Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Surging Long-Term Rates, US-Global Trade Deal Uncertainty, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Pharma Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.9 -2.0%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .69 +25.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 77.7 +.5% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.96 -.31%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 194.56 +.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.75 -1.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.7 -1.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 193.0 +7.0

• Total Put/Call .76 -10.6%

• NYSE Arms .60 -35.5%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$89.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.6 +1.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 377.0 +.33%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 201.0 +11.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.9 +.4%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 127.96 -.31%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 86.0 unch.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.8 -.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 156.2 +.03%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 77.0 -1.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.97 -.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -25.25 basis points -.5 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 1.5 basis point +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 unch.
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 146.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 599.0 +1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 53.0 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.14%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.49% +5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.4 euros/megawatt-hour -2.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.8 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 35.6 +3.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(27 of 500 reporting) +8.3% +7.5 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 281.82 +.02:  Growth Rate +10.8% unch., P/E 22.3 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.42% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 449.08 +.18: Growth Rate +20.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.4 +.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .57 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.33 -11.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 9.7 +.2
• US Yield Curve 53.0 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.6% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.5% -1.5 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% -2.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.73% +9.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.77 unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 52.6% (-6.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 49.2%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 

• EU 38.0% +1.0 percentage point.
• India 57.0% +13.0 percentage points.
• Japan 21.0% +2.0 percentage points
• South Korea  40.0% -3.0 percentage points.

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +17 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -46 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +103 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my utility/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -3.5% 2) Regional Banks -2.5% 3) Pharma -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• OXY, ELVN, WAT, BLK, DAVE, HELE, ACI, STT, FBK, WFC, RARE, NEM, LBRDK, NATL, EHC, NEGG and BGL

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) OPEN 2) CAH 3) ABT 4) MVST 5) METC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SLP 2) RCKT 3) FTRE 4) BHVN 5) EHC

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IBB 2) KBWB 3) XLE 4) XLK 5) VIS

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +1.9% 2) Alt Energy +1.9% 3) Disk Drives +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• USAR, MP, SBET, KC, QSG, METC, OUST, TTD, BIDU, JOBY, SMCI, BABA, GDS, BKSY, REPL, BILI, QS, TWLO, AMD, TNXP, BEP, TBBB, ACHR, ONC, NFG, WB, ASTS, LITE, KSPI, BEPC, MRC, SE, VIPS, NBIS, DNOW, JD, NVDA, AEHR, TBBK, RKLB, YMM, TTMI, EH, TSM, CORZ, SYM, ZK, C, SNPS, NU and ENVX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) REPL 2) OPEN 3) BLK 4) KC 5) NTNX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TTD 2) AMD 3) OPEN 4) NFG 5) C

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) KRE 3) ITB 4) SMH 5) KIE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ASML)/6.10
• (BAC)/.86
• (CBSH)/1.04
• (GS)/9.65
• (JNJ)/2.68
• (MTB)/3.99
• (MS)/1.98
• (PNC)/3.55
• (PGR)/4.45
• (PLD)/1.41 

After the Close: 

• (AIR)/1.00
• (AA)/.33
• (KMI)/.28
• (SLG)/1.39
• (SNV)/1.26
• (UAL)/3.81
• (LVS)/.53
• (HTLD)/-.09 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The PPI Final Demand MoM for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in May.
• The PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for June is estimated rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in May.
• NY Fed Services Business Activity for July. 

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for June is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.2% decline in May.
• Capacity Utilization for June is estimated at 77.4% versus 77.4% in May.
• Manufacturing Production for June is estimated unch. versus a +.1% gain in May.

2:00 pm EST

• Fed's Beige Book release. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.9 -3.7
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 25.5% of Issues Advancing, 72.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .70 -24.7% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$126.6M
  
• 81 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 52.4% (-3.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.8 -5.8

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 79.2% +2.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 251.5 +.2%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 167.9 +1.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 76.0 (EXTREME GREED) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 9.4 -24.2%
  
• Vix 17.1 -.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -9.4%
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• EU 33.0% -4.0 percentage points
• India 41.0% -3.0 percentage points.
• Japan 19.0% unch.
• South Korea  39.0% -4.0 percentage points.

