.2% 3) Disk Drives +3.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SBET, VG, CRDO, MLTX, CRWV, STR, RAPP, DG, FERG, SMMT, PPTA, RCUS, VTLE, ANGO, BCAX, AEVA, SIG, NBR, CNM, HG, HLIO, ELVN, AMTM, GRAL, CLPT, LEU, TTMI, KYMR, MP, HOOD, SG, LI, PSN, VVV, VST, TAC, WWD, FLR, DLTR, HXL, MRUS, MARA, HUT, CMCO, KNSA, LULU, GLXY, TLN, UBS, SLP, ENPH, SYNA, SKE, ENS, PINS, MDGL, AMSC, VNOM, PATH, IIIV, AA, TWO, ARQQ, FTV, TACOU, BNTX, NBIS, PEGA, DAVA, ENOV, GLBE, INCY, INDV, LIF and OUST

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VEEV 2) SWK 3) QURE 4) GNRC 5) CRDO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MLTX 2) DG 3) CRDO 4) CTRN 5) RAPP

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) IBB 3) XBI 4) GDX 5) SOXX

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DLTR)/1.21
• (GCO)/-2.09
• (LOVE)/-.81
• (THO)/1.78 

After the Close: 

• (AGX)/1.09
• (DSGX)/.44
• (FIVE)/.83
• (MDB)/.66
• (PVH)/2.25
• (VRNT)/.13 

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for May is estimated to rise to 112K versus 62K in April. 
  

9:45 am EST

• Final S&P Global PMI readings for May.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for May is estimated to rise to 52.0 versus 51.6 in April.
• ISM Services Prices Paid for May is estimated to fall to 65.0 versus 65.1 in April.  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,249,200 barrels versus a -2,795,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -875,800 barrels versus a -2,441,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +45,800 barrels versus a -724,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.68% versus a -.5% decline prior. 

2:00 pm EST

• Fed's Beige Book release. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Cook speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, UBS Auto/Auto Tech Conference, Jefferies Healthcare Conference, William Blair Growth Stock Conference, Wolfe Research Small/Mid-Cap Conference, BofA Tech Conference, (URBN) annual meeting, (SHAK) annual meeting, (GDDY) annual meeting, (WDAY) annual meeting, (OKLO) annual meeting, (ABNB) annual meeting, (APP) annual meeting, (HUBS) annual meeting and the Deutsche Bank Consumer Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +8.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.9 +.8
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 69.9% of Issues Advancing, 28.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.06 +9.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$32.1M
  
• 68 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
• 40.9% (+2.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.9 +4.4

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.8 +2.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 240.1 +.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,324.4 +.22%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 56.0 (GREED) -7.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.6 -19.8%
  
• Vix 18.0 -2.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .98 +18.1%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• Andreessen Horowitz (a16z): “Elon has this Tesla Optimus robot he’s building… robotics is going to be the biggest industry on the planet.” Do you agree? Is Optimus the next trillion-dollar play?  (video)
• Over 1000 people per month are arrested in the UK over social media posts. With the exception of the USA, 'freedom of speech' doesn't really exist. The rules, boundaries, and transparency just differ country to country. Wow.

• @ZeroHedge

• DHS Removes Sanctuary City List After Criticism From Sheriffs.
• Rep. Jasmine Crockett Says Democrats Will Subpoena Musk If They Retake House.
• Schools In China Reportedly Isolate Students As COVID Cases Surge.
• Leaked Test Confirms Boxer Who Won Gold Medal Competing Against Women At Paris Olympics, Is Indeed A Man.
• Nearly Half Of $700B In Homes For Sale Have Gone 'Stale' As Sellers Outnumber Buyers By 500K.
• From @NateSilver538, this is Democrats' problem in a nutshell.
• Changes in positioning with buybacks and inflows, points to a little over 10% upside for the S&P 500 by year end (DB). (graph)
• Greta Thunberg Seeks Spotlight In Gaza After Abandoning Climate Crusade. 
• Playing With Fire.
• Activist Scientists Rage Over Trump's Order For Rigorous Science, Likening Him To Hitler.
• Record institutional short in ultra long bonds (via futs). (graph)
• Bedlam Is In The Air...
• BREAKING: Mohamed Soliman, the criminal alien Boulder terrorist let in under Biden, has been charged with a hate crime. 14 Molotov cocktails were found near the scene, and USAID paperwork was discovered in his vehicle. (video)
• Bullion, Big-Tech, & Black Gold Boom To Start June; Dollar Gloom Continues.

