Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 6,009.8 +1.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 42,772.0 +.9%

• NASDAQ 19,572.5 +2.2%

• Russell 2000 2,125.1 +2.7%

• NYSE FANG+ 14,216.2 +2.5%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 189.8 +10.5%

• Wilshire 5000 59,424.2 +1.5%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,109.0 +1.7%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,871.5 +.7%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 903.1 -1.8%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 241.5 +1.6%
  

• NYSE Technology 5,882.2 +3.1%

• Transports 14,860.2 +.8%

• Utilities 1,033.60 -.9%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 146.0 +1.4%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 46.93 +2.9%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 217.7 +.43%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 124.29 +.47%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 549,244 +.34%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.4 +10.0%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 640 +451

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -18.3 +10.1%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 165,694 -11.1%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,943,708 +3.8%

• Total Put/Call .84 -1.2%

• OEX Put/Call 1.07 unch.

• ISE Sentiment 150.0 +22.0

• NYSE Arms .76 -11.1%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.9 +4.9%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .34 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.44 +1.0 basis point 
  

• Volatility(VIX) 16.8 -7.7%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.33 -1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 19.9 -7.8%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.69 -2.69%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.14 -3.4%

• Smart Money Flow Index 22,956.9 +1.6%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  81.6 -6.8

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.016 Trillion +.96%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$8.525 Million

• AAII % Bulls 32.7 -.6%

• AAII % Bears 41.4 -1.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 63.0 (GREED) +2.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 298.62 +2.8%

• Crude Oil 64.45/bbl. +6.2%

• Reformulated Gasoline 207.7 +3.3%

• Natural Gas 3.81 +9.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.3 euros/megawatt-hour +7.0%
  

• Heating Oil 212.4 +5.6% 
• Newcastle Coal 112.0 (1,000/metric ton) +6.2%

• Gold 3,321.8 +1.1%
• Silver 36.0 +9.1%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 453.8 +2.1%

• Copper 484.1 +3.2%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 338.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.5%

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 8,650.0 USD/metric tonne unch.

• CME Lumber  605.5 +2.1%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,435.7 +.8%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 327.5 USD/Short Ton +.8%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.1 -.7 percentage point

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.75 -13.8%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 345.1 -6.2%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.2 -20.6%
  
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $180.0 Billion($1,118.01 Savings Per Taxpayer) +$5.0 Billion
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +12.7% +.2 percentage point

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.13 +.45:  Growth Rate +8.9% -2.9 percentage points, P/E 21.3 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.24% -2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +33.0% +.5 percentage point
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 429.22 +1.09: Growth Rate +14.9% -8.9 percentage point, P/E 32.8 +.6

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.9 -17.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.3 +8.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.4 -4.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-3.8 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 99.9%(+3.7 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.1%(+.1 percentage point) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 6/18

• US Dollar Index 99.22 -.22%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,832.3 +.51%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 104,909.5 -.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 185.7 +1.1%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.74 -.22%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 45.75 -5.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.49% +7.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.625 Trillion -.01%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.656 Billion +36.6%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 49.2 -5.6%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 211.69 -2.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 93.0 -5.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.0 -6.2%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 48.8 -4.7%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 158.5 -1.9%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 96.6 -.04%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.0 -2.3%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.73 -.42%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 119.60 -.86%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.3% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.7% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.0% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.65% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
  
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.76 -7.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -3.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.0 basis points +5.25 basis points
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.5 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 -1.0 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 54.2 -3.5%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 224.0 -8.0% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 235.0 +11.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.9 -3.3%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 141.2 -1.8%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 165.2 -4.3%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 152.0 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 612.0 -4.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .57 -3.0 basis points

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.4% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,470.0B +1.4%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 235,000 +2.0%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% -10.0 basis points
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 51.0 -3.8%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.92% -6.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 226,400 -4.0%

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.5% -.1 percentage point
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +7.0% -4.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $398.6M +175.1%

• Nationwide Gas $3.14/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,626.0 +14.7%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,526.9/40 ft Box +40.6%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,155.0 +3.3%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.5 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 61.0 -13.6%

• Rail Freight Carloads 240,285 -8.5%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,798,889 +19.0%
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +3.5%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +.7%

Leading Sectors

• Oil Service +6.6%

• Semis +6.4%
• Gold & Silver +5.7%

• Social Media +5.0%
  

• Alt Energy +4.3%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Foods -.7%
  

• Utilities -.9%
  

• Insurance -1.1%

• Education -1.7%
  

• Gambling -1.9%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (62)

