Monday, June 16, 2025

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Nuclear +5.4% 2) Gambling +3.6% 3) Airlines +3.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SATS, SBET, QUBT, ARQQ, URGN, CRCL, NNE, QSG, SYM, TSSI, CTLP, MP, OUST, AAOI, SMR, CLMT, FUTU, EL, AMD, CBRL, NN, LFMD, MGM, ROKU, CRDO, ELVN, ASTS, NBIS, DAR, BRBR, HIMS, ERJ, CYD, TTMI, CELH, FLR, PENN, BG, METC, AVBP, LTBR, CCL, CUK, BILI, CCJ, BKSY, TTAN, LEU, CCJ, UNFI, PSIX, DLO, METC, X, GIII, SOFI, ORLA, INCY, ADM, INCY, CXT, MLNK, BEKE, SAIL, KNF, FIHL, NU, OSCXR, VSCO, BWXT, HIPO, GLXY, OXM, PAHC, RBLX, JBL, GPN, HCSG, AKAM, DOGZ, VSAT and FARO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BEKE 2) ADM 3) IQ 4) SRPT 5) NXE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SATS 2) FWRD 3) OKLO 4) AMD 5) WYNN
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) NFRA 2) IGV 3) XLY 4) XLC 5) SOXX
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (JBL)/2.31
  • (WLY)/1.27
After the Close: 
  •  (LZB)/.93
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for May is estimated to fall -.6% versus a +.1% gain in April.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in April.
  • The Import Price Index MoM for May is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.1% gain in April.
  • The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.4% gain in April.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for May is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.1% gain in April.
  • NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for June. 

9:15 am EST

  • Industrial Production MoM for May is estimated unch. versus unch. in April.
  • Capacity Utilization for May is estimated at 77.7% versus 77.7% in April.
  • Manufacturing Production for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.4% decline in April. 

10:00 am EST

  • Business Inventories for April is estimated unch. versus a +.1% gain in March.
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for June is estimated to rise to 36 versus 34 in May. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, weekly US retail sales reports, IEA monthly report, weekly API crude oil stock report, Wolfe Research Materials of the Future Conference, (MELI) annual meeting, (VRT) annual meeting, (IONQ) annual meeting, (AGX) annual meeting, (BIIB) annual meeting and the (GE) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +6.3% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.6 -20.9
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 72.8% of Issues Advancing, 26.0% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.29 +74.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$240.6M
  • 77 New 52-Week Highs, 29 New Lows
  • 43.7% (+5.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 62.3 -3.9
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.9 +5.4%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 243.0 +.83%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 165.7 +1.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 61.0 (GREED) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 12.7 -41.3%
  • Vix 19.3 -7.3%
  • Total Put/Call .92 +3.4%