• @MarioNawful

• DISNEY SWINGS THE AXE AGAIN: HUNDREDS MORE TO BE LAID OFF. Disney is cutting several hundred more jobs across film, TV, and finance departments worldwide, proving that pandering to activists doesn't pay the bills. The layoffs hit marketing, publicity, casting, and development teams globally. This follows 7,000 job cuts in 2023 and another 200 from ABC News in March. That's nearly 8,000 employees sacrificed while Disney chases woke content nobody wants to watch.
• FDA UNVEILS ELSA AI TOOL TO BOOST PERFORMANCE ACROSS THE BOARD…AND IT CAME IN UNDER BUDGET. The FDA has just launched Elsa, an AI tool designed to make work easier for everyone at the agency. Elsa’s job is to read, write, and summarize huge amounts of information, helping people work faster without cutting corners. FDA Commissioner Makary says Elsa is already ahead of schedule and saving money. This tool will help FDA staff stay sharp by speeding up reviews, evaluations, and inspections. (video)
• JUSTICE DEPARTMENT INVESTIGATES BIDEN'S AUTOPEN PARDONS: WAS HE EVEN AWAKE? Trump's Justice Department is examining whether Biden was mentally competent when he pardoned family members and death row inmates, questioning if others exploited him through "AutoPen or other means." Ed Martin, DOJ Pardon Attorney: "[The investigation involves] whether Biden was competent and whether others were taking advantage of him through use of AutoPen or other means." The probe targets Biden's last-minute pardons for five family members and 37 death row inmates. 
• SEN. MULLIN: DOGE IS NOW WOVEN INTO AGENCIES TO FIND FRAUD AND CUT THE WASTE. “So what's happened now is DOGE has kind of been woven into all these agencies now. So they're on the agency's payroll and their whole job is to look for fraud, waste, and abuse. So we're still getting those cuts. We're still finding fraud, waste, and abuse, and as we identify them, we're just cutting 'em immediately as we go through the appropriation process.” 
• FLORIDA BRACES FOR A DUSTY INTRUDER: SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO PAINT SKIES, QUITE LITERALLY! A huge Saharan dust cloud, roughly the size of the continental U.S., is crossing the Atlantic and is set to reach Florida this week. It has already covered the Caribbean in a rusty haze and will bring similar conditions to parts of the Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas. The dust may weaken air quality, particularly for people with breathing issues. However, it also suppresses rain and storms, making for clearer sunsets and less rain, even as allergy risks climb. 
• TRUMP: NO CHANCE OF ECONOMIC SURVIVAL IF U.S. CAN’T COUNTER TARIFFS. "If other Countries are allowed to use Tariffs against us, and we’re not allowed to counter them, quickly and nimbly, with Tariffs against them, our Country doesn’t have, even a small chance, of Economic survival." 
• TRUMP: THE ONLY ‘CUTTING’ WE WILL DO IS FOR WASTE, FRAUD, AND ABUSE. “So many false statements are being made about ‘THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL,’ but what nobody understands is that it’s the single biggest Spending Cut in History, by far! But there will be NO CUTS to Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid… The only ‘cutting’ we will do is for Waste, Fraud, and Abuse, something that should have been done by the Incompetent, Radical Left Democrats for the last four years, but wasn’t.” 
• TRUMP: WE WILL NOT ALLOW ANY ENRICHMENT OF URANIUM FROM IRAN “The AUTOPEN should have stopped Iran a long time ago from ‘enriching.’ Under our potential Agreement — WE WILL NOT ALLOW ANY ENRICHMENT OF URANIUM!” 