• BYRN, PSYN, GRRR, TSSI, QUBT, PRCH, MANU, NX, ARQQ, APLD, HUT, QXO, RIOT, INOD, BTDR, SERV, LUNR, BEAM, NAGE, LEGN, SEI, PSIX, SRPT, CRSP, GES, RKLB, NNE, MARA, OUST, SMR, SOUN, LMND, CLPT, TOOT, SPIR, TEM, MRVL, ARCT, SA, AMTM, REVG, PD, DQ, IRDM, AVAV, LTBR, TCBI, LEU, OPFI, CRMD, BC, TWST, ARLO, AGX, CYBR, RDW, BCAX and UCTT

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (12)

• MELI, MTN, IOT, NBBK, TTC, TTAN, DRD, ABM, GIII, BRZE, DOCU and LULU

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deal Hopes, US Jobs Report, Short-Covering, Transport/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.09 -.16% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.50% +11.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% +1.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.3 euros/megawatt-hour -.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.9 +.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.3 -1.0 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.4 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +12.7% +.3 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.13 +.15:  Growth Rate +9.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.6 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.24% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +33.0% +.6 percentage point
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 429.22 +.22: Growth Rate +14.9% unch., P/E 33.1 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .34 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.2 -.9
• US Yield Curve 46.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.1% -1.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.65% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.77 unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 +2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting:  83.4% (-14.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 52.0%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +263 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -76 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• (CASY)/1.97

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in March.
• The NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for May. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, CB Employment Trends Index for May, Apple WWDC, Wells Fargo Industrials Conference, Jefferies & Nasdaq Tech Conference, Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference, Mizuho Tech Conference, (MRVL) and the DA Davidson Tech/Consumer Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -12.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.5 +1.3
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 71.8% of Issues Advancing, 25.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.0 +2.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$251.3M
  
• 71 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
• 43.4% (+6.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 64.2 +2.9

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.7 +1.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 241.5 +1.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,456.4 n/a
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 62.0 (GREED) +2.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.8 -43.2%
  
• Vix 17.2 -6.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .82 -1.2%

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @ZeroHedge

• US Power Grid "Getting Critically Tight" — Time To Consider Backup Power At Home. (graph)
• Ukrainian Capital Burning After Heavy Russian Cruise Missile Strikes.
• America's Energy Shift: From Coal To What? (1950–2024).
• Bongino: FBI Found Sensitive Docs Linked To James Comey; COVID Investigation Reopened.
• MAJOR VICTORY — SCOTUS unanimously STRUCK DOWN a discriminatory rule forcing white and straight plaintiffs to meet a higher bar to prove discrimination. The Court fully adopted AFL’s argument and Justice Thomas cited our brief twice. Title VII protects ALL Americans equally. 
• Biden's Border Nihilism Will Live Long After He Is Gone.
• Lululemon Craters 20% After Slashing Guidance.
• *ISRAEL ASSURED US IT WON'T STRIKE IRAN UNLESS TALKS FAIL: AXIOS.
• The Federal Judiciary's War On Trump Is Not About Protecting Us From Gov't Overreach.

• @MarioNawful  

• CHARLIE KIRK: I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO RECONCILE AT SOME POINT. "I actually think they're going to reconcile at some point though, because deep down, I would like to believe they both want the same thing." (video) 
• BILL ACKMAN: WE ARE STRONGER TOGETHER THAN APART. Hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman just stepped into the Trump-Elon debate, urging both men to reconcile "for the benefit of our country." Bill Ackman: "I support @realDonaldTrump and @elonmusk and they should make peace for the benefit of our great country. We are much stronger together than apart." Ackman's message is clear: personal disagreements shouldn't derail policy victories on the border, economy, and American competitiveness. With both men commanding massive influence, their unity or division could shape the political landscape heading into midterms. 
• ANTHROPIC CEO: GOP AI REGULATION PLAN ‘TOO BLUNT’. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called the GOP’s push to block state AI regulation for 10 years “far too blunt an instrument,” urging a federal transparency standard instead. He shared a scenario where an AI bot threatened to expose a user’s affair, using it to highlight the need for clear oversight. Amodei praised Trump’s efforts to boost AI growth and curb Chinese chip exports, but he stressed the importance of balance. Dario Amodei said: “We must ensure AI is safe, trustworthy and keeps America in the lead.” 
• BREAKING: AIR RAID ALERTS BLANKET UKRAINE. Air raid sirens are reportedly sounding across all of Ukraine, including Kyiv and every major region, after reports of Russia launching several hundred drones, along with cruise and ballistic missiles. Maps show every region under alert as Ukrainian air defenses respond to the widespread assault. 

• @LauraLoomer 

• Donald Trump is NOT in the Epstein Files- here are the facts.
• China is loving this. Not good.