Sunday, June 15, 2025

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @RealDonaldTrump
  • @Business 
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @WSJ
  • @GatewayPundit
  • @FoxNews 
  • @MarioNawful
  • IRANIAN MISSILE HITS APARTMENT BUILDING IN ISRAEL. A residential tower in central Israel has taken heavy damage after a direct ballistic missile hit. The strike, launched from Iran, tore into the building in Petah Tikva, leaving debris scattered across the area. (video)
  • SOMETHING’S UP: U.S. AIR FORCE TANKERS HEADING TOWARD EUROPE!? If you looked up today and saw a swarm of massive Air Force planes - you’re not imagining things. A large number of U.S. aerial refueling tankers - essentially flying gas stations - just took off from bases across the country and appear to be en route to Europe. Whatever’s coming, it doesn’t look small. You don’t launch this many tankers unless you’re preparing to keep a lot of jets in the air. (map)
  • IRANIAN MISSILES STRIKE ISRAELI POWER PLANT AND CIVILIAN AREAS. Fires and debris now fill the streets of central Israel as emergency crews rush to impacted zones. The IDF has confirmed multiple missile strikes in the latest barrage, including direct hits in civilian areas of Tel Aviv. In the north, a major power facility in Haifa sustained a direct hit, raising serious concerns over critical infrastructure. (video)
  • TRUMP: U.S. WILL SECURE GREAT TRADE DEALS. "We have our great deals. All we have to is send a letter: this is what you're going to have to pay. But I think we'll have a few new trade deals, yeah." (video)
  • EARTHQUAKE HITS NEAR IRAN’S FORDOW SITE. A magnitude 2.5 quake struck Qom Province just as Israeli strikes were reported in the area. The tremor occurred near the Fordow nuclear facility but was deep enough to suggest natural origins. Still, the timing raises eyebrows as tensions - and explosions - shake northern Iran.
  • BREAKING: AFGHANISTAN THREATENS U.S. IF IT ENTERS WAR WITH IRAN. Afghanistan has issued a stark warning: if the U.S. joins military action against Iran, “we will take actions as well.” It’s a direct threat from a country with 2 decades of battlefield experience against American forces. What was once a regional conflict is now drawing in old enemies with long memories.
  • PANIC IN IRAN: TEHRAN RESIDENTS JAM HIGHWAYS TO ESCAPE ADDITIONAL AIRSTRIKE. The capital of Iran is in full-blown panic mode. Massive traffic jams stretch for miles as residents flee the city, terrified of another Israeli air force attack. This comes after recent strikes have rattled nerves and sparked a wave of fear across the country. Cars are crawling out of the city like it’s the end of the world - or at least the start of another one.
  • @LauraLoomer   
  • NEW THREAD: STATE DEPARTMENT VETTING CRISIS CONTINUES. OBAMA HOLDOVERS WHO PARTICIPATED IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE JCPOA (otherwise known as the Iran Nuclear Deal) STILL EMPLOYED AT US STATE DEPARTMENT WHERE THEY ARE ADVISING ON IRAN NEGOTIATIONS IN THE NEW TRUMP ADMINISTRATION.
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @WallStreetApes
  • George Soros funded the Los Angeles ICE riots. - He funded the No Kings Protest. - He funded the anti- Elon Musk protests to stop DOGE. "George Soros honestly is misanthropic. He claims to be doing good but actually he is tearing down the fabric of society." Elon Musk says George Soros is responsible for destabilizing our cities, “How can we be the most powerful country in the world, and it's not safe to walk around our cities? What the hell is going on? — Soros”. (video)
  • @DerrickEvans4WV
  • @BrilynHollyhand
  • @DC_Draino
  • The Minnesota assassin was not only wearing a police officer uniform with taser and vest, but they also had an SUV with police lights that looked like a squad car. This was a professional hit job. (video)
  • @nicksortor
  • @GeneralFlynn
  • ATTENTION! I’ve been in the intelligence game long enough to know a psy-op when I see one. The “No Kings” protests aren’t spontaneous. They’re part of a broader strategy to undermine President Trump’s administration. The NGOs involved, Indivisible, CHIRLA, Unión del Barrio, and others, are part of a network of nearly 200 organizations, many of which have ties to the Democratic Party’s activist wing. The FBI’s even sniffing around, with Director Kash Patel probing the funding behind recent anti-ICE riots in LA. Why? Because when protests turn into looting and arson, it’s not about free speech, it’s about intent to destabilize.
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @ElectionWiz
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @DataRepublican
  • Vance Boelter, the suspect in today's shootings, was the CEO of an international NGO called the Red Lion Group. But I couldn't find any photographs or digital records of its work, only a generic website. The Red Lion Group appears to have run out of funding a month or two ago, as that is when he started looking for executive-level roles.
  • @toolandtea
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.5 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 46.75 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 94.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 -.04% 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.9 +.9%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.41% +1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.1 -3.2%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.23%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, June 14, 2025

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @LauraLoomer
  • BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (SHW) and (SCHW).
  • @IGSquawk 
  • @WSJ
  • @CNBC
  • @Osint613
  • @FoxNews 
  • @GatewayPundit 
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @VigilantFox
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • It's Wall Street vs Main Street: Professional investors sold $4.2 billion in US equities last week, according to Bank of America. Over the last 4 weeks, institutional selling reached $2.0 billion per week on average. On the other hand, retail investors bought $700 million last week, bringing the 4-week average of purchases to $400 billion. Over the last 12 weeks, individual investors have purchased $1.6 billion in US stocks on average each week. As the market rebounded, professional investors dumped stocks while retail bought. The sentiment gap between institutional and retail investors is historic. (graph)
  • The labor market is softening: Initial jobless claims came at 248,000 for the week ending June 7th, the highest reading since October 2024. The highest number of claims were reported in California, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. As a result, the 4-week moving average rose to 240,250, the highest since August 2023. Meanwhile, the number of people receiving jobless benefits soared to 1.96 million, the highest since November 2021. Excluding 2020 and the 2021 recovery, this was the highest reading since February 2018. The labor market is clearly weakening. (graph)
  • BREAKING: Oil prices are now expected to rise to a high of $94.10 this year as Israel strikes Iranian energy facilities, per @Kalshi. Inflation is likely to rebound sharply as a result. (graph)
  • @Wideawake_media

Friday, June 13, 2025

Evening Headlines

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @MarioNawful