• @LauraLoomer 

• Authorities now confirming that some of the social media posts made by Mohamed Soliman were pro-Muslim Brotherhood. He liked many Muslim Brotherhood accounts as well. Just as I called it yesterday. It’s time to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization.

• @RodDMartin

• BREAKING THREAD: The SHOCKING truth about what's REALLY happening in Cuba - and why it's more dangerous than you think. Just 90 miles from Florida, Cuba has become ground zero for America's biggest threats. China, Russia, AND Iran are all there RIGHT NOW. Read on...

• @StephenM

• The suspect in the Colorado terrorist attack was granted a visa by the Biden Administration. After he illegally overstayed the visa, the Biden Administration then granted him a work permit. IMMIGRATION SECURITY IS NATIONAL SECURITY.

• @GenFlynn

• ATTENTION! So, it appears Zelenskyy gave the go ahead to attack parked Russian nuclear capable bombers without informing @realDonaldTrump (if true that our President was not consulted nor informed, this isn’t simply a breach of protocol. It’s a geopolitical insult and a warning sign. If Ukraine is willing to conduct strikes with strategic consequences without notifying the White House, we are no longer allies with coordination issues—we are co-belligerents flying blind). Also given Senator “warmonger” Lindsey Graham’s and Senator “Da Nang Dick” Blumenthal’s recent visit, this attack could appear as though it was sanctioned. I pray the Russians have better intelligence than that. IMHO, these two don’t have the sense or common sense to pull something like this off (there will have to be denials though).

• @JackPosobiec

• EXCLUSIVE: Harvard Commencement Speaker Worked For Org Tied To China’s Military.

• @BehizyTweets

• Why the hell is this in the Big Beautiful Bill? "No State may enforce, during the 10-year period beginning on the date of the enactment of this Act, any law or regulation of that State or a political subdivision thereof limiting, restricting, or otherwise regulating artificial intelligence models, artificial intelligence systems, or automated decision systems entered into interstate commerce." This is some serious commie-level legislation. AI desperately needs regulations to preserve human liberties. The Feds haven't enacted the necessary regulations but are stopping states from doing so. WHY? (pic)

• @WarClandestine

• BREAKING!! There’s currently a MASSIVE scandal going on at the FBI. Nefarious elements within the FBI manipulated the case management database, aka “Sentinel”, which allowed select agents to conceal evidence pertaining to cases by keyword. This “prohibited access” function essentially gave Deep State agents the ability to cover up information about any case they wanted. In addition, we just got confirmation from a memo from Senator Grassely, that this function was used by the Mueller Special Counsel during the Crossfire Hurricane investigation, meaning they were covering something up. So let’s say a good FBI agent wanted to search the FBI database for information related to “Epstein” for example. This prohibited access function would render a false-negative, and not populate the results of what it is you were looking for. It might populate some, but not ALL. Files were able to be hidden from search results in the database using this function.

• @nicksortor

• JUST IN: The FBI has announced they are CRACKING DOWN on physicians mutiIating children by trans-ing them via “gender affirming care.” FINALLY! FBI is asking the public to report tips of any hospitals, clinics, or practitioners performing these operations on children to 1-800-CALL-FBI.

• @LeadingReport

• BREAKING: U.S. collected a record-breaking $22.3 billion in tariff revenue in May.

• @GuntherEagleman

• This is horrific. Here's 7 minutes of testimony from an eyewitness. Listen to every second of this. "I mean, his leg from ankle or foot all the way up to his buttocks was melted. His skin was basically melted off." We have to get these illegals out. No exceptions.

• @gatewaypundit

• MSNBC Calls Illegal Alien Muslim Terrorist FROM EGYPT a “White Male”.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.5 -.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 51.5 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 94.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.98%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.80 -.28%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.06 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.5 +.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.45% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.0 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.26%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.23%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.20%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher .  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.