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Tokyo highlighted its concern over probing activity by Chinese ships and aircraft around Japan and Taiwan with new warnings in its annual defense white paper.
• China’s home prices fell at a faster pace in June, underscoring growing speculation for additional measures to revive the property market. 
• China to Release Q2 GDP and Key Economic Data: Live Updates.
• Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to its highest level since 2008 on Tuesday amid concerns over fiscal spending ahead of an upper house election. 
• Traders are being forced to pay attention to social posts from an unlikely official: Federal Housing Finance Agency head Bill Pulte.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Nvidia plans to resume sales of its H20 AI accelerator to China, after it received assurances from the US government that it would be granted licenses.
• LG Group is rolling out a new version of its flagship artificial intelligence model, billing it as South Korea’s first hybrid-reasoning AI system.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge 

• CPI Preview: Will The Impact Of Tariffs Finally Emerge. (graph)
• Zuckerberg "Focused" On Building Mega Gigawatt-Size Data Centers.
• The Complete Bank Earnings Playbook.
• Supreme Court Allows Trump To Fire Education Department Employees.
• White House Unveils Sweeping MAHA Changes In Nation's Food Supply Chain.
• Cuomo "In It To Win It", Staying In NYC Mayoral Race As Independent.
• Leaked Messages Reveal Andreessen's Fury: 'Universities Declared War On 70% Of The Country'.
• China-Linked Tech Tycoon Neville Roy Singham's Niece Backs NYC's Next Marxist Mayor. 
• Adobe Digital Price Index Torpedoes Democrats' Inflationary Tariff Storm Propaganda.
• More shorts obliterated. *TRADE DESK TO REPLACE ANSYS IN S&P 500.
• *US IMPOSES 17% DUTY ON MOST TOMATO IMPORTS FROM MEXICO.
• The Systematic Unraveling Of The Administrative State.   
• Goldman client poll on next Fed chair. (table)
• Goldman Re-Affirms Gold $4,000 Target As China's 'Stealth' Buying Continues.
• Gold, Oil, & Crypto Pump'n'Dump Amid "Incredibly Quiet" Stock Trading Ahead Of CPI. 

• @GatewayPundit

• Alarming Report: Current Secret Service Director Sean Curran Signed Off on Unacceptable Security Plan the Day Before Butler Rally Where Trump Was Nearly Killed.

• @MarioNawful  

• THE PENTAGON JUST GAVE GROK THE KEYS TO THE WAR ROOM. Elon’s model just inked a $200M contract with the Department of Defense. Grok is now officially on the federal menu: from logistics and cybersecurity to the black-budget stuff we don’t talk about. Forget slow, bloated AI models. The government’s betting on one that argues back. This model was built to disagree, reason in real time, and deal with live data - not spit out sanitized answers. In national security workflows, being agreeable is a bug, not a feature. And Yes, It Speaks Fluent Government xAI is sprinting toward full compliance: FedRAMP, FISMA, and the rest of the acronym jungle. Today it’s $200M. Tomorrow? The trillion-dollar federal AI stack.
• AUSTRALIA PREPS FOR THE WORST: TAIWAN TENSIONS ESCALATE. Australia just launched its largest military drill in history: Talisman Sabre 2025. Over 35,000 troops from 19 nations are training across land, sea, and air, with live fire, amphibious landings, and new strike weapons in the mix. Defense officials say no troop commitments yet, but the pressure’s rising as U.S, allies brace for a possible Taiwan flashpoint. China’s watching. So is the world.

• @TheChiefNerd

• TUCKER: “I know a lot of people who've been injured or killed by the [COVID] vax. I think it's completely evil and I'm shocked by the fact that … the Moderna vax for kids was authorized … I think the people who make it should go to prison … I think it's a deadly product.” (video)

• @stkirsch

• Fantastic new film just released. You can watch it right here for free. "Inside the Vaccine Trials." Every American should watch this to see how the drug companies lied to us and the US government covered it up. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• Technology is eliminating more jobs, but you have to admit, this is really cool. Drones are being used to power wash the outside of skyscraper buildings. This seems like the perfect solution for an extremely dangerous problem.
• WOW! Democrat Governor of Maine Janet Mills accused of taking bribes for illegal property transfers for Chinese National Drug Farms. (video)