• @TheTranscript 

• Broadcom double beat. CEO: "Broadcom's record first quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA were driven by both AI semiconductor solutions and infrastructure software." $AVGO: -1.3% AH. 
• $AVGO CEO: "Q1 AI revenue grew 77% Y/Y to $4.1B & infrastructure software revenue grew 47% Y/Y to $6.7B. We expect continued strength in AI semiconductor revenue of $4.4B in Q2, as hyperscale partners continue to invest in AI XPUs & connectivity solutions for AI data centers."
• DocuSign double beat. $DOCU: -14% AH.

• @WallStreetApes

• Fired federal government employees are being rehired back as government contractors. This is the bureaucracy cleverly reclaiming their workforce. The Trump admin needs to be aware of this. “I work for a contractor for the federal government and today I onboarded 2 former GSA employees that took the Elon Musk incentive and retired early and now they're back at their same positions just through a government contractor. So basically they took a little bonus and are back and the government is paying them through a contractor to be back at their jobs”. (video)
• It’s VERY clear why Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve refuse to lower interest rates. James O’Keefe EXPOSED Federal Reserve Principal Economist saying Jerome Powell’s legacy is “somebody who held the line against like, Trump.” “Donald Trump is just a crazy person” and conservatives are “dumb” “Under Powell, the Fed has changed to think about equity issues, like racial issues, think about wealth inequality as part of the mandate, as part of the things we are following. Think about climate change.” (video)

• @glennbeck

• I am so sad to see @realDonaldTrump and @elonmusk at odds. Both are such patriots and have done heroic things. Yes, the BBB is bloated and needs cuts. Yes, the Good things in it need to be passed or the economic plan falls apart. Yes, there are no democrats that will make the cuts, so we have a razor thin margin with the GOP. Is there no way we can see our way forward to find a win win? I am with both the president on his economic plan and with Elon on the cuts. Both are critical. How do we not blow up the two greatest men we have seen in DC? We need each other. We cannot continue to divide and expect to gain support for either path.

• @WarClandestine

• My understanding of the OBBB situation: The bill has lots of things that advance Trump’s agenda, like tax cuts, finishing the wall, etc., but there is a lot of pork added in by Congress. However, it’s a budget reconciliation bill, so we only need 50 votes as opposed to 60 in the Senate, so Trump and his team are willing to let Congress get their pork, so long as Trump is able to pass what is needed to advance his agenda. Elon doesn’t like the extra pork and wants to slim it down, and Trump just wants to get his bill passed so he can fix pressing problems. I can see both sides of the argument.

Quot

• @rawsalerts

• #BREAKING: The feud between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk seems to have cooled for now after Musk responded to a post, agreeing that it’s time for the two to make peace.

• @bennyjohnson 

• Proof that Trump is *Not* in the Epstein Files: First off, ask yourself this: If there was incriminating evidence against Trump in the Epstein files, would the Deep State have just kept it a secret and just watched Trump take office -- TWICE?! Please. They released the Access Hollywood tapes without flinching. The media, the DOJ, every Trump-hating institution would’ve nuked him with Epstein Tapes. They didn’t — because it’s false. Here's further proof: (video)

• @C_3C_3

• Elon is 100% about America’s debt. Trump is 100% about DC being a Swamp. The Swamp won’t cut debt because they get rich making debt. Trump has to run America through the Swamp. If Congress was full of Elons it would be easy but it’s full of Swamp Creatures. DC sucks. Facts.
• Bill Clinton right now with the Democrats calling for the Epstein Client List to be released. (pic)
• I know everything about Mohamed Soliman in 3 days. I know nothing about Thomas Crooks in 326 days. How can that be?

• @realannapaulina

• Why has the legislation to ban chinese owned farm land not been put on floor yet
  @HouseGOP? (map)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.0 -1.0 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 49.5 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 95.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.75 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.1 +.7%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.39% +2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.0 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.26%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.18%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Close Lower on Trump/Musk Feud, Rising "Big Beautiful Bill" Passage Uncertainty, Technical Selling, Gambling/Shipping Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.15 +.15% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.40% +4.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% -1.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.84%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.4 euros/megawatt-hour +2.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.7 -3.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.3 +2.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.6 +.9 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +12.4% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.98 +.12:  Growth Rate +9.0% unch., P/E 21.7 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.25% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +32.4% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 429.0 +.25: Growth Rate +14.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.2 +.5
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .37 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.47 +8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 7.1 -.3
• US Yield Curve 46.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% -8.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.8% +2.8 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.65% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.77 -3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 69.2% (-1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 55.4%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -141 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -69 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long