Monday, July 07, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @ZeroHedge 
  • @CNBC 
  • @GatewayPundit
  • Wait, What? If There Was No Epstein Client List Then Why Did NY Courts Refuse The Gateway Pundit’s Request for the List in Based on an Anonymous ‘John Doe’. Who Was On the List?
  • @MarioNawful 
  • @GenFlynn
  • @Cfojs
  • @TaraBull808
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @GlobalMktObserv
  • Hedge fund short levels are historically elevated: Hedge funds' long/short ratio fell to the lowest in 1.5 years. The ratio has fallen even below the February 2025 level before the US stock market dropped. Hedge funds are betting on a market pullback. (graph)
  • @AdameMedia
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @FinanceLancelot 
  • @thereallorilove
  • @Ultrafrog17
  • @HustleBitch_
  • MARCH: Bondi says the FBI has "tens of thousands" of Epstein videos. APRIL: Patel says they vanished. JULY: DOJ says no client list. No names. Suicide.. Case closed. They had the tapes. Now they have amnesia. (video)
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.5 +1.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 48.25 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 95.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.44%. 
  • Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?: EU 75% +18.0 percentage points, India 85.0% unch., Japan 53.0% +10.0 percentage points 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.0 +.09%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.03 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 74.3 +.6%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.38% unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.1 -.7%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.24%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.07%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, US-Global Tariff Uncertainty, BBB Passage Profit-Taking, Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing Inline
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.0 +3.0%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .75 +29.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 73.1 +.02% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.99 -.37%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 192.6 +.6%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.80 +1.7%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.8 +10.2% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 168.0 -8.0
  • Total Put/Call .89 -23.9%
  • NYSE Arms .72 -29.4%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$361.9M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.74 +2.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 374.5 +2.4%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 200.0 -8.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.2 -1.8%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 128.4 -1.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 85.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.2 +.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 155.9 +2.9%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 83.0 +.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.0 -.15%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -26.5 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 2.75 basis point -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .25 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 146.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 598.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 55.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.45%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.39% +5.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.35% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 95.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.6 euros/megawatt-hour +.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.4 +2.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.3 -.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.4 -2.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +1.7% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 281.17 +.47:  Growth Rate +10.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 22.2 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 447.18 +.70: Growth Rate +19.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.5 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.47 -9.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.9 +.2
  • US Yield Curve 49.0 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.6% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 45.7% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.71 +9.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 62.7% (-1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 45.1%(+1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Polymarket:
  • Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?: 
  • EU 73.0% +16.0 percentage points 
  • India 78.0% -7.0 percentage points
  • Canada 69.0% unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +23 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -100 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my industrial/tech/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -2.7% 2) Energy -2.0% 3) Airlines -1.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • PSIX, VNOM, STR, RGLD, ASGN, KMTS, AAOI, DQ, GLXY, RGC, BULL, BMNR, APGE, LZMH and CORZ
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) VOR 2) TEVA 3) SYM 4) TER 5) EMB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TSLA 2) DNUT 3) STLA 4) FTRE 5) CORZ
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) FXR 2) FXO 3) FXU 4) XLV 5) FDN

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Electrification +4.2% 2) Gold & Silver +.7% 3) Social Media +.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • KALV, ZVRA, SDM, ENVX, WNS, BSGM, PAHC, BILI, ESTA, SAND, CHEF, RKLB, RUN, PPTA, ORKA, NAVI, NEON, ATAT, CSIQ, GSAT, FRO, CHA, GEO, METC, YUMC, BIDU, TSCO, ESI, TSSI, U, LI, AXGN, SOUN, ACI and CXW
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ASST 2) KBWB 3) KOS 4) PRME 5) TRIP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MBIO 2) KALV 3) PRME 4) COGT 5) WNS
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLP 3) SMH 4) KRE 5) MSTY
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • (PENG)/.32
Economic Releases 
6:00 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June is estimated to fall to 98.6 versus 98.8 in May.
11:00 am EST
  • The NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for June is estimated to fall to +3.13% versus a prior estimate of a +3.2% increase.
3:00 pm EST
  • Consumer Credit for May is estimated to fall to $10.55B versus $17.873B in April. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The NY Fed 1Y Consumer Inflation Expectations Index for June, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly retail sales reports, EIA short-term energy outlook report, weekly API crude oil stock report, TD Cowen Energy/Power/Utilities Conference and the (AZZ) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -5.1% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.6 -.3
  • 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
  • 21.1% of Issues Advancing, 77.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .68 -33.3% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$253.8M
  • 96 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
  • 53.4% (-2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 65.5 -2.6
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 73.7% +.8%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 248.9 -.4%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 167.7 +.84%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 76.0 (EXTREME GREED) -2.0
  • Polymarket: US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 40.0% +13.0 percentage points
  • Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August: India 79.0% -6.0 percentage points, Canada 70% +1.0 percentage point
  • 1-Day Vix 9.7 -34.0%
  • Vix 17.7 +1.2%
  • Total Put/Call .87 -25.6%