• @bennyjohnson

• EXCLUSIVE: Lara Trump says the Trump administration Will Release more Epstein Evidence and Will Have More Transparency. She says that President Trump Hears the Base on this Issue and knows how "Important" it is and Trump will "set things right." "There needs to be more transparency. I think that will happen. I know this is important to the President. He is frustrated." "He is going to want to set things right. I believe there will be more coming and anything they are able to release they will try to get out. They hear it and understand it." "To anyone worked up out there, there is no plot to keep this information away. I'm sure we will know down the line..." (video)

• @ggreenwald

• The biggest scandal of the last 5 years isn't that corporate media united to lie to the public about Biden's cognitive decline, though that is a gigantic scandal. It's that unelected people exploited it to run the country in secret in Biden's name.
  Quote

• @HealthRanger

• One of the key takeaways from the Japanese COVID jab database disclosure today is that if you took a COVID jab and you did NOT die within a year, your odds of dying are now no higher than the death odds of an unvaccinated person. The COVID jabs actually produced the most deaths in people 60 - 120 days after they took the jab (any jab). These odds increase with multiple subsequent jabs, and I'll cover that in another post. (graph)

• @EYakoby

• The pro-Palestinian church shooting in Lexington, Kentucky, wasn’t some isolated event. It wasn’t even the first time something like this happened in the past year. The pro-Palestinian movement is a terrorist organization. (pic)

• @nicksortor

• TRUMP: “I guarantee Biden knew NOTHING about the pardons signed by the autopen.” “The autopen is maybe one of the biggest scandals that we've had in 50-100 years.” The “pardons” are NULL AND VOID! Buckle up, Schiff, Fauci, and Cheney.

• @PeterSweden7 

• JUST IN. The Netherlands will be RATIONING electricity to ease stress from the power grid. How is something like this happening in Europe in 2025???

• @MichaelAArouet

• Venezuela used to be twice as wealthy as Chile. Then Chile introduced free market principles, while Venezuela was ruled by socialists. Now Chile is the wealthiest large country in South America and Venezuela the poorest. Difference between capitalism and socialism visualized.

• @Rasmussen_Poll

• Georgia 2020 Trust Deficit. Forensic audit - blocked. 100 drop boxes - no surveillance videos. 15 election routers - vanished. 10 Dominion tabulators - vanished. 20K ballot images - vanished. 148K Mail-Ballot signatures - unverified. 150K ballots - STILL locked up.

• @TonySeruga

• Project Veritas: Text Messages Show Secret Service Agent Disclosing Operational Details to Stranger, Disparaging President Trump. This betrayal is particularly chilling as it coincides with the one-year anniversary of the July 13, 2024, assassination attempt on President Trump – a stark reminder of the relentless threats facing our leaders. Text messages with Hendrickson reveal this agent engaging in egregious violations of Secret Service safety and confidentiality protocols. Without knowing the identity of our female journalist, Hendrickson: (video)

• @RodDMartin

• TRUMP. KENNEDY. WHO. CHINA. Trump just pulled the U.S. out of the WHO—again. RFK Jr. backed him. The global elites are panicking. Here’s what the Enemedia isn’t telling you. (thread)

• @EricLDaugh

• JUST IN: Florida airports have officially been notified that under a new law signed by Governor Ron DeSantis, they need to submit MONTHLY REPORTS on geoengineering and weather modification activities... ...or lose state funding. We were told it doesn't exist, though. (pic)

• @rawsalerts

• #BREAKING: The New York Times reports that Dr. Fauci’s 'pardon' was confirmed to have been signed by an autopen and received late-night approval from a White House aide.

• @thehealthbot

• New documents indicate the entire justification for vaccine mandates was based on a lie - and that public health officials knew it:

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.0 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 46.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.04%. 
• Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?

• EU 37.0% -7.0 percentage points
• India 44.0% -9.0 percentage points.
• Japan 19.0% -3.0 percentage points. 
• South Korea  43.0% +13.0 percentage points.

• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.99 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.84 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 77.7 +.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.44% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.3 -1.2%.  
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.24%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.18%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.