Tuesday, July 22, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @ZeroHedge 
  • @TheTranscript 
  • Intuitive Surgical double beat. "The higher Q2 25 revenue was driven by growth in da Vinci procedure volume, higher da Vinci system placements, and an increase in the installed base of systems." $ISRG: -2% AH.
  • @MarioNawful 
  • ELON: EUROPE IS ON TRACK FOR "WIDESPREAD SLAUGHTER".“Terrorist attacks in Europe are rising weekly, but legacy media downplays this. If current trends continue, the result will be widespread slaughter of innocent people—your friends, family, children. The numbers are clear.” (video)
  • @elonmusk
  • @LauraLoomer 
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @seanmdav
  • @ShadowofEzra 
  • @daveasprey
  • @JimFergusonUK
  • @GubbaHomestead
  • @Clay4MainStreet
  • @wideawake_media 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.25 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 42.5 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%. 
  • Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?
  • EU 38.0% +9.0 percentage points.
  • India 9.0% -7.0 percentage points.
  • Japan 100.0% +85.0 percentage points. 
  • South Korea  51.0% +27.0 percentage points.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.03 -.18%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 76.8 +1.6%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.35% +1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.6 -1.6%.  
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.81%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.17%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Commodity/Retail Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.34% -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.1 euros/megawatt-hour -.13%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.7 -4.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.7 -1.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.0 -1.0 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(88 of 500 reporting) +7.4% -2.9 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 282.91 +.16:  Growth Rate +10.7% unch., P/E 22.3 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.42% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +45.5% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 451.96 +.46: Growth Rate +19.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.1 -.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 7.3 -.4
  • US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.9% -1.0 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.73% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.85 -1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 55.9% (-.1 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 48.4%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Polymarket:
  • Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August? 
  • EU 25.0% -4.0 percentage points.
  • India 7.0% -9.0 percentage points.
  • Japan 14.0% -1.0 percentage point. 
  • South Korea  25.0% +1.0 percentage point.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -109 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +53 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +140 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/industrial/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +1.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy +3.2% 2) Retail +2.9% 3) Oil Service +2.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MEDP, KSS, BGL, AEHR, IQV, DQ, DHI, DNA, NEGG, LGIH, ICLR, STOK, DFH, AMR, PHM, SEDG, AMRC, BTU, NOC, KBH, HCC, JACK, CCS, LQDA, BZH, QS, PONY, TOL, CRL, RH, LEN, CNR, BULL, MHO, FRPT, TMHC, SG, BTDR, IBP, ENPH, BRKR, HASI, LUCK, ZLAB, SSYS, CEPO, AXGN, SRPT, ALB, DGX, GPC, HELE, GLXY, SNV, RKT, SQM, IPG, OMC, ABR, AEM, TIGR, TTAM, WPM, YETI, COOP, PPTA, IVZ, PCAR, M, INDV, SSTK, EH, RVTY, KHC, PK, OSCR, SNAP, MMYT, UNFI, BIDU, UNFI, SNPS, XPEV, XRAY, RIO, STNE, RTO, PEB, WT, ARLP, IREN, CAG, DPZ, CAKE, WAT, WTFC, PPC, CMI and WAL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) DNUT 2) STM 3) CHGG 4) GPRO 5) WOOF
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AEHR 2) DHI 3) MEDP 4) ICLR 5) AMPY
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) KRE 2) XLI 3) KWEB 4) XLF 5) OIH
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (APH)/.67
  • (T)/.53
  • (BSX)/.73
  • (CME)/2.91
  • (FI)/2.43
  • (FCX)/.45
  • (GEV)/1.51
  • (GD)/3.55
  • (HAS)/.78
  • (HLT)/2.05
  • (LW)/.63
  • (LII)/6.86
  • (MCO)/3.39
  • (COOP)/3.18
  • (NEE)/1.01
  • (NTRS)/2.06
  • (NVR)/106.20
  • (OTIS)/1.03
  • (TEL)/2.08 
After the Close: 
  • (ALK)/1.54
  • (GOOG)/2.18
  • (CMG)/.33
  • (CCI)/1.00
  • (CSX)/.42
  • (IBM)/2.65
  • (KNX)/.33
  • (LVS)/.53
  • (MAT)/.16
  • (OII)/.40
  • (ORLY)/.78
  • (RJF)/2.37
  • (RHI)/.40 
  • (NOW)/3.57
  • (SSNC)/1.39
  • (TSLA)/.39
  • (URI)/10.51
  • (WH)/1.16
  • (ROK)/2.67
  • (TMO)/5.23 
Economic Releases 
10:00 am EST
  • Existing Home Sales for June is estimated to fall to 4.0M versus 4.03M in May.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,387,170 barrels versus a -3,859,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +131,830 barrels versus a +3,399,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -221,500 barrels versus a +4,173,000 barrel gain the prior week. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 20Y T-Bond auction and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +18.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.2 -2.2
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 66.4% of Issues Advancing, 31.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .90 -36.2% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$47.2M
  • 56 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
  • 54.4% (+3.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.9 -.9
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 75.8% -.8%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 248.13 -.48%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.4 -2.4%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 72.0 (GREED down from EXTREME GREED) -3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 8.1 -8.3%
  • Vix 16.9 +1.3%
  • Total Put/Call .92 +3.4%
  • Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?
  • EU 25.0% -4.0 percentage points.
  • India 7.0% -9.0 percentage points.
  • Japan 21.0% +6.0 percentage points. 
  • South Korea  25.0% +1.0 percentage point.

Monday, July 21, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @ZeroHedge 
  • @CNBC 
  • @LauraLoomer 
  • @TonyClimate 
  • @NextNewsNetwork
  • @JimFergusonUK
  • ZUCKERBERG FUNDING mRNA EXPERIMENTS ON WILDLIFE & FOOD SUPPLY. Dr. Bryan Ardis drops the bomb: “100 MILLION animals have been injected with mRNA — and hardly anyone knows about it!” Mark Zuckerberg and his wife’s foundation are funding mRNA tech in wild deer and other species. Meanwhile, livestock and even vegetables are being dosed — without your consent. This isn’t science. It’s systemic tampering with creation itself. WHAT THIS MEANS:
  • @C_3C_3
  • @NicHulscher
  • @newstart_2024
  • @LauraAboli_X
  • Trump Just Laid the Groundwork to Dismantle the Deep State — Legally. President Trump has quietly issued an executive order creating “Schedule G”: a new classification of federal employees that could radically shift the balance of power in Washington. What does it mean? It means thousands of entrenched, unelected bureaucrats; the so-called ‘permanent government’, can now be removed from positions of influence if they’re not aligned with the administration’s agenda.
  • @goddeketal
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.75 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 42.5 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%. 
  • Polymarket:  Which Countries Will the US Agree to Tariff Agreements with Before August?
  • EU 29.00% +2.0 percentage points.
  • India 16.0% -9.0 percentage points.
  • Japan 15.0% -5.0 percentage points. 
  • South Korea  24.0% -3.0 percentage point.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.99 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 76.4 -.1%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.37% -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.9 -.8%.  
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.22%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.10